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Florida

OrlandoDem2

(3,234 posts) Fri Oct 12, 2018, 05:48 AM Oct 2018

2018 FL voter projection model - Day 1

Last edited Fri Oct 12, 2018, 06:29 AM - Edit history (1)

We are a little behind. It’s early but we must catch up in the projections. If you vote by mail send your ballot back ASAP!

https://thefloridasqueeze.com

2 replies

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2018 FL voter projection model - Day 1 (Original Post) OrlandoDem2 Oct 2018 OP

When the guy concedes he completely changed his forecasting methods at a late stage Awsi Dooger Oct 2018 #1

Thank you! I'm paranoid that people will stay home like in 2016! OrlandoDem2 Oct 2018 #2

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

1. When the guy concedes he completely changed his forecasting methods at a late stage

Reply to OrlandoDem2 (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2018, 01:08 AM

Oct 2018

I tend to pay very little attention to his current conclusions. The best handicappers/analysts I know found a logical reliable approach very early and have remained true to it, with minor adjustments.

I agree with Nate Silver that early voting numbers have a weak relationship to the final outcome, and very little predictive insight:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

OrlandoDem2

(3,234 posts)

2. Thank you! I'm paranoid that people will stay home like in 2016!

Reply to Awsi Dooger (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 13, 2018, 06:22 AM

Oct 2018

It’s all about the actual vote!

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