The Fatal Flaw that Doomed the Wagner Group - William Spaniel

[TexasTowelie]

The Wagner Group's mutiny in June 2023 marked the beginning of the end of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Although officially pardoned for his actions, someone within Russia was actually just waiting for the right time to take him out. However, it was a decision Wagner made many years beforehand that would eventually seal their fate. This is the story of how not to structure a military organization (unless you want to make millions at the cost of your own life).

0:00 The End of Wagner
0:47 Why We Will Never Know Exactly What Happened
2:13 Why the Kremlin Kept Wagner Around
4:56 How Wagner's Plausible Deniability Ended
5:46 Wagner's Waning Military Capacity
7:57 Wagner's Weak Link
9:43 Wagner's Corporate Structure
11:28 Why Succession Plans Are Critical
13:03 How Better-Managed Organizations Deter Decapitation Strikes
14:20 Why a Simultaneous Attack Doomed Wagner
15:48 Why Wagner Put its Leadership on the Same Plane

[Warpy]

1. He missed the obvious point about why they were all on one plane

The second plane was stuck circling Moscow, denied permission to land until the jet carrying all of them had taken off.

Likely some time constraint around the St. Petersburg trip been imposed and they knew they were in danger on the ground in Moscow and wanted to leave ASAP. What we don't know is how long they waited for that second plane, one that would never have been permitted to land and pick up one or the other of the top two execs.

They obviously had no idea Putin would shoot their plane down. However, Putin is a superstitious bastard as well as a symbolic thinker. He's always been obsessed with the number 2 and it was two months to the day since the near coup. During that attempt, 3 helicopters and one aircraft were shot down by Wagner, so of course shooting them down was perfect revenge.

[Martin68]

2. No one in Russia would have had the temerity to kill Prigozhin without an authorization from Putin.