Issa, Rohrabacher and Royce all voted Yes on AHCA -- they are fucked.

[SunSeeker]

These Orange County Republican asshats are already in a tenuous position, what with Hillary carrying Orange County. Now, their Dem opponents will kick their ass at the polls.

[Dawson Leery]

1. All three are worse than ISIS, no question.

[SunSeeker]

6. Their vote on AHCA would certainly kill a lot more Americans than ISIS ever did. nt

[Ken Burch]

2. What were their margins in their own districts last fall?

I know Issa just barely scraped through, but what about the other two?

[SunSeeker]

5. They only managed to get in the 50's against no-name, no-money opponents.

In the past they would cruise to victory with 60-70% of the vote. Now that they are seen as vulnerable, they are getting better opponents with financial backing.

Issa already has two tough Dem challengers: Applegate who is running again and environmental attorney Mike Levin. Issa raised $350k, while Levin quickly raised $276K, even with little name recognition. http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sd-me-levin-money-20170403-story.html

Rohrabacher has a strong Democratic challenger too, Harley Rouda. Rohrabacher raised $223,000 in the quarter and has $204,500 cash on hand. Rouda, a Laguna Beach businessman, raised $215,000 including $56,000 of his own money, and has $200,000 remaining. https://www.indivisible49.com/news/2017/4/24/congressional-challengers-in-district-49-already-raising-big-money-oc-register

And finally, Royce has picked up an interesting Dem challenger:

A former chemistry professor will challenge longtime Rep. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) — one of the seven Republican members of Congress in California whom the Democratic party has said it will target for defeat in the 2018 midterm elections. 

Phil Janowicz, a former chemistry professor at Cal State Fullerton who now runs a education consulting firm, is a first-time candidate. He'll start his campaign Tuesday.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-orange-county-republican-rep-ed-royce-1493085157-htmlstory.html

[stuffmatters]

10. The 49th is large majority a San Diego County District & Applegate squashed Issa in S.D. County

It was the failure of the DemParty in Orange County that squeaked Issa through. Levin, 2016 Chair of the OC Dem Party, failed to provide even minimal support for Applegate to defeat Issa in OC,even when OC went Hillary.

Levin is not viewed by the majority of Dems in our District, i.e. San Diegans, as the Issa opponent in 2018. The 49th has always been a San Diego district. I do not understand why anyone would ever label it an OC District or Levin the future Dem candidate from the 49th.

Applegate waged a smart & effective grassroots campaign ag Issa and defeated him soundly in San Diego County. Applegate even recently totally humiliated and weakened Issa's future campaigns in court! Applegate will run again and defeat Issa. That's the plan

I'm happy to contribute to Levin or anybody running against Mimi in OC. But the 49th...that belongs to San Diego,Lt Col Doug Applegate, and the grassroots whose hard work has already laid the foundation for Issa's inevitable defeat in 2018.

Btw any Dem challenger anywhere could learn volumes from Applegate's ads ag Issa, especially denouncing Issa (as so many Repugs did) for voting against the 911 1st Responders. Advertise their hideous voting records, that's how we win.

[SunSeeker]

11. The 49th includes South Orange County. A candidate ignores it at their peril.

The 2016 election in CD-49 was actually very winnable for Democrat Doug Applegate.  The difference: Applegate all but ignored South Orange County which delivered a decisive margin of victory to Issa by about 1,600 votes.  Even the Applegate campaign admits they made a mistake in not working the OC part of the district enough, and he’s already announced he’s running for the seat again.

http://www.theliberaloc.com/2017/03/08/mike-levin-will-challenge-issa-for-congress/

Mike Levin is an environmental lawyer and a good debater. He is a great candidate. As is Applegate. Either one should be able to beat Issa in 2018.

[stuffmatters]

15. The 49th was not "very winnable" for Applegate anymore than Thompson in Ks

It was a steeply uphill fight against Issa, who's historically sailed to reelection by about 20 to 30 point margins.
It was considered such an impossible win that all the DCCC,DNC, Dem Party purses stayed closed until October.
Even then the DCCC only, finally, ran a generic ad for Applegate that was actually a Hillary ag Trump ad, way less effective than financing more exposure for Applegate's specific ads attacking Issa's voting record and selfenrichment history in Congress.

Applegate put up such a good fight against Issa that it took three weeks post election to declare Issa the winner.(margin less than 1%) He won handily in North San Diego County and was defeated by the Republican majority in So OC. Of course he wishes he'd campaigned harder in OC. I'm sure he also wishes he'd had more resources and earlier from the National Dem Party, DCCC and the Dem Party Of OC,( where Levin was the Chairman)... all vital support towards flipping So OC.

I'm extremely well aware of the demographics of the 49th and am very politically active here. I do not know your situation or if you participated/contributed towards defeating Issa in 2016. Yes, I'm well aware the 49th includes a slice of OC, and that is where Applegate was outvoted by Repugs. But to attribute that OC defeat to Applegate alone and not the lack of support,money from the Democratic Party is absurd. Applegate did not fail the Dem Party in South OC, the Dem Party in OC failed Applegate. IMHO We don't need to switch candidates from Applegate, who has laid such a strong foundation against Issa to win the 49th in 2018, the Dem Party needs to up support for Applegate, targeting now this slice of So OC.

Keep in mind where Applegate upset Issa's applecart in the 49th was Camp Pendleton. As a respected and decorated combat Marine, Applegate easily won Camp Pendleton... always before Issa's and Republican's intractable insulation from defeat. That is really,really important.

Based on Issa defiant vote yesterday for the anti California, hideous Trumpcare, his meager victory in 2016 and Applegate's subsequent humiliation of Issa in court, I wonder if Issa is even going to run in 2018. I have a feeling Trump, for whom he's been such a big fan, is going to appoint Issa to some appropriately slushy job next year.

I think we'd both find that awesome!

[SunSeeker]

16. You can't blame the DCCC for not sinking money in a district Issa previously won by 20-30%.

Now that they know Issa is readily beatable, they are and will sink money into the race. It is not productive to bash Levin. They are both great candidates. Either Levin or Applegate will emerge from our Top Two primary with Issa. We shouldn't be damaging any Dem who may end up running against Issa.

We all will need to get behind that Dem, whichever of those two it is, because Issa IS running for reelection and will have a massive war chest. Republicans have put Issa in a special imperiled candidate program that will give him intensive support "with a communications plan, fundraising, campaign infrastructure and other necessities of a race." http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sd-me-issa-program-20170215-story.html

[stuffmatters]

18. Nope.It was pretty clear that only 5% divided them in June primary, the DCCC stayed away til Oct.

They made a serious mistake and hopefully learned from it for races in 2018. We need to win 23+ seats!

It's my right to express my favoritism (and the reasons) for one Dem over another for a primary. Last I heard that's not "bashing", it's democracy... as in Democratic Party and Democratic Underground.

We clearly have different experiences with the election in 2016 and different hopes and expectations for the 49th race in 2018. I've been a highly active and contributing Democrat for over 50 years and in North County San Diego for 15. I'm sure your background and passions are also dedicated to the Dem Party and victory over Issa and the Rs in 2018; on that we are in complete sync.

Right now my precious political time is better spent off this website with those here organizing,protesting against Issa directly. United,public visibility and pressure on Issa and local media seem our strongest (maybe only) recourse for this emergency, an emergency that cannot wait until 2018.

Perhaps our paths will even cross at one of these in person fundraisers,demonstrations or meetings.

[SunSeeker]

20. You have every right to say whatever your want. Even if it is hurts our chances in 2018.

So bash away if that makes you happy. I am just exercising my right to point out how counterproductive your anti-DCCC and anti-Levin statements are to your stated goals. But I do agree with you that your "precious political time" is better spent off this website.

[TexasTowelie]

17. I saw this article Friday morning that might answer some of your questions.

http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2017/05/republican-congressmembers-from.html

[stuffmatters]

19. Great and hopeful article!

[exboyfil]

3. Well all three of our Iowa Republican Congressmen

voted yes. I see Blum at a townhall on Wednesday, and I hope to ask him about his vote.

[SunSeeker]

7. Good! Thank you!

[fallrey]

4. Here are margins by which Clinton won in these districts

Link to tweet

[rtracey]

8. yeah, lets wait and see

Speak of this when these are facts, not myths. How many years has Issa being in Congress? someone votes for him, and it may not be the people who give a fuck about other lives.

[SunSeeker]

9. No, defeatist words and "wait and see" is not helping.

Fortunately, Dems are raring for the fight. The Democratic Party has targeted these three and will be helping their opponents. That has never happened before. Mike Levin has a great chance against Issa. So does Harley Rouda against Rohrabacher. Even Royce is going to have a fight on his hands:

A former chemistry professor will challenge longtime Rep. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) — one of the seven Republican members of Congress in California whom the Democratic party has said it will target for defeat in the 2018 midterm elections. 

Phil Janowicz, a former chemistry professor at Cal State Fullerton who now runs a education consulting firm, is a first-time candidate. He'll start his campaign Tuesday.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-orange-county-republican-rep-ed-royce-1493085157-htmlstory.html

How about campaigning for one of these three Dems, or sending them a buck, instead of sitting back? I assume you're a Californian since you're posting in the California group. How about volunteering to knock on doors for one of these Dems? Defeatist words and saying we should "wait and see" is not how Dems win.

[rtracey]

12. Not defeatist, reality

Sorry, reality needs to reign. Herd mentality is part of this countries complacency problem. I stand by my post. I am NOT a californian, but I am someone who has an extreme hatred for Darrell Issa, so I would want nothing more then to see him replaced. He is a thief, a conman, arrogant prick, yet.... is voted in by republicans every election. Fuckump was elected by not just republicans, but democrats,independents, green, libertarians.... Wait and see is not the way dems are elected, neither is sitting on asses and not voting at all.... I vote party every election, but I see reality too.

[SunSeeker]

13. You don't have to live in the state to volunteer to phone bank.

You don't need to donate money. As long as you can talk you can help.

I see reality too. That's why I know defeatism is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[rtracey]

14. ahhhh yes