Russian sociologist explains when Putin's entourage may overthrow him

[Uncle Joe]

(snip)

“And this dulled discontent, which already breaks through in some phone conversations, will turn into some real actions, in particular, the fact that Putin will really be overthrown. But it will happen, as I said, when they realize that this is the end. And they will understand that this is the end when the Russian army flees from occupied Ukrainian territories.”

According to Eidman, Russia’s weakness against the background of the Ukrainian counter-offensive “will be fatal for Putin’s authority and that of his regime.”

“When they (the Russian population and the ruling elite) understand that no victory is in sight, it will be a humiliating defeat,” the expert said.

“They will, of course, start passing the buck. And it will be the president, i.e., Putin. And that’s why, I think, his regime won’t survive after such a defeat, not that long, but not for several months after such a defeat. And defeat would be not just surrendering everything, including Crimea, but even retreating to the positions of Feb. 24, 2022.”

(snip)

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-sociologist-explains-putin-entourage-184800483.html

[EYESORE 9001]

1. May that day come soon

The world will be a better place without Putin in it.

[Igel]

4. Sure.

But then it gets dangerous.

A humiliated, grievance-nurturing country is 1920s Germany.

A lot of the current problem is that this characterized Russians over 40 in 1995. I knew some that had *not* immigrated to the US and they were bitter over all the "sacrifices" and "good" they did in Central Europe and how they were "betrayed" and "abused", even "lied to." With the post-1991 crime and social threat it was enough to drive even relative liberals to push for security over liberty. (That's not an uncommon thing, to be honest. Many societies value security and stability--whether personal safety or personal finances or both--over personal or civil liberties.)

[EYESORE 9001]

5. The oligarchs will install a new figurehead, so the people can still have their strongman

I hope they choose more wisely next time. When they anointed poot, they wanted a clone of Chile’s Pinochet - a ruthless MFer who would keep a jackboot on the throat of dissidents. He’s proven to be a madman who threatens to start lobbing nukes if the going gets too tough. He’s bad for business, so poot’s gotta go. I believe his replacement is imminent.

[kimbutgar]

2. Let it happen like now!

[2naSalit]

3. Hurry up!

[Beastly Boy]

6. I don't believe there is any research behind Eldman's arguments.

His arguments may apply to a "normal" society, but situation in Russia is far from being normal. Even in the best of times, the vast majority of Russians tend to cling to their despots, and in the time of war this urge gets worse. It will take a lot more than dulled discontent to move the Russian people to any action against the government. To them, "no victory in sight" does not translate to a humiliating defeat. This would only be the case in a more politically diverse society, with some sort of democratic institutions in place - something that is being taken for granted by us, and, apparently, by Eldman, but something that doesn't apply to Russia.

Despite the elites in academia and government being fully aware of Putin's incompetence of criminal proportions, they are not in the position to diminish his authority.ore adversity is likely to galvanize the nation around Putin. All the levers of government will remain in Putin's hands: he spent the last twenty years to make this the case.

I have no expectations of any changes in Russia from within. It will take a complete collapse of the Russian society on all levels to have this happen. And that will take more than Russia losing the military campaign in Ukraine.

[Aristus]

7. I think if they were going to, they would have by now.

Cowardice is incredibly paralyzing.