California drought: Rare good news as storms move in, and El Niño conditions are emerging in Pacific

[Brother Buzz]

California drought: Rare good news as storms move in, and El Niño conditions are emerging in Pacific

By Paul Rogers
San Jose Mercury News
22 Feb 2014


Here's something you haven't heard much around California during the past 14 months: Get out your umbrellas.

Forecasters say significant rain is in the future -- both this week and possibly next winter, with computer models showing promising signs of an El Niño, the phenomenon when Pacific Ocean waters warm up, often bringing wet winters to California.

It's a double dose of positive news for the drought-stricken state. While predicting weather too far into future is still unreliable, this week's storm system charging in from the Pacific Ocean is a safer bet: The storm is expected to hit the Bay Area on Wednesday afternoon, bringing up to four days of steady rain that meteorologists say should provide a desperately needed soaking.

"It's pretty promising. All the computer models are in agreement, and that's a really good sign," said Duane Dykema, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey. "It looks like we'll get a series of storms with widespread rainfall."

Rainfall should vary from 2 to 5 inches across much of the Bay Area and the rest of the state, he said, with 2 to 3 feet of new snow in the Sierra Nevada.

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http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_25208082/california-drought-rare-good-news-storms-move-and

[antiquie]

1. In wanna dance in the rain!

[Brother Buzz]

2. I'm gonna wash my car on Tuesday to guarantee the rain...

Then I'll join you in that dance.

[Cleita]

4. Fall asleep to rain videos on YouTube and imagine the rain falling.

It's as good as a rain dance.

[Cleita]

3. Good. I'm getting sick of falling asleep to all those rain videos attempting to

manifest rain. We did get a pineapple express after that but it wasn't enough. This should get us back into business. The last time we had El Niños we were able to fill up aquifers and start up wells that had gone dry in my area.

[Brother Buzz]

6. That last pineapple express was something of a dud...

it was small, weak, and short in duration. This looks like the real deal, and with luck, it will be followed by a "March miracle" that could just carry us though this spell. I know the farmers in my area with anemic looking wheat and barley are smiling.

And if you can believe computer models, this trend could be the beginning of the end of this drought. Here's hoping for that "March miracle". And here's hoping we make preparations for the next drought by learning better ways to conserve even more water NOW.

The drought is only a reminder that water is a precious resource that should be conserved every day of the year, no matter the season. Conserving water makes as much sense in the middle of January as in the middle of July. - Lois Wolk

[Cleita]

7. Our local meteorologists are predicting some optimism for it.

Means I should get prepared for the power outages and other problems the heavy rains bring. I don't know where you are but you should do the same especially if you are rural.

[Brother Buzz]

12. I've been good to go for years

I noticed the utility tree trimming contractors in our area have been really, really busy taking care of business, and are way ahead of the job. They're so far ahead of the game, they're even working the easements to individual homes that were generally deferred in the past. I think the private tree services are making a killing tidying up after the 'butcher' utility contractors do their business.

[Cleita]

13. Yeah, the tree trimmers have been busy bees around here.

Sacramento must have given either them or PG & E some money. I can't see them paying for it themselves.

[Brother Buzz]

14. It's entirely on the utility's nickel

I suspect PG&E bean counters discovered it's far cheaper to hire cut-rate contractors to do the proactive work then to pay their own union workers to make repairs in the middle of storms, especially when you consider a substantial amount of that work is done on overtime.

[Auggie]

9. We received over 7.5" in my my 'burb ...

others in the North Bay reported up to 20" (Guerneville, Sonoma County i.e.). That was a big help for grape growers.

[Brother Buzz]

10. That's because the Pineapple Express had a laser focus on you

It didn't last long enough and have the intensity to serpentine up and down the state like a drunken fireman holding a hose.

[Auggie]

5. Excellent! Not to be greedy, but I hope it's cold enough to accumulate maximum snow levels

in the Sierras. That's the make or break qualifier for how much water we have in summer.

[Cleita]

8. I think there is hope for that because the snow pack is very needed. n/t

[PasadenaTrudy]

11. Fingers crossed! n/t

[antiquie]

15. SoCal's gonna get some too!

Fast Facts

•First rain expected Wednesday afternoon/evening
•Strong storm arrives Friday
•1-2 inches expected in LA Metro
•2-4 inches expected in valleys, IE
•10 inches of mountain snow possible
•Rain tentative on Oscar Sunday


Raines said no more than about a half-inch will fall through Wednesday and into early Thursday before a more powerful storm arrives on Friday.

In fact, he said, a polar jet will plunge deep into the southern portion of the state, dumping as many as 2 inches of rain in the Los Angeles Metro area and as many as 4 inches in valleys and Inland Empire.

In the local mountains, the storm is expected to bring between 6 and 10 inches of snow.

[MineralMan]

16. One hopes for it. I mentioned the upcoming storm(s)

to my parents on the phone and noted the 100% chance of rain for Friday. My 89-year-old father said, "We'll see." I hope they see lots of water.

[antiquie]

17. Lately, either the meteorologists are wrong,

or a little shower has been followed by drying winds, so I definitely get, "We'll see."