03 Feb: New Tactic. Ukrainians Use HIMARS to Breach Russian Defense - Reporting from Ukraine

[TexasTowelie]

Day 345: February 03

A lot of new developments happened in the Luhansk region. Here the situation here is very complicated – both parties are conducting offensive actions because both are trying to impose their own rules of the game.

The main vector of Ukrainian advance is from the forest toward Kreminna. Russian Secretary of the General Council claimed that for them, Kreminna is the most challenging segment of the frontline because here, the Ukrainians continuously attempt to break through Russian defensive lines. For these reasons, the Russians deployed a lot of their elite airborne units to this region, and over the last two weeks, a lot of geolocated combat videos emerged showing Ukrainian forces engaging Russian Airborne Forces east of Dibrova. Other footage showed BARS personnel performing a combat mission in the Kreminna area, where they said that they could not advance because of constant Ukrainian sniper fire. Nonetheless, despite the high intensity of attacks, the Ukrainians still have not reached Kreminna, and when the Ukrainian Spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces was put to question, he admitted that the Ukrainian pace of advancement has slowed down below their expectations.

In order to make sure that they reach Kreminna, the Ukrainians also have a second attack vector from Nevske to Chervonopopivka. When the fights finally reached the main Russian defense line, the situation became critical, and the Russians doubled down on their attacks.

The main Russian vector of advance is from Ploschanka to Makiivka. Makiivka is extremely important because it allows the Ukrainians to control this segment of the river, where the Ukrainians can cross it very easily. The river here is extremely narrow and shallow; in many places, it is less than 10 meters wide. And because there are so many places where they can cross it, keeping it under fire control is impossible, and the Ukrainians can immediately attack Russian positions in the vicinity of Chervonopopivka. But if the Russians take Makiivka, this segment will shrink tremendously and significantly undermine the Ukrainian offensive operation. However, so far, the Russians have failed to achieve any progress here.

This forced the Russians to double down on their second vector of attack, which is from Kreminna towards Yampolivka and Terny. The goal here is basically the same because by establishing control over these two villages, the Russians will close the hole from the south. However, this is exactly what the Russians have done three or four times in autumn and completely failed. Even when the Russians successfully captured these villages, they failed to hold them and expand control because they put themselves in a very vulnerable position, as they were exposed from two sides. The Ukrainians leveraged it, opened fire from another bank of the river to fix Russian troops, and then crushed them from the flanks.

Some Russian analysts claim that this time the outcome should be different because after Soledar fell, the Russians are now applying a lot of pressure to the Siversk defense line. And this can indeed play a role because Siversk is the main logistics hub that supplies the Kreminna offensive operation. So, if the Russians collapse the front line around Siversk, the Ukrainians will not be able to maintain the intensity of their attacks as described earlier, where the Russians cannot even move in the forest.

But, so far, Siversk holds. Russian sources recently claimed that they breached the Ukrainian defense line here by establishing control over the village of Sakko and Vantsetti, but this is just the area with 5 houses and bushes in the lowlands, while the Ukrainians are still controlling all the hills. If the Russians continue overestimating their advance and miss the timing, their assault units may be destroyed before they advance from the south.

But the Ukrainians are not passively waiting. They have reportedly doubled down on their attacks in the forest and developed a new tactic using HIMARS. The most difficult job is establishing control over entrenched positions and fortification. Regular artillery is not precise, and there is not enough of it to compensate for the inaccuracy. That is why the Ukrainians started striking these fortifications with HIMARS rockets. Their precision allows the Ukrainians to destroy the main fortification with one shot and then assault and take control of the position. If this tactic reinvigorates Ukrainian advances, then the Russian assault units will likely be withdrawn to help defend Kreminna instead of assaulting Yampolivka.