Ukraine (Socialist Progressives Group)

[TBF]

Bringing this over via a poster named "Comrade" who wrote an interesting post re Ukraine at another forum I frequent. This is beyond the resistance party, departing president, and all of that. He thinks a split may be happening in Ukraine and explains the breakdown.


He posits the following:

1, the Western Ukraine (technically northwestern on the map) is heavily pro-EU/pro-NATO.

2, the southern and eastern regions are heavily pro-Russia.

3, the central area (technically north-central on the map) is probably 50/50.

Around half of the country’s population lives in the south and the east, so most of the country's total population is pro-Russia. However, the problem is that, as far as I know, the Party of Regions and the Communist Party only have combined majorities in the regional governments in the south and east (the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the Donetsk, Kharkov, Lugansk, Zaporozhia, Dnyepropetrovsk, Odessa, Nikolayev, and Kherson oblasts). So when the country breaks up it will probably only be the eastern and southern oblasts that form the new pro-Russia country.

Here is a map of the Ukraine from Wikipedia, the blue areas will likely form a new pro-Russia country and be free from NATO and the EU:

[socialist_n_TN]

1. I've been hearing this possibility too.....

This is a pretty fucked up situation. There seems to be a TON of fascist and far right influence involved in this coup. I would hope that the working class and especially the middle and left wing parts of the working class in all areas (even the blue areas), are organizing. Including the organizing of worker's militias. I think they're going to need it. Fascists are not fond of working class rights and we KNOW the EU, under the control of the IMF is going to require some pretty heavy austerity for it's "help".

[postulater]

2. A Ukranian friend explained this to me yesterday.

Russia wants access to the Southern ports.

She said we see none of the real atrocities that are happening.

[TBF]

3. I'm sure the US and Russia

both want certain things. That is usually how the story goes ... I am more concerned about what the majority of the people (not the 1%) would like.

[postulater]

4. Yes, she was concerned that the violent radicals on both sides would

derail the peaceful change that the 99% are trying to make.

Especially if the radicals are funded by the 1%.

[joshcryer]

7. They got the President to extend the Naval lease for 25 years.

7 years before it was even due for renewal.

[TBF]

5. Pro-US coup in Ukraine Voltaire Network

| 23 February 2014

Under the control and in the presence of US diplomats, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine carried out a coup d’état, on 22 and 23 February 2014.

The Parliament first took note of the forced resignation of its president and appointed the former head of the Ukraine Security Service, Oleksandr Turchynov, in his place.

Then, 328 MPs out of 450 repealed the Constitution, substituting it with that of 2004 [1], that is to say without a referendum and in an emergency situation, thereby contravening Articles 156 and 157 of the Constitution.

In the process, the MPs deposed the president of the republic, Viktor Yanukovych, without complying with the impeachment procedure and without review by the Constitutional Court, in other words in violation of Article 111 of the Constitution.

They voted the release of former Prime Minister and billionaire Yulia Tymoshenko sentenced to 7 years in prison for abuse of power, and whose attorney is Oleksandr Turchinov.

Finally, the next day they proclaimed Oleksandr Turchinov acting president, in breach of Article 112 of the Constitution ...

Source: http://www.voltairenet.org/article182308.html

[joshcryer]

6. "most of the country's total population is pro-Russia"

Where are you getting that statistic? From what I see ethnic Ukrainians make up 77.8% of the population.

When you look at the native language background only Crimea is mostly Russian:



I think Crimea is the only part of Ukraine that can legitimately break away, but there exist some 25% ethnic Ukrainians and 12% Tartars. Any sort of breakup of Ukraine is going to be a bloody mess. It shocks me that it is being discussed as viable.

[TBF]

8. Well the Fascists no doubt have other plans joshcryer -

but I think from a socialist perspective we can at least hope some may break away and not fall under the Svoboda Party. It may be wishful thinking, and I'm not sure whether you'd accept RT as a source (with the anti-Soviet rhetoric amping up again I am often hesitant to post even in this protected group).

This is the map from that is being discussed -



Ukraine's Southeast seeks to restore constitutional order, thousands gather in Kharkov
Published time: February 22, 2014 11:21

The public gathering of deputies from local councils of southeastern Ukraine have declared they are taking responsibility for constitutional order in the country, as thousands of people have assembled in the city of Kharkov.

An assembly of local deputies in Kharkov, eastern Ukraine have stated their intention to restore “constitutional order” throughout the country, aiming to create an alternative government.

“We, the local authorities of all levels, the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol region decided to take responsibility for ensuring the constitutional order and the rights of citizens on their territory,” said the resolution approved by more than 3,000 deputies from local councils in the southern and eastern regions of the country – most of whom represent Yanukovich's Party of Regions and its communist coalition partners.

According to the resolution, local authorities should no longer accept any edicts from Kiev for the time being. Instead, they should resort to self-administration until the crisis is resolved.

Officials also intend to protect arms depots, preventing radical opposition activists from looting and staging the takeover of such venues. Citizens are encouraged to form local militias to protect public order. Local authorities are to fund and support those militias ...

More here: http://rt.com/news/thousands-gather-eastern-ukraine-252/

[socialist_n_TN]

9. Dual power situation developing here.......

So I think that a breakup is in the cards or at least a good possibility. I'm happy to see the call for a militia too. Otherwise the only organized groups will be the fascists and the proto-fascists.

[TBF]

10. I agree -

they are going to need a militia. I always point back to the Paris Commune as an example of what happens when you don't have one. It is heartening to see the people gather and decide to self-govern - now we'll see how the US and Russia both respond to that initiative.

[socialist_n_TN]

12. "- now we'mll see how the US and Russia both respond..."...

Yep, this factor is what makes this situation so complicated. There are imperial aspirations involving the EU (and the US) and Russia and those ambitions are going to impact the situation before this is over with I'm afraid.

[joshcryer]

14. What of the Tartars?

Who have very racial biases due to their treatment under a previous regime. Word is that they are arming themselves, too.

Is their agency to be ignored by the whims of these militias?

It seems unlikely the US will meddle beyond perhaps meager material assistance, given that American public opinion is tired of that crap. Drones and guns, a-OK, anything else, meh.

If anything it would play out like Abkhazia and South Ossetia, effectively overrun by Russian firepower and the minorities get the short end of the stick. You will note, btw, that the some 42% of ethnic Ukrainians and Tartars in Crimea voted decidedly against Svoboda:



And instead voted for the Communist Party:



These are people we'd agree with ideologically, who don't want the insecurity of a breakup.

[TBF]

15. Sure - the south and east are more

loyal to Russia. But it sounds like they'd like to take a shot at ruling themselves.

Of course you nailed why that likely won't happen with this sentence "I think Russia, EU, the US, all want a piece of whatever they can get of Ukraine ..." (while Ukraine has resources it's likely that Russia is most interested in that south port).

[joshcryer]

16. Russia needs to stay out of it.

But that is looking increasingly unlikely. Russia is looking to bring out the big guns.

[socialist_n_TN]

17. Russia WON'T stay out of it.......

Ukraine is part of their imperial ambitions as a "sphere of influence". That's what I meant by being caught between two imperialisms, the EU, backed by the US, and Russia.

Even though I'm sure they're classic Stalinist in party organization, the east is probably the place where we need to look to for a way out. In a dual power situation where you already have working class, self defense militia formation, you at least have a chance at a true worker's government coming out of it. Not that I expect the CPU to do anything but give it up to the Russians IF they come into the eastern half. But there's a possibility of something else happening whereas in the western half, it's over with for now. The west is going all in for a Shock Doctrine type of privatization/austerity pattern and, as such, they're farther away from a workers' government than the east.

Not that there's much of a chance in either area, but it's closer in the east than the west. These strains though are why there's a good possibility of a break-up. Definitely an interesting situation.

[joshcryer]

18. I think a "true worker's government" there is unlikely.

What Ukraine needs to do is refuse Russia's "debt for equity swaps" plan that they used in Belarus (with great success; forcing a country to be perpetually indebted and subservient). This is the Iceland approach, put everyone in jail who is in the top of government and who got rich by it. Default. Start over. If Russia wants to send gas through the country, then they must pay and charge fair market prices.

The problem is, unlike Iceland, which is very energy independent, Ukraine needs gas for industry. They're fucked if they can't get it, one bad winter without gas, a lot of people die, the economy tanks. Russia knows this. Russia has been planning this (Google "Russia–Ukraine gas disputes"; in 2009 Ukraine lost nearly half its GDP overnight!).

The east is going to be more and more culturally tied with Russia, whose oligarchs literally run the show, and it will be very difficult for any workers parties in eastern Ukraine to develop without being subjugated to the whims of the oligarchs, just as it has had problems dealing with the plutocrats. In particular there were no real uprisings in the east against the government, when ideally we'd see workers stand up against corrupt officials.

I think that Russia's efforts to meddle are going to cause a polarizing effect, where one could only claim maybe 10% of the opposition were Nazi's or fascists, you will wind up seeing a much larger number.

[joshcryer]

13. Svoboda has about as much sway as the Communist Party.

I'm fine with whatever source, but I think that such a break up of states is historically a disaster, especially if people have mostly been getting along for decades. You'll note that both parties are nationalist in nature, though one is Ukraine nationalist and the other is Russia nationalist (which is odd for a party that is inherently Ukrainian). They also appear to be polar opposites, with Svoboda claiming to be anti-communism and the Communist Party, naturally, being anti-capitalist.

I think Russia, EU, the US, all want a piece of whatever they can get of Ukraine, and I think that falling for those attempts has potential to weaken the country as a whole, at the cost of many lives. I think Russia, EU, the US all use varying name calling to define which sides. "Putin patsies" for the east and south east, "fascists" for the west and central areas. I think this is counterproductive when the parties that represent those concepts have little power overall, especially when Svoboda got less votes than even the Communist Party last time (though both made gains which is typical in polarizing environments, with the black and white left-white view of politics).

The Party of Regions is pro-Russia and got the most votes, but I wouldn't expect them to vote to break the country up. I think that would be unconstitutional, actually.

[TBF]

11. Ukraine: the Svoboda Party is Fascist

This increase in strength of far-right forces takes advantage of the position of the Svoboda (Freedom) party, which obtained more than two million votes at the last parliamentary elections. Until 2004, it was called the Nationalist Party of Ukraine, and it descends from the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), a fascist movement founded in 1929. Today it competes with even more radical neo-Nazi groups, including Pravyi Sektor (Right Sector), which groups together members of ultra-nationalist organisations such as Patriots of Ukraine, Trizouba, UNA-Unso. "These are the people who look after security on the Maidan and in front of the trade union building which has become the movement’s headquarters. They organise the barricades and use force against the police, without any condemnation from the opposition," the Russian daily newspaper Kommersant observes.

More here: http://www.humaniteinenglish.com/spip.php?article2425