Hi

[Rule of Claw]

I am Rule of Claw. I post on Kos but joined up here to discuss polling mainly.

Polling needs a major overhaul.

[Nictuku]

1. Welcome to DU

What are your thoughts on overhauling polling?

I like the way this site does their projections, basing it on individual state polls (not national polls)
https://www.electoral-vote.com/

Here they have a detailed explanation of their methodology:
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Info/polling-faq.html

[GemDigger]

2. Hi Rule of Claw

Welcome to DU and yes it does.

[Rule of Claw]

3. Briefly I think

every pollster needs a monthly baseline of demographic preferences of at least 400 voters.

I.E. 400 AAs. 400 Whites, 400 Hispanics and so on. THEN you take those apportionments and do a LV screen from a random sampling.

So you say-90 percent of whites are enthusiastic, 80 percent of black voters, and so on. BUT you plug in your solid data points previously collected.

NOT like what ABC did and polled 28 black voters in a state nearly 200k of them. Then plugged that in as a true representation of 4 percent of the electorate. That could swing a poll three points.