Musings: How to Beat Greg Abbott

[TexasTowelie]

Last week’s social media showdown between Governor Greg Abbott and a refreshed but angry Beto O’Rourke still has Texas abuzz, but maybe not for the right reasons.

No doubt, for erstwhile Texas Democrats, the prospect of having O’Rourke bring his magic to the top of another ticket is undoubtedly tempting. Still, the reality remains that on paper, Abbott has a long and strong electoral record in Texas.

Abbott’s 2018 victory over former Dallas Sheriff Lupe Valdez was his worst performance on a statewide ticket this millennium, despite O’Rourke nearly beating Ted Cruz just above him on the ticket. Even still, he managed to trounce a perpetually out-of-her-element and underfunded Valdez by 13 points.

Therein lies the rub for Abbott and the GOP strategists boldly thumping their chests and claiming to be spoiling for an opportunity to take on O’Rourke. While Abbott has scored some resounding victories, he hasn’t been tested anywhere near as seriously as O’Rourke tested Cruz, or 2018 candidates Mike Collier and Justin Nelson tried Lite Gov. Dan Patrick and indicted AG Ken Paxton, respectively.

Read more: https://texassignal.com/musings-how-to-beat-greg-abbott/

[TwilightZone]

1. Abbott, Patrick, and Paxton are all quite well entrenched.

Paxton even won a race *after* he'd been indicted.

Statewide races are still an uphill climb and probably will be for some time. Beto was the strongest candidate we've had in a while and he still lost to Cruz, who even Republicans hate. It really isn't indicative of a typical statewide race, though many believe otherwise.

We'd need a solid, well-known, popular candidate and record turnout. As long as Latino turnout lags in Texas (and gets peeled off by GOP propaganda about immigration, "defund the police", and other issues), taking any statewide positions is going to be a challenge. A lot of Valley counties were much closer in 2020 than expected, which was a little disturbing.

That being said, we're obviously making gains. I've been predicting a breakthrough as early as 2024 (I didn't think 2020 would be as competitive as many assumed and I think 2022 is a bit too soon demographically). Continued progress and a successful first two years of the Biden Admin would certainly help.