02 Feb: Clever. Ukrainian Commander Explains the Bakhmut Trap - Reporting from Ukraine

[TexasTowelie]

Day 344: February 02

Today there is a lot of good news from the east. Ukrainian Head of the Eastern Group of forces stated that the continuous effective destruction of main Russian ammunition depots created shortages of shells on the front, which do not allow the Russians to cut off Bakhmut from supplies. He also noted that they are not blind to the situation and that there is a good reason why they are still in Bakhmut, and today I will tell you exactly what this reason is.

The Head of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic recently made a claim that they completed the operational encirclement of Bakhmut. The Head of the Wagner Group, which is actually responsible for carrying out this operation, responded that this is not true. Other Russian military-affiliated people and officers in the reserve confirmed that the Ukrainians are still supplying Bakhmut with everything that is necessary. They also critiqued the Russian Ministry of Defense for not allocating endless supplies of mortars, artillery, and shells to be able to fire at these roads non-stop. One of the reasons that the Russians are not able to do it lies in constant HIMARS strikes that target Russian ammunition depots. Luhansk People’s Militia reported that the Ukrainians recently struck their bases in Alchevsk and Kadiivka. Geolocated footage confirmed that the strikes were successful. Even though Russian reserves of shells are endless, such strikes disrupt their logistics and create short-term deficits on the front.

The Head of the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces confirmed that Ukrainian forces are still able to supply units in Bakhmut effectively and noted that the Ukrainian military command is ready for the deterioration of the situation and has already worked out all possible contingency plans. He stated that the main reason why the Ukrainians continue to stay in Bakhmut is that the Russians are overcommitting their forces in this region in an attempt to seize the town by the anniversary of this war. This allows the Ukrainians to leverage this extremely well-fortified town and inflict disproportionately high losses on the attackers. He stated that they did the same thing in Lysychansk, and this decision allowed them to exhaust Russian forces to the point where they even took an operational pause.

Nonetheless, there are still plenty of indicators that the Ukrainians have finally started to withdraw to the western side of Bakhmut. The Ukrainians reportedly moved three streets back in the northern part of Bakhmut, they finally gave the Champagne factory to the Russians in the eastern part of Bakhmut, and the war footage also frequently features fights taking place deeper in the residential area. At this time, the Ukrainians are relying on the meat processing plant, high-rise buildings, and the local river as the main defensive positions. It looks like they are now ready to withdraw, and the northern and eastern groups with likely cross the river near the first bridge, and the southern group will cross it near the dam. After the Ukrainians move to the western side, escaping encirclement and leaving Bakhmut altogether will be much easier.

Overall, the Russians are committing significant amounts of resources, including elite special operators, to take Bakhmut at all costs in the next three weeks. The Ukrainians are using Bakhmut as a trap or a bait in order to exhaust Russian forces so that after taking the town, the Russians will be unable to immediately start storming the next line of defense, similar to what we saw in Lysychansk. An operational pause or even just a necessary decrease in the intensity of Russian attacks will give the Ukrainians the valuable time that they need to receive Western weapons.