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Tue Nov 6, 2018, 02:15 PM

Any update on Florida at 2PM?

Here in Pinellas Democrats were ahead slightly with early and mailed votes. The repubs have caught up and gone ahead a little with voting today. Independent turnout is very large - and hopefully Gillum is ahead.

I haven't seen any numbers on the local news.

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Arrow 15 replies Author Time Post
Reply Any update on Florida at 2PM? (Original post)
Sancho Nov 2018 OP
Carl45 Nov 2018 #1
obamanut2012 Nov 2018 #7
mitch96 Nov 2018 #2
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #3
OrlandoDem2 Nov 2018 #4
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #6
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #10
Sunsky Nov 2018 #5
obamanut2012 Nov 2018 #11
Sunsky Nov 2018 #13
obamanut2012 Nov 2018 #9
obamanut2012 Nov 2018 #8
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #12
OrlandoDem2 Nov 2018 #14
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #15

Response to Sancho (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 02:46 PM

1. I am a little worried

Democrats clinging to a turnout lead of just under 2 percent in Jacksonville,but the reps are winning E day.not good

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Response to Carl45 (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:08 PM

7. Wrong

Thank you for being so concerned.

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Response to Sancho (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 02:57 PM

2. No word down here in So Fla

I drove by two polling places in Hollyweird and guess what!! NO LINES... I think everybody early voted. Or it might be a slow time (1pm) and it will pick up after people get out of work..
On the suggestion of some, I found out the last day of early voting in Fla was Sunday..
So following the crowd I waited on line for 2 hours in the heat to vote... I should have followed my instinct and just voted at my normal precinct and do the quick turn around.. I'm free during the day so it would have been a lot better than waiting...
The important thing is that I VOTED, go blue! ....
m

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Response to Sancho (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:39 PM

3. Steve Schale thinks it looks very bad in Florida due to GOP turnout

 

We had a narrow lead in early voting but are getting swamped in election day voting.

This is his ominous recent tweet:


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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:52 PM

4. No!! He predicts if we finish at +2 GOP lead Dems should be in good shape.

I am cautiously optimistic. But everyone needs to go effing vote!

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Response to OrlandoDem2 (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:05 PM

6. Independents are going to have to bail us out

 

Certainly possible but Nelson and Gillum are going to need double digit edge among independents and not the 6-8 point edge reported in some polls.

I have seen reports that Republicans already lead election day turnout by more than 135,000 votes in Florida and it could reach 200,000.

I still can't believe anyone thought those polls with Nelson or Gillum ahead 4-7 points were legit. This is Florida.

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Response to OrlandoDem2 (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:12 PM

10. Here is Schale's blog post describing what you said

 

+2 GOP turnout might be okay if independents break Democratic.

http://steveschale.com/blog/2018/11/6/like-the-jaguars-season-the-election-is-nearly-over.html

But this is from last night. I have sampled other venues and seen one Republican after another chirping that they are wildly exceeding projections in pivotal counties today. That was what foiled Schale in 2016. He used traditional forecasts in rural counties and they did not come close to holding up with Trump involved.

We'll just have to see

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:52 PM

5. Where are they getting these numbers from?

I have seen no reporting from Broward, Miami Dade etc.

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Response to Sunsky (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:12 PM

11. I am in SOFL -- there literally are no numbers yet

The polls do not close for hours. PBC, Broward, and Miami-Dade are very blue, and contained a huge percentage of the state's population.

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #11)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:29 PM

13. I'm in northern Broward

Anyone who believes Palm Beach county only has a 7.2K difference between D and R, I have a golden bridge to sell you. Then 50K D to 30K R in Broward, that's a joke. I can't believe folks are buying these numbers.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:10 PM

9. That si not what he is saying

Gloom and doom. They ahve no idea if we are "being swamped" anyway -- no numbers for today have been released.

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Response to Sancho (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:08 PM

8. The polls do not close for hours

So, there aren't any numbers.

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #8)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:25 PM

12. There are numbers on election day turnout by party

 

Steve Schale blogged last night it could be between 150,000 and 200,000 GOP advantage on election day, but he thought 200,000 was unlikely and preferred the lower number.

Today I am seeing GOP loyalists crunching numbers and asserting it will go beyond 200,000.

If that's the case then we are going to need a severe edge among independents.

I still have some confidence. Normally the party with the national tilt wins the vast majority of razor tight races.

I just wish pollsters wouldn't insult intelligence with lopsided polling in Florida statewide races.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #12)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:32 PM

14. There will be a greater number of GOP crossover votes to Dem - at least for Governor.

One blogger is reporting that GOP thinks itíll be a split decision.

We just need Dems to vote!!!!

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Response to OrlandoDem2 (Reply #14)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 04:47 PM

15. I'd be sick at a split decision

 

Rick Scott is slime but with all that personal finance he could remain a slime in the senate for decades.

Let's win both of these things.

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