'Point of no return': A research firm says the oil market is headed for a dire turning point

[Dulcinea]

(Business Insider) Market watchers have puzzled over the reasons for oil's resilience in recent weeks, but things could be about to change for the worse, one research firm is warning.

HFI Research, an investment research firm with a focus on energy markets, said it sees the oil market hitting a major turning point in the first week of June. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through that time, oil markets will likely descend into "real panic," it said, suggesting that nations around the world could start panic-buying and hoarding oil as oil inventories hit rock bottom.

The scenario — which HFI said wasn't its base-case — is contrary to where most forecasters think the crude market is headed. The firm pointed to more optimistic oil forecasts about how the market would soon normalize, but those predictions are likely fueled by "psychological biases" in the oil market, it said.

"It seems clear to me that if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed by the first week of June, we will see real panic," the firm wrote in a Substack post on Monday of the coming turning point in markets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/point-no-return-research-firm-123639885.html

[Irish_Dem]

1. Trump will love it and make money.

And feel proud of himself for how much power he has.
To destroy things.

[gab13by13]

2. As long as his fossil fuel pals

Keep the price of gasoline reasonable.

Pretty sure if Hormuz is closed at the 4th of July crude will skyrocket and $8 - $9/gal gasoline is likely. If he can spin that to unwashed Magats then he truly is an evil genius.

Today it is costing Magats over $100 to fill up their pickup trucks, add another $50 it will take all he has to blame someone else.

I understand, he personally doesn’t care, but he doesn’t take criticism well.

[Irish_Dem]

8. It's not just the price at the gas-pumps.

Everything is going to cost more, because transportation is going to cost more.

Trump just gets angry at criticism and doubles down.
So he will just punish Americans more.

MAGAs will put up with ANYTHING the evil one does.

[Ray Bruns]

3. This is what has me worried. I also believe the oil market is betting on Trump pulling something out of his ass and

solving the issue. I have no faith that he will.
I am also getting the same feeling that I got before both Gulf wars that something bad is coming down the pipeline.
I am not afraid high gas prices. What I am afraid of is no gas. I remember gas lines of the 70’s.

[gab13by13]

4. I'm not afraid of no gas,

This may be a stepping stone to restore our democracy.

[Ray Bruns]

6. You should be. You want to see what people do when they're desperate, see what happens when they can't fill up there gas

[modrepub]

5. Agree

But the “forecasters” have always assumed Trump couldn’t possibly be dumb enough to take actions that were so obviously bad for the common folk.

I mean really, we’re in a situation where the people who decide what’s good for the rest of us are so rich or insulated from the consequences of their actions that aren’t even remotely affected by them. No skin in the game.

[Old Crank]

7. Paul Krugman thinks the markets aren't reacting

As they should to the closure.
There was a fairly good cushion in supplies but that period is close to over. Country's reserve stocks have been tapped. Plus much longer and it will be hard to get the flow up to the previous levels. The refineries and wells can't be restarted like your car.

[BillJoeBobBeauregard]

9. Lwts let the American people find out what RepubliKKKlans Party plan is for them.

Americas need to find out for once, and for all that the Republican party is nothing but a nazi piece of sheiß with horrible, horrible people in charge. I say, bring it on. I'm tired of the 48% of voters p***y footing around, with dictatorships.
Yes,, we will all suffer. However, that's what happens when you put an insurrectionist in power. I know i'm wrong to say this, and it's mostly out of anger and frustration.

[SWBTATTReg]

10. Will go to show that tRUMP and repugs have actually no effect on oil supplies, oil demand, etc. Maybe the US

does deserve a oil shock as it would shock suppliers and oil lovers such as tRUMP, who have been against all alternative sources of non-fossil created energy, such as wind, solar, etc.

Perhaps the fossil fuels market resilience is due to speculators betting on a shortage/excess gap in oil futures, being prepared by tRUMP in advance, to enrich his buddies. These cycles have seemingly popped up quickly and ran their course in a matter of weeks and then were gone, when all of the profits that could be made were made (including tRUMP and his stooges).

[ToxMarz]

11. If someone were to know for a fact the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed well into June

they might be making stock trades and market bets that would make them very wealthy given the markets unexplained dismissal of that possibility being likely.

Of course no one could know that for sure to make such a risky move, so nothing to see here.