Analyze Me. Risk/Reward. Why can't I get 'unstuck' and do what I know would be beneficial for me?

[masmdu]

One of the things I have appreciated about DU over the years is how generous others here are with their thoughts, expertise, and views concerning things other than politics.

I wonder if I can call upon you now to help with a strange problem that has presented itself in my life.

I don't want to give many details but I don't think they are necessary anyway.

Here goes, everyday I have an opportunity to take advantage of a situation that 9 in 10 times generates a large profit. The 1 in 10 time that it doesn't isn't really a dangerous loss situation as I know upfront the total amount of such a loss and I am perfectly willing to accept such risk.

My problem comes in taking the other 9 opportunities. These are time sensitive opportunities and I know that if I move at the right time each opportunity offers a reward at least twice (and as much as 10x) that of the 1 in 10 loss risk.

I find myself repeating the following pattern and can't seem to break it.
When on opportunity presents itself I will take it but quickly take a small profit equal to about 1/10 of the loss I incur 1 in 10 times. I monitor the situation after I have taken my profit and frustratingly watch as time and again I see that had I stayed with the opportunity I would have had a large profit. Once, I have exited the opportunity there is rarely a second chance with that same opportunity so I cannot take advantage of the same opportunity more than once.

Sorry to be so cryptic. Anyway, any advice on how I can make myself do the thing I KNOW 9 times out of 10 will be financially beneficial but that I can't seem to take advantage of in the manner which I want to?

I've never had such a problem before in any part of my life and I used to not have it in this part. Nothing has changed that may explain this new pattern of behavior I simply find myself stuck and unable to do what I cleary can and should.

Any and all advice would be really appreciated.

[ret5hd]

1. smuggling is bad.

[Major Nikon]

13. Only if you're the 1 in 10

[masmdu]

2. (chirp...chirp) Anybody? (chirp...chirp)

[masmdu]

3. self serving kick

[riderinthestorm]

4. I'll take a stab and say that I don't have enough info to help

Do you back out because you are afraid? Do you back out because the risk is REAL and you don't want to be the sucker who loses out on that 10th time? I know you said you are prepared to accept the financial risk but maybe the emotional/mental possibility of losing means you don't want to start it at all?

Are you afraid of big changes in your life? I know if I could make some serious money quickly and easily with a sure fire investment I'd be on it like white-on-rice but with that would come some lifestyle changes for sure....

[masmdu]

6. Thanks for taking the time...

I'm not afraid. The risk is real and completely defined and I am perfectly fine with it. I don't mind the 1 in 10 loss.

I'm not afraid of change in my life. I simply can't bring myself to do this in the manner which I know I should. Frustrating as hell!

[bluesbassman]

5. You state that "I am perfectly willing to accept such risk". Apparently you aren't.

You analyzed the performance patterns of these opportunities and know the track record. To continually move forward armed with that knowledge only to pull out once your initial investment is secure indicates that you are risk averse.

Maybe speculative investing is not your forte?

[masmdu]

7. Well here's the thing...When the 1 in 10 loss occurs I take it. Yet, when I take an opportunity

that indicates it will be one of the 9 of 10 that will lead to a profit I still get my profit but I seem unable/unwilling to stay with it to maximize the profit.

[bluesbassman]

8. Can you pull out prior to incurring a loss, or only after it starts being profitable?

Also, does the margin fluctuate? In otherwords can it go down, then back up then down again etc.?

[masmdu]

9. Yes, I can pull out prior to incurring a loss. It can fluctuate but usually does not...That is to

say that it is usually obvious rather quickly which opportunity will become a loss and which has the potential to be profitable (should I stay with it).

[bluesbassman]

10. Well, that's about as far as my psych skills go.

You have all the tools, but it appears something is inhibiting you from making large profits.

[masmdu]

12. Thanks...I appreciate the feedback...

[hunter]

11. Do something that makes you happy.

What's the point of this kind of "profit" if it's making you miserable?

Could it be that your "profit" would be at someone else's expense and that maybe your conscience is speaking? Honest business is win/win all around. Both sides walk away with what they wanted.

There's too much business that's not honest -- when someone wins, it's because someone else loses. These days the very wealthy are profiting at everyone else's expense.

Personally, I could never sell anyone crap. Since I think 95% of everything is crap my options as a salesperson are very limited.

If you don't like speculating, don't.

Patient: Doctor, it hurts when I do this!

Doctor: Well, don't do that...

[masmdu]

14. Making profit is not what's frustrating...It is my inablitiy to act.

It really isn't a question of being miserable. When I do this correctly it provides the means of doing quite a lot of what makes me happy.

While my profit does come at someone else's expense they are entering the situation completely aware that this is a potential outcome for any participant. There is no selling involved and no product involved.

[hunter]

16. Doesn't sound like a game I'd like to play.

Good luck.

[Ikonoklast]

15. Needs more information.

How large a potential gain, and how large a loss?

If the ratio is 9 to 1 in your favor with gains always larger than any loss, I would ride each gain out to the end, and take the losses with glee.