Russian commentator on why Putin's mobilisation cannot work in russian society.

[DetlefK]

The russian people and the russian government have a deal: The government does not come for their possessions or threaten their livelihood, and in return the government can do whatever they want.

For about 2 decades now, russian propaganda has filled the airwaves with all possible contradictory opinions, taking every possible point of view, including controlled opposition against Putin, to the point where political discourse about russian politics has become futile and meaningless.

It is estimated that about 50%-65% of Russians are apolitical and do not care about what's going on politically at all. For these 50-65% of the russian population, a point has been reached where they are BORED by the constant war-propaganda and constant media-coverage of the "special military operation".



Putin's problem:
He needs a russian population that is politically disinterested and passive enough to let him do anything he wants, but he needs those very same people at the very same time to be politically outraged enough to join the russian army and fight his war.



Before Putin can mobilize the russian people militarily, he has to mobilize them politically: make them outraged, angry, active... after spending 2 decades worth of propaganda and manipulation turning them into passive, disinterested bystanders.

[GenXer47]

1. very insightful!

[TheRealNorth]

2. Fake a terrorist attack

Some think he has already done that at least once in 1999.

[Ponietz]

7. Beslan, 2004, child sacrifice

Indiscriminate force on day 3 of a hostage crises, killing almost 200 school children. The school was bombed before it was retaken. Putin used it as a Reichstag fire type incident to seize more power.

This should be a caution to anyone dealing with him

[Pluvious]

3. Very well explained nt.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. Thank your for the summary! Reading it now. . . . .nt

[Warpy]

5. Great video. Cracks are definitely appearing

and vloggers are describing Putin in his latest appearances as being smaller, bent, far less than he once was.

I have to admit that when I saw the video that had a dissenter on one of their gasbag shows, all I could think of was our own Sunday morning shows from the late 70s to very recently that featured one tepid liberal getting verbally beaten up by 3 rabid, Gish galloping wingnuts. Or the old Hannity & Colmes, in which Colmes's job was to concede all points to the superior wisdom of Hannity.

(I really don't need the sarcasm thingie for that one, do I?)

Russian vloggers have pointed out the gradual disappearance of even slacktivist support, the "Z" and "V" signs on cars, buildings, billboards, and apparel vanishing over the last couple of months. This has happened in Moscow as much as the far east. What has appeared in its place is anti war graffiti. People can't speak openly, so they use paint on the walls. Some of it is in bad English, as though they want us to know they're out there and also hate the war.

When totalitarian dictatorships collapse, they generally do so at dizzying speed and with few outward warning signs. Subtle signs are there, though, but there is no way to predict how long it will take.

[al bupp]

6. Can't reccommend this enough

Vlad offers extremely intelligent political and social commentary about Russia.

[Warpy]

9. His whole series of videos is scarier than anything I've ever watched.

I have to hope he's wrong about a few things but I strongly suspect he is not.

[al bupp]

10. The one about public discourse and private sentiment may the one that really got me

He has many videos about topics other than Russia, including music and philosophy that I have yet to watch.

[Tadpole Raisin]

8. So Putin's doing a real good job in his country:

He is killing men by sending them to war w/ little help.
Wounds/PTSD for returning soldiers will devastate 4 years.

He will jail/punish men and families if they refuse.
Russian men will flee and families will lose that support.

Generations will be damaged or lost. Who will be left?