Beware of an article circulating about North Carolina being evenly divided politically

[mnhtnbb]

It was even posted by the Institute for Southern Studies,


How North Carolina’s GOP Undid 50 Years of Progress in Less Than 5
Until Republicans took control, the state had long been known as an outpost of Southern progressivism. This year’s elections may indicate whether the state’s shift to the hard right is in step with most voters.
by Chris Kardish | July 2014


http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-north-carolina-southern-progressivism.html



I first saw this article this morning on fb, and when I read the numbers which Gallup (should be a red flag)
quoted (Republicans 41.9% and Democrats 41.3% ) I knew something was fishy. Why? Because I not only
live in NC but have studiously watched the voter registrations--and turnout--over the last 10 years. Sure enough,
when I went on the BOE website this morning to check the numbers (now conveniently hidden since the Republicans
have taken over the state, they were previously right at the top of the home page) I discovered Gallup to be not only off,
but WAY off.

So, I added this comment to the post on fb for the article:

One needs to always fact check numbers, especially if they come from a known Republican polling group (Gallup). From the breakdown of registered Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, Unaffiliated on the NC Board of Elections website, these are the real numbers (6/28/14):

Democrats: 2,753,081 42.2% of registered voters
Republicans: 1,997,609 30.6% of registered voters
Unaffiliated: 1,749,914 26.8% of registered voters
Libertarians 23,852 .4% of registered voters

http://www.ncsbe.gov/webapps/voter_stats/results.aspx...

One doesn't know where Gallup got their numbers as reported in this article:

"While North Carolina is experiencing a huge spike in the number of voters who don’t identify with either party, Gallup routinely finds it to be among the most politically balanced in the country, most recently putting Republicans at 41.9 percent of the population and Democrats at 41.3 percent. "

it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Gallup just made the numbers up to suit the meme that NC is an evenly divided state.
NC Voter Statistics Results
www.ncsbe.gov

[appal_jack]

1. Excellent point on the numbers, but the article is otherwise well-written.

Excellent point on the numbers, but the article is otherwise well-written.

Some favorite paragraphs:

Starting in the 1920s, North Carolina took a different path to economic development than its low-tax Southern neighbors, adopting a “business progressivism” that emphasized spending on infrastructure and building a university system that would come to rank among the best in the country. For much of the last century there was generally a consensus in both parties around the idea that this public investment strategy was the best approach. The investment in the university system led to the creation of Research Triangle Park, an area stretching from Durham to Chapel Hill that’s now home to more than 170 companies. “The corporate leadership went along with the political leadership and the public investments they supported,” says Rep. Paul Luebke, a Democrat with more than two decades in office.

...

In addition, the Associated Press revealed that the legislature’s sweeping Regulatory Reform Act included provisions that weakened compliance rules for utilities such as Duke, and emails have shown coordination between the company and public officials on everything from the settlement to lobbying efforts. “We understand they have to work with companies, but we think the first responsibility of the agency is to protect the public and the natural resources, and they don’t have customers,” says Frank Holleman, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center. “They’re not a hardware store or a grocery store; they’re a public agency that has been given the legal authority to enforce the law and to promote the public interest.”

While the state may not be as 'balanced' registration-wise as Gallup and the article claim, we progressives and Democrats certainly have a heck of a fight on our hands to try and turn things around.


-app

[mnhtnbb]

2. I agree it's going to be a battle to turn things around here, BUT

I think that the numbers indicate that the state is not as far right wing as
Pope/McCrory and the Repub Legislature have taken it.

I think there's an excellent chance that things can be turned around
within the next 4 years. Of course, by then, things may have gone
pretty far down the toilet. Look at the destruction they've done
in just one year.

[littlemissmartypants]

3. Kicking. nt

[FBaggins]

4. Sorry... that's wrong.

This has been the case for decades (though the impact has been shrinking). Many southern states have had overwhelming Democratic advantages in registration figures... but not in self identification or voting patterns. Lots of people never change their voter registration. If you only vote in general elections (as is the case for most voters), you may not even realize it.

Gallup's number could very well be off, but it's almost certainly based on self-identification in the poll.