Mapping Sherrill's dominant victory on N.J.'s legislative map
Assembly Democrats in New Jersey had reasons to be concerned this year. The Republican ticket was led by an experienced politician in Jack Ciattarelli, and anxiety over historical trends and polling accuracy led to a wary optimism entering Election Day.
The results of 2021 and 2024 posed a warning to legislative Democrats: Murphy had won a slim majority of 22 legislative districts in his re-election bid, while Kamala Harris secured 25 districts last year. Some Democrats feared a combination of Trump’s 2024 and Ciattarelli’s 2021 coalitions could sweep the latter to victory this year, and imperil many Democratic Assembly seats in doing so. (The State Senate wasn’t up this year, save for one special election in a blue seat.)
The anti-Trump wave, though, turned into a rip current, pulling districts thought to be solidly Republican into Democratic hands. Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic victor, flipped six legislative districts that Ciattarelli had won in 2021 (LDs 2, 4, 8, 11, 21, and 25), and came within 3% of flipping four more (LDs 3, 26, 39, and 40). Sherrill won 28 legislative districts — and came within a few points of carrying as many as 32, stretching the limits of the map.
In a year when everything had to go right for the GOP to have a shot at victory, nothing went right. South Jersey was central for Ciattarelli’s near-upset in 2021, but it was home to some of the biggest swings leftward last month. After winning the 1st legislative district by about 19 points in 2021, he won it by just 6 this year. He won the 2nd legislative district by about 7% in 2021, but he lost it by nearly 9% this year.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/mapping-sherrills-dominant-victory-on-n-j-s-legislative-map/
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