Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science
Series 5, Volume 41, April 1896, pages 237-276.
This photocopy was prepared by Robert A. Rohde for Global Warming
Art (
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/) from original printed material
that is now in the public domain.
Arrheniuss paper is the first to quantify the contribution of carbon
dioxide to the greenhouse effect (Sections I-IV) and to speculate about
whether variations in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide
have contributed to long-term variations in climate (Section V).
Throughout this paper, Arrhenius refers to carbon dioxide as carbonic
acid in accordance with the convention at the time he was writing.
Contrary to some misunderstandings, Arrhenius does not explicitly
suggest in this paper that the burning of fossil fuels will cause global
warming, though it is clear that he is aware that fossil fuels are a
potentially significant source of carbon dioxide (page 270), and he does
explicitly suggest this outcome in later work.
We were warned.