Ecosystem collapse could occur "surprisingly quickly," study finds

[marmar]

Ecosystem collapse could occur "surprisingly quickly," study finds
A new model suggests feedback loops could accelerate environmental breakdowns

By MATTHEW ROZSA
Staff Writer
PUBLISHED JULY 9, 2023 10:00AM (EDT)


(Salon) On the heels of several consecutive record-breaking "hottest days ever," it has become increasingly clear that there is an urgent need to address human-caused climate change. After all, a recent study published in the scientific journal PNAS revealed that the types of so-called compound drought and heatwaves that humanity is currently experiencing — these are known as CDHW events — are projected to become what co-author Dr. Michael E. Mann labelled a "new abnormal."

By the late 21st century, the PNAS authors contend, approximately one-fifth of the species will endure CDHW events roughly twice a year, each one lasting approximately 25 days, with all of the wildfires and blistering, scorching heat they entail.

Yet humanity may not need to wait until the late 21st Century for climate change to bring about real-world apocalyptic conditions. This will especially be so if ecosystems undergo abrupt changes after too many extreme weather events occur, one after another after another. According to a new study in the scientific journal Nature Sustainability, that scenario might indeed occur sooner rather than later.

"We previously knew that ecosystems can undergo very abrupt changes," Professor Simon Willcock of Rothamsted Research and Bangor University, who co-authored the study, told Salon by email. He added that this knowledge had been derived from past observations of small increases in stress on particular ecosystems. As one example, deforestation in one tropical region might turn a rainforest into a "savanna-type system," which is a drier, grassier ecosystem with far fewer trees. ................(more)

https://www.salon.com/2023/07/09/ecosystem-collapse-could-occur-surprisingly-quickly-study-finds/

[GreenWave]

1. And further sad news from Mars!

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33618.0

So escape to Mars may not be an option except for Musk, of course.

I will hunt deep into the night for a study from Japan IIRC that shows ocean convection currents can shut down if too much fresh water melt reaches the drop off regions of said currents. Perhaps it has been rebutted but if not, rapid glaciation and blistering heat near the equator and very thin bands when life as we used to know it could exist.

[moniss]

7. I'm willing to see Musk

get in his rocket and go right now. A Go Fund Me would raise millions for the flight in a matter of minutes.

[Martin68]

2. The only environmental catastrophe I truly fear is the disruption of the ocean currents

that provide nutrients to marine organisms and moderate temperatures the make life in the UK (and other areas) possible.

[Evolve Dammit]

10. I worry about that as well, and also the melting permafrost from underneath (Greenland, etc.)

[Ferrets are Cool]

12. This, and because I live on the Gulf Coast, the hurricanes which will be ever more devastating.

[bronxiteforever]

3. K&R. In 1965 Lyndon Johnson received a scientific report

that included a sobering discussion on climate change. In part, it read:

Through his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment. Within a few generations he is burning the fossil fuels that slowly accumulated in the earth over the past 500 million years … The climatic changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings.

We are now well into this “vast geophysical experiment” of burning fossil fuels. The results of the experiment include a multitude of failing or changing natural systems. Primarily the result is planetary chaos impacting our species very survival. Paraphrasing FDR, we need action and action now. Time is not on humanity’s side.

This was a great article.

[calimary]

4. Better believe it - while there still may be time.

MAY be time.

[Evolve Dammit]

11. May is the operative word. No guarantee. We may have set it in a death spiral.

[LymphocyteLover]

5. massive crop failures could occur too easily now and that would be devastating for humanity

[Warpy]

6. I think we're just as likely to experience it as a farming collapse

as climate becomes increasingly unreliable, flood versus drought, no way to predict any of it, unseasonable cold snaps driven by Arctic air, rivers and reservoirs drying out, only to be overwhelmed by flood water months later. This is if the pollinator population doesn't crash.

It's going to be bad.

[moniss]

8. Right you are

and I've posted previously about the problem of lag time in making policy changes. Things we should have done 50 years ago are still being debated and held up.

[2naSalit]

9. And it won't take long at all.

A couple bad growing seasons.

[dalton99a]

13. +1

[scipan]

16. And all the monoculture.

[Upthevibe]

14. Kick. N/T

[republianmushroom]

15. Yep

Very quickly.

[Marthe48]

17. I was recently visiting with people in my age group

(70s+) I think 2 or 3 groups of people over the last month. Conversation often turns to death, with several people hating the idea of their mortality and what if the point of living, when in the end we all die. I usually say something like we are the only species that know we have an expiration date, and so we can pack as many experiences, relationships, anything really that makes our existence meaningful.

I think it is a damn shame that even if we are the only species that is aware of death, when it comes to the environment, we are no better than any other species on the planet, and since we know we are causing harm, causing disaster, we do nothing to change course. The entire planet's future in in our hands, and we are doing the least possible to head off the calamity that is just down the road. There are many caring individuals laying awake at night wondering what else they can do to save the planet. There are just as many individials that don't give a damn, and do nothing to reduce the throttle. And even if companies and countries say they will do things, they don't. They just keep saying they'll do things, like words will be actions.

I flew to Maine last week, invited to join my family on their vacation. When I see mile after mile of forests, and rivers flowing, and all of the other positive signs of life and living, it is easy to think that the planet will survive the horrific abuse we keep piling on. The Earth might survive, but how about the passengers? There have been regional disasters in the past. Campi Flegei probably wiped out the last of the Neanderthals. Thera destroyed the Aegean culture. Droughts in South America destroyed the Mayan civilization. There was a mini ice age that brought famine and plague to Europe. Humans have been here before and we handled it as humans do: with opportunistic survival of the fittest. And even with proof from our own history, mindlessly we go on, and damn the torpedoes. I didn't think I'd live to see the crash of the environment, but when I read articles like this, I dread what is ahead, for all of us.

[Jack-o-Lantern]

18. +1...and then some.