Ukraine crisis: Is Russia ready to move into eastern Ukraine?

[bemildred]

With Nato assessments that there are some 40,000 Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border ready to move at a few hours' notice, the heightening war of words between Moscow and Kiev raises a genuine prospect of conflict.

If Russia requires a pretext to move into eastern Ukraine, then many of the elements of that narrative are already in place.

But what of the Russian military's capabilities? What can be deduced from what we have seen so far of Russian operations in Crimea?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26940375

[Jefferson23]

1. More war is always a terrifying thought..but I find it hard to believe Putin wants in on that and

all that inevitably goes with it.

[bemildred]

2. Well, I don't think he does either, but that doesn't mean he won't.

I think he took the low-hanging fruit, so to speak, when it fell in his lap, in Crimea. A big win for him. But elsewhere will be much more problematical.

I was interested in the 4-way talks story because it indicates Russia has agreed to talk (in some form) to the "interim government".

If the OSCE observers get into position there, I think that may help settle things down.

[Jefferson23]

4. What lays ahead is speculative, I understand that and I don't mean to dismiss the serious nature

of it..I am hoping Putin is satisfied enough to avoid what I believe he knows would have huge
consequences.

[bemildred]

5. Yeah, hard to say, and people will yell at you whatever you say about it.

I don't think empire building is his agenda at the moment, that would be overreaching. His history is to take little bits when provoked and the cards are in his favor. Recklessness is not his style. And I conjecture his agenda is more about rebuilding Russia, as he sees it, rather than rebuilding the Soviet Union. I believe he is enough of a realist to see that is not going to happen any time soon. And I think he is enjoying parroting all our talking points back at us in the West.

[Jefferson23]

6. I think so, and I sure as hell hope so too. Putin does have a vision for Russia and Russians like

how decisive he is..his strength and nationalism and all that...but there are limitations.

[CFLDem]

3. That's the very reason NATO will stand idly by

while Putin reassembles the Soviet Union.

He's done his homework on us and found us wanting.

[dipsydoodle]

7. Russia's interest looks to be economic.

I don't see they're seeking to increase land mass per se.

The significance of Crimea was largely the naval base - not just its existence but its cost too. The annual lease cost was
$1 billion. There WAS also the $100 / 1000 cu. meters gas price reduction by way of a duty adjustment with Gazprom for gas used by Ukraine which may or may not have been part of the billion dollars - bit of mystery that.

Other parts of east Ukraine are the main industrial centres for the manufacture of Russian arms and consumer goods too. There are no alternatives markets in the EU for either for a variety of reasons. Russia, the world's second largest arms exporter, close behind the USA , is looking at losing a significant part of its manufacturing base. No alternative markets and jobs at stake may the background to support from within Ukraine - that was at least part of the background to the outcome of the Crimea referendum.

[go west young man]

8. The guy quoted in the BBC article seems unaware of Russia's new equipment upgrades.

Janes Defence Weekly would be a much better and more realistic source.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101481451

Excerpt:

"It's really no contest. The sheer size of the Russian forces is just too big, and the Ukrainians must know that," said Peter Felstead, editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, a publication focusing on global military matters, equipment and strategy.

http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/russian-military-spending-soars/

[bemildred]

9. Nobody I'm aware of disputes that Russia could take the whole thing in short order.

All our Western politicians are either salivating at the prospect or wetting their pants at the prospect. In both cases, making wild threats.

That being so, how cool Russia's current weapons are is interesting but not material. Being American, I am used to government dick-waving over weapons systems, but having worked in defense I don't pay much attention to it. There is more to life than blowing things up.

The real, important issue is what is Ukraine going to look like in the aftermath of this? Everybody needs Ukraine to be a stable, functional state with good relations to neighbors on all sides, and preferably controlled only by the People of Ukraine.

It would be much inferior were it to fragment further. It would be much inferior to force it into a hostile relation to Russia, or with the West, or to have it become a political football between the war hawks on both sides, or the site of a civil war, popular resistance, or civil disorders caused by further misgovernment and continued shit-stirring by anybody.