Horse players unite! Let's talk Derby.

[ChubbyStar]

2018 Derby is just around the corner, if you are in the game please share your thoughts.

[Heartstrings]

1. I usually, like always, take the winner of the AR Derby.

However, I'm breaking with tradition and going with Justify, winner of the Santa Anita Derby.

[ChubbyStar]

2. Justify is fabulous but....

I worry about him competing in a large field. That said, I will consider him underneath in exotics. My money is on Mendelssohn.

[Heartstrings]

3. And post positions are always key...

especially for a horse not experienced in a larger field. Justify had a momentary lapse in judgement during the Santa Anita, caught by Smith, but nevertheless could have been a disaster. I will need to check your pick, Mendelssohn out! I was not impressed with Magnum Moon at all.

[ChubbyStar]

6. Justify drifting is a concern

But he is a lightly raced colt and will learn. I don't like Magnum Moon at all, slow Beyers and very goofy. Indeed the post position is critical, but not a death sentence, I won the Derby in 1995 with Thunder Gulch breaking from the 16 hole at 24/1. Mendelssohn has the same owner as Gulch and this guy Michael Tabor is a motherfucker when it comes to owning winners.

I love Scat Daddy/Johannesburg horses, they are fast, tactical, and have a shit ton of heart.

[Heartstrings]

17. You're a "pilot"?

I remember the name Thunder Gulch!!!

How cool is this thread going to get the closer we get to Derby day?! I can learn a lot from you!

[ChubbyStar]

18. No silly, I meant I wagered and won..Gary Stevens rode TC that day

[Heartstrings]

20. Darn!

Would have been cool to chat with a pilot! I never bet actual money...well, maybe a couple bucks at Oaklawn but it always seemed like the kiss of death for the horse when I did.....🏇
And who knows...ChubbyStar could be Gary Stevens incognito....

[ChubbyStar]

42. Post positions and early odds as of May 1 2018

Kentucky Derby field, with riders and morning line odds:

1. Firenze Fire (Paco Lopez), 50-1
2. Free Drop Billy (Robby Albarado), 30-1
3. Promises Fulfilled (Corey Lanerie), 30-1
4. Flameaway (Jose Lezcano), 30-1
5. Audible (Javier Castellano), 8-1
6. Good Magic (Jose Ortiz, Jr.), 12-1
7. Justify (Mike Smith), 3-1
8. Lone Sailor (James Graham), 50-1
9. Hofburg (Irad Ortiz, Jr.), 20-1
10. My Boy Jack (Kent Desormeaux), 30-1
11. Bolt d'Oro (Victor Espinoza), 8-1
12. Enticed (Junior Alvarado), 30-1
13. Bravazo (Luis Contreras), 50-1
14. Mendelssohn (Ryan Moore), 5-1
15. Instilled Regard (Drayden Van Dyke), 50-1
16. Magnum Moon (Luis Saez), 6-1
17. Solomini (Flavien Prat), 30-1
18. Vino Rosso (John Velazquez), 12-1
19. Noble Indy (Florent Geroux), 30-1
20. Combatant (Ricardo Santana, Jr.), 50-1
AE. Blended Citizen (Kyle Frey), 50-1

[Heartstrings]

43. Hmmmm......

Could be worse.....thoughts?

[ChubbyStar]

44. The speedster Promises Fulfilled drew #3 that could cause a hot pace

If he breaks cleanly. Audible got the #5 hole but he is a notoriously bad gate horse, Good Magic and Justify drew well, but there are some mad crazy closers in the #9 and #10 spots. I like where Bolt d'Oro drew at #11, Mendelssohn's post doesn't thrill me. I will be analyzing my past performance spread sheets closely. Todd Pletcher has 3 horse on the outside #16, #18, and #19, I think this will affect Magnum Moon more than Vino Rosso and Noble Indy.

[Heartstrings]

45. You're knowledge overwhelms mine!

Keep me informed as you analyze....I was just glad Justify didn't get too far in or out. I'm pretty naive to the logistics, so will learn from you!

[Heartstrings]

4. In researching "our" two horses have much the same pedigree.....

[ChubbyStar]

8. They are also ridden by two of the best jockeys in the world

The pilot is a big deal for me.

[Heartstrings]

16. Absolutely!

[ChubbyStar]

38. Updated odds as of 4/28 Post draw on Wednesday

Justify (2-1)
Magnum Moon (4-1)
Mendelssohn (9-2)
Bolt d'Oro (5-1)
Good Magic (7-1)
Audible (10-1)
Vino Rosso (12-1)
Enticed (18-1)
My Boy Jack (20-1)
Solomini (20-1)
Instilled Regard (20-1)
Noble Indy (24-1)
Lone Sailor (40-1)
Flameaway (40-1)
Hofburg (30-1)
Combatant (40-1)
Promises Fulfilled (50-1)
Bravazo (50-1)
Free Drop Billy (50-1)
Strike Power (50-1)
Restoring Hope (50-1)
Firenze Fire (60-1)
Snapper Sinclair (75-1)
Dream Baby Dream (100-1)

[Heartstrings]

39. 22 in the field?

That's waaaay too many!

Did you bet any actual money yet?

[ChubbyStar]

40. The list includes

Also eligibles. The field could have drop outs, injuries, so the odds makers include all possible entries. The field will be 20 max. I made two future win bets back in February, the odds were very generous then. One I am VERY happy with, the other I wish I had bet to place and not to win but we shall see.

[Heartstrings]

41. Forecast is for rain on Friday, 60%

Could be a mudder....
How does Mendelssohn handle a muddy track? I have no idea with Justify....

[oasis]

5. Hopefully the weather is near perfect. I hate sloppy tracks.

[pangaia]

7. This is an interesting thread for a guy like me who knows nothing about the horses.

My last bet on the Derby was on Iron Liege. We all know how nicely that turned out.

[ChubbyStar]

9. What? That horse won the Derby in 1957

You were gambling in the crib?

[pangaia]

10. I was 14. Betting against my grandfather. $10. I still remember.

[ChubbyStar]

11. What a cool memory

This is the most difficult Derby field to handicap for me in 30 years, I'm going with Mendelssohn....at least for now. Injuries, work outs, and post position draw are all still pending. Nice to see you again, I still love our music posts!

[pangaia]

14. I don't know enough. Usualky i choose tge horse that looks tge coolest to me. Dumb eh.

But, i think on your suggestion, ill go with Mendelssohn. I've already played 2 of his Symphonies and the Midsummer Night's Dream incidental music this season.

[ChubbyStar]

19. I will keep you updated as we get closer

I won't be happy if he draws inside, but that is to be determined on Wednesday May 4th when post positions are drawn. I would love for him to draw the 5-10 post.

[pangaia]

25. Thanks and do update me if it is not an inconvenience.

I put it on my smart phone calendar. It's the only race I watch all year... also a great reason to make a mint julep..

I got into short track speed skating during the olympics this year as a good friend of mine in Seoul kind of knows two of the world champion women skaters - Choi MinJeong and Shim SukHee.

Then there were the "Garlic Girls" curling team.

So this could be a chance to learn a little about horse racing, other than whichever horse comes in first wins. DUH !

[jaysunb]

12. I was also 14 in 1957 and had "hot walked " my first horse at Thistledown/Randall Park in

Cleveland, Ohio. Lost my entire weeks pay ( $36.00 ) on the first bet I made on a mare that still hasn't broke her maiden.

[pangaia]

13. Great story. What is hotwalk? Walking a horse after a race?

[jaysunb]

15. After morning exercise/workout. Nt

[A HERETIC I AM]

21. Modern hot walker unit;

Modern, but they have been in use for decades

[pangaia]

24. Quite a contraption. :))

Beautiful horse. Where I live there are many Mennonites who use a horse and buggy.. some really good looking horses, at least to my eye...

[ChubbyStar]

22. HAHAHA your maiden joke is hilarious

[ChubbyStar]

23. Odds from Vegas 4/17/2018

All odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook and current as of April 17.

2018 Kentucky Derby Odds
HORSE ODDS
Justify 5/2
Magnum Moon 6/1
Audible 7/1
Good Magic 8/1
Bolt d'Oro 10/1
Mendelssohn 12/1
Enticed 15/1
My Boy Jack 20/1
Vino Rosso 20/1
Noble Indy 25/1
Solomini 25/1
Hofburg 30/1
Quip 40/1
Combatant 50/1
Free Drop Billy 50/1
Bravazo 60/1
Flameaway 60/1
Strike Power 60/1
Gronkowski 80/1
Lone Sailor 80/1
Promises Fulfilled 80/1
Firenze Fire 100/1
Dream Baby Dream 300/1
Reride 300/1
Restoring Hope 300/1
Snapper Sinclair 300/1
Sporting Chance 300/1

[Heartstrings]

26. Just noticed....

Gronkowski? Guess I'll need to google to find out if Gronk is into the ponies!

[Heartstrings]

27. Rob Gronkowski does indeed have a stake in his namesake horse.

However Gronk, the horse, developed a fever and has been pulled from the Derby. Looking at a Belmont run....

[Tikki]

28. I am so tired of hearing about how Mendelssohn is going to....

come from behind or something.

Any of the first 3 horses on the leaderboard could win and I, also, like Enticed and My Boy Jack.

Tikki

[ChubbyStar]

29. Enticed and Jack are peaking at the perfect time

I like them underneath for now but will wait for the post draw. Mendelssohn is a very versatile horse and has proven he can easily take the lead. It is a deep field, I know for a fact I do not like Magnum Moon, Instilled Regard, Solomini, and Good Magic.

[Tikki]

30. I feel like everybody in the horse racing media owns a share in Mendelssohn..

pretty much all you hear...

Come back here and chide me (or not) if I am wrong but
the hype around that horse out-plays what I have seen.

Tikki

[ChubbyStar]

31. Oh never never chide, I love people who follow horses

Best brothers and sisters EVER. I have been very fortunate to have made a great deal of money off Michael Tabor owned horses, and I dig the guy, and Mendelssohn is a kick ass horse. Fuck the UAE, personally I really did not give a shit how he ran that day, race was a nothing to me. The fact that he killed that field made me chuckle. He is an amazing horse. Tabor knows a quality horse, trains them properly, and treats them like kings. The little bookie Tabor off the street is ultra sharp.

[DFW]

32. Word of advice--do NOT read past this OP title quickly

First thing I thought was "why would a horse player want to talk dirty?"

[ChubbyStar]

33. Well DFW I am known as the kinky handicapper

[DFW]

34. Ah, I should have known! n/t

[ChubbyStar]

35. Silly! I bet longshots

Nothing dirty about that...oh wait.....

[DFW]

36. I didn't hear that n/t

[ChubbyStar]

37. Ear muffs

Ah shit I did it again....

[kentuck]

46. Audible, Bolt D' Oro, and Justify

No special reason.