Question, how much longer do we REALLY have left? 5yrs? 10?

[FirstLight]

Climate change being the foremost danger to our lifestyles as we know them...but political polarity and the breakdown of laws etc are up there too in my head. Economy...pfft.

So really, how long do ya think we have till the wheels begin to come off and the beginning of the end is really upon us?

I had this talk with a friend (who also thinks Im kinda weird so there;s that)...
I was thinking out loud about doing some home improvements and the terms of the financing were 10 years. she said that's too short of time, to which I replied that I dont think things are going to even remotely look the same in five years, much less 10. Which is why is am considering selling sooner and just going on the road, thinking it would be easier than waiting for the shit to hit the fan from one place...

ok so it dioes sound a little crazy when I read it, but I'd still be curious to know how you all think we are turly headed. Cuz if the last 2-3 years are any indication, I think we're definitely headed towards a cliff....sooner or later?

[flying_wahini]

1. I think it will become a lot clearer but my gut says about 30 years.

More wildfires, more super storms, more earthquakes……

[FirstLight]

6. I think the environmental "models" are proving to be too conservative...

we've already got methane escaping and creating that feedback loop, they said that wouldnt happen till 2050 or so...

The wildfire thing and heat have been just crazy in the last 3-5 years...
Hurricaines and storms too.

It's gonna be a bumpy ride no matter what from here on out.

[Hoyt]

2. We've got lots of problems, but people have been predicting doom for

thousands of years. Can remind as a young kid expecting to die from a nuclear blast.

Definitely need to start dealing with some serious issues, though.

[FirstLight]

8. I know people have been predicting stuff for millenia, BUT we are definitely in a different scenario

I think it's really proving to be more critical now than ever.

[CanonRay]

3. I think the next 3 years are critical

If the proper steps are taken, including ending the filibuster to allow for voting rights legislation, merciless prosecution of sedition with full, open disclosure, tax reform to reduce income inequality, and meaningful and perhaps drastic climate rules, we will have a chance. Without these steps, I think by 2025 this country will cease to exist as we know it.

I'm not sure what it will look like exactly but it won't be pretty.

I'm not optimistic.

[FirstLight]

5. politically/economically I think we're in trouble for many reasons...

Govt cant fix the instability and polarity between people on the street.I agree shit's not gonna look the same in 5 years... drastically different

[walkingman]

12. I think it is about more than money - in the case of Manchin, I think he craves attention

and it just a corporate Democrat or in reality a Rethug in sheep's clothing.

In the case of Sinema she provides a glance into modern day Green or Libertarian ideology. Those Parties have lost all credibility for at least 20 years. On top of that I consider her just a flake.

How much longer do we have? At 71, I think I'll be very lucky to have 10 more. For the next generations I think the world will not resemble anything like we have now. The Religious nuts will provide cover for those that talk a lot about "Making things better" and the greedy bastards will just continue their selfish ways.

I hate to be so cynical but I see no way that our present day societies have the willpower or willingness to make the sacrifices and necessary changes to deal with Climate or even geopolitical challenges.

Technology might be our only hope and many people will refuse to accept any possible solutions.

[CanonRay]

16. Certainly ego is a factor with some of them

[Grasswire2]

23. excellent post, Chin

We could make T the (fake) emperor (in name only, no power) and let him think he's important.

And then fix everything.

[NotANeocon]

22. Walkingman- At your age -

If you are not overwhelmed by cynicism then you've probably totally lost the plot.

We've seen world wars, nuclear disasters and threats, pandemics, genocides, and democracy taken over by feudal economics. We can recognise the difference between local insanity and pandemic insanity and today we are witnessing post truth pandemic insanity.

We also know that "this too will pass" but there is every chance that it will take our species with it.

BUT - if I can get my hands on the money and my head on the stamps everything will be OK.

[MiHale]

4. Climate we have maybe 40- 50 yrs...

But I believe in that interim some of us will adapt and find a way to survive. Humans are a tough, adaptable species.

Then I think all or most governments will fail…the institution cannot adapt as quickly as people.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. I have no idea, but I live on Long Island where I see houses ready to...

fall off cliffs iinto the Sound. Doesn't stop them from paying millions to build or buy on the next cliff.

That's small stuff, though. We survived the dustbowl 30s, but no one knows how this western drought will end.

How long will the Ogallalla aquifer last? The Colorado River? When will Florida and Louisiana be underwater?

There's an attitude that we're only on the planet for a short time, so grab what we can. Future generations will make do.

[Grasswire2]

24. what part of Long Island has cliffs?

I'm interested in the topography, it being the home of my ancestors from the earliest days of European settlers. But I don't know a lot about the physical attributes.

[TreasonousBastard]

26. Some out around Montauk, but a lot on the North Shore. Not terribly high, maybe...

100-200 feet.

I don't have any pictures handily uploaded, but if you have the Windows 10 map, find Southold and the Hortons Point Lighthouse. Then find the satellite view and spin it around until you're looking south. Then use the tilt function and you can see the low cliffs there. Keep sliding the map around and you'll see areas with cliffs all along the north shore.

Look for the Montauk Lighthouse and find a few cliffs on the South shore. One of them has a scary-looking split close to the edge that you can't really see on the map, but is easy to see from the parking lot.

[Grasswire2]

27. interesting thanks nt

[CrispyQ]

10. Very few are prepared, either physically or mentally, for the changes that are coming.

Even as we see the evidence before our eyes, the denial is thick. We can't get people to don a face mask during a global pandemic, how are we going to get people to make the lifestyle changes needed to stop climate change. It's going to take a lot more than changing what type of light bulb you use & recycling your milk cartons. There is already so much heat baked into the system, who knows if humans will see 400ppm again.

Antarctica & the northern latitudes will be refuges for the rich. The rest of us are going to battle it out over resources while more & more regions of the planet become uninhabitable. I predict a migration of Americans from the draught plagued southwest to areas that have water in 10 years or less. Lakes Mead & Powell are at historically low levels. Some politician suggested a water pipeline from the Mississippi to Arizona, but I don't know if that was a joke or not. We're on an economic brink due to the policies of greedy, rich, (mostly) white men, & they still think they deserve to be in charge.

[FirstLight]

11. yup...

The drought & wildfires are just the tip of the iceberg (no pun intended)

So much is rapidly shifting and we are literally the frog calmly waiting to boil as the water gets hotter....

[RKP5637]

19. Well said, similar thoughts here! n/t

[JackSabbath]

13. Depends on how badly people freak out

The biggest danger is not the actual change in climate, which looks like it will peak in 50-80 years, it's how people and governments will react when the inevitability sinks in.

The big freak-out is coming much sooner. Markets will fail. Mass migrations will occur. Resource wars will begin. All of this will start long before the actual climate changing forces it to. Imagine a climate related issue that causes half a million deaths over the course of a weekend.

I'm guessing the first wave of true panic within ten years 😕

[bucolic_frolic]

14. Two scenarios collide

Civil strife is 2-3 years out. It's not elections, and it's not political. It's global trade. We rely on supplies from tens of thousands of miles away. People don't want to work, they work home gigs. I don't think that supply chain can be tweaked with those inputs.

Second is climate change. Exponential growth. The problem is accelerating. The next crunch is not 14 years out like it was in 2007, or 7 years out like in 2014. It's 3 years out. Unless consumption is abruptly curtailed for reasons of pandemic, population decline, people just tired of working harder and harder to pay for more and more and more stuff. There is only so much time in the day, and so much room in the closet.

[FirstLight]

15. You really nailed it...

The crunch time is definitely within a short window because things are just too overwhelmingly enmeshed.

The supply chain and fossil fuels are inextricably linked, and the climate issues coming from mass production/consumption/export-import is far to big to even begin to manage.

The shitshow will be global, messy, and dangerous on many levels, IMO - and waiting for the "next" generation to fix it is over.

[NullTuples]

18. The wheels have begun to come off and the beginning of the end is really upon us

Remember how last year with COVID cases everyone learned about "The Curve" which was a chart of exponential growth?

With climate change, we're already up on that really scary close-to-vertical part of the curve.

But we flattened the COVID curve.

We can do the same with the rise in average global temperature, too.

[RKP5637]

20. I really see where you're coming from. I'm a bit concerned about civil unrest. I moved to

a more secure location, not that I'm afraid, but cautious. I also moved inland from the water. I think we'll get a better idea on this over the next few years. Much of this takes political will. From what I see, we live in two countries, R and D. I've never seen the US so staunchly divided. The wealthy and corporations for the most part have latched onto the GOP and for the most only see $$$$$'s.

Then, there are the crazies that have also latched onto the GOP. Given how the senate is functioning there will be few really meaningful agreements. I think a lot of the future of this country will depend on the elections in 2022 and 2024. Imagine, just imagine, if Trump got back in 2024. ... and had a GOP house and senate. I think the wheels would fly off the US so fast they could not be seen.

I've always been pretty optimistic about things ... but anymore ... I really doubt if many in congress could even pass a citizenship test ... and I really do wonder about the general populace. I am hoping for the best, but I certainly do share your concerns.

[NotANeocon]

21. Just prognosticating from 50 years ago.

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