BTRTN Midterm Election Predictions: GOP Will Take the House, Senate Fate Will Await Georgia Run-Off

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers just issued its official predictions for the Midterm Elections:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/11/btrtn-2022-official-midterm-election.html

Excerpts: "Roughly a month ago, The New York Times made the following statement: '…the final stretch of the 2022 midterms defies predictability.' For those of us who predict elections, that is a daunting statement. They could not be more right – and that statement was made before a number of races tightened considerably in the last few weeks...
"Senate: The Democrats will emerge, at some point in the days after Election Day, when all the counting is done, with 49 seats and the GOP will have 50. We are predicting that Georgia will go to run-off, as in 2020, as neither candidate will crack the 50% mark required for election. The Georgia run-off – with the fate of the Senate at stake, again echoing 2020 -- will be on December 6."
"House: The GOP will take control of the House of Representatives, adding 21 seats to come away with a 234 to 201 margin."
"Governors: The Democrats will come away with a net pick-up of one governor seat, flipping two to offset one flip by the GOP, but the GOP will still hold a slight majority of state houses, 27 to 23."
"We must be quick to add that the Senate has a wide range of potential outcomes. With the 8 battleground races all within three points, and most even closer than that, the true range of final Democratic seats is anywhere from 46 to 54.
"We will be confronted once again with a nail-bitingly slow count in Pennsylvania, for sure, where election officials have already said it could take several days to count the votes – and by implication, given the closeness of the Fetterman/Oz race, declare a winner. As in 2020, please don’t panic if Oz pulls out to an illusory lead..."

[SheltieLover]

1. Not buying their bs

Hold the vision of a huge, Blue tsunami as if it were already history.

[yankee87]

2. Blue tsumani

Going to add 2 to 3 senators and same in the house

[lees1975]

3. With the proliferation of Republican funded polls to skew the composite data

and the relative inaccuracy of these polls built into the system this time around, I'm not really buying that.

Yep, it may take some days for it all to shake out, that's OK, nerve-wracking but OK, but when its over, I'm not sure these numbers are accurate. I think Democrats will do much better than we think we will do.

[tgards79]

4. Hopefully true

But you have to understand all the polling "aggregators" recognize and know how to adjust for the Republican-partisan polls. It's not hard and of course they all recognize it and account for it. Nate Silver devoted time on a poscast to this specific issue. Even if you completely ignore the "GOP polls" (and they were more accurate in 2020 than the mainstream ones), the generic ballot favors the GOP.