Why Is it Not in Russia's Interest to Invade Ukraine? - VisualPolitik EN

[Quixote1818]

[marie999]

1. It's too costly. I doubt Russia will invade Ukraine unless it becomes clear Ukraine will join NATO.

I doubt Ukraine will get every NATO nation to agree to have them join.

[Quixote1818]

3. At the end of the video they still seem to suggest they think something will happen

to save face, but it may be something very limited in support of some of the Pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.

[Uncle Joe]

5. I imagine

there is a strong probability that there tactics will be similar as in Georgia, same MO and probably hoping for a similar outcome.

[PortTack]

2. Thx for posting! It really sums up all of what reliable EU news sources have been saying

Just like Afghanistan, they can invade, but won’t be able to hold it

[thucythucy]

4. This assumes that the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO

is the true reason behind Putin's actions.

That may be part of it, but the idea of a thriving, democratic, western-leaning nation along this length of border, one without the massive corruption inherent in Putin's kleptocracy, is anathema to Putin, in that it might give his own people dangerous ideas. Think of the role West Germany played in the collapse of the DDR, which Putin no doubt vividly remembers. And even if he doesn't invade, his destabilizing Ukraine serves the purpose of keeping that nation "in its place."

None of this serves the interests of Russia as a nation or Russians as a people. To alienate everyone on his western border, including the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden (maritime border) and Poland (Belarus for now is essentially a Russian satellite) is hardly a winning move. And Putin's cozying up to China, which has claims on major parts of Siberia, may end up biting Russia in the ass.

This is foreign policy in the service of one man and his cronies' interests and has nothing to do with the well-being or security of the Russian people. Not all that unusual, but we should recognize it for what it is.