Statistics question: how best to phrase this?

[Orrex]

20 tickets were sold for a raffle, and each ticket has an equal chance of being drawn. Sally buys 8, Fred buys 8, and Terry buys 4.

Would it be correct to say "It's 4 times more likely that Sally or Fred will win than Terry" in that formulation? Granted, each of them is only 2x more likely (8 tickets vs 4), but is it incorrect to describe their combined likelihood (16 tickets vs 4)?

Or would it be better (i.e., less confusing) to say "Either Sally or Fred is twice as likely to win as Terry" instead?

Is either of these formulations objectively better, in terms of accuracy? Is either better in terms of straightforward clarity?

[unc70]

1. The first phrasing is better

The latter one would be better as "Sally and Fred are each twice as likely as Terry to win." It's really more about language than statistics.

[Orrex]

2. Thanks.

I was leaning toward the first one, but your rephrasing of the second is good as well (either 2x or 4x better than mine).

[Ron Obvious]

3. I'd go with "Both Sally and Fred are twice as likely to win as Terry is"

Your first sentence is fine. The second is correct too, really, but is more likely to be misunderstood.

Or possibly, Terry has a 20% chance of winning, while the others each have a 40% chance.

[trof]

4. Yes.

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