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Thu Dec 1, 2016, 03:43 PM

Why Wisconsin's Presidential Results Are So Unbelievable

In the run-up to the this year's election, the New Yorker ran a Paul Noth cartoon of a Kremlin-esque war room, with high ranking officials sitting around the United State's red-blue electoral map. The caption:

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/p1mCldu97NIwQG4xemguOWOCT_rfwVTgKCL3aZQmGx-zWlnFZQRxcBEhedZxCXykGXZwRvwGR_LySb7GG8l7uMU0NPZguDvZ07nrEZcalFg6TdsSMGyHItO7y8XXO0YBR-PEb9i3
"In the end, it all comes down to Waukesha County"

Waukesha County, as many political nerds know, delivers the single biggest pot of votes to Republicans in the fertile "WOW" set of suburban Milwaukee counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington). In order to win statewide, a Republican typically needs to run up big margins in the WOW counties, keep margins in check in the dem strongholds of Dane and Milwaukee counties, win the Fox Valley region around Green Bay by about ten points, and roughly break even in the rest of the state.

In 2012, Mitt Romney won Waukesha and the two other WOW counties by about a 133,000 vote margin, but lost the state by a 213,000 vote or 7 percent—to President Obama. This past election, Trump won the WOW counties by only a 105,000 vote margin—28,000 fewer than Romney's losing effort. In fact, if you look at the previous four presidential elections in Wisconsin, Trump's margin in the WOW counties was about 20 percent below the average.

On the other hand, Clinton won the Dem strongholds of Dane and Milwaukee by a 309,000 vote margin—about the same margin as Obama's 310,000 edge over Romney in 2012. That's about a 20 percent higher margin of victory than the previous four presidential elections in Wisconsin.

Read more: http://www.progressive.org/news/2016/11/189082/why-wisconsins-presidential-results-are-so-unbelievable

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Reply Why Wisconsin's Presidential Results Are So Unbelievable (Original post)
TexasTowelie Dec 2016 OP
Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #1
MichMary Dec 2016 #2
ginnyinWI Dec 2016 #3

Response to TexasTowelie (Original post)

Thu Dec 1, 2016, 04:19 PM

1. I think they are underestimating

 

how red the Fox Valley has become.

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Response to TexasTowelie (Original post)

Thu Dec 1, 2016, 04:21 PM

2. I grew up in rural Wisconsin

The results are really not that surprising. People in the rural areas who wouldn't have voted for Romney or McCain came out of the woodwork to vote for you-know-who. Those votes could easily have made up for the votes he didn't get in Waukesha County.

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Response to TexasTowelie (Original post)

Fri Dec 2, 2016, 10:20 AM

3. I live in Waukesha County.

It's mainly suburbs, exurbs, and subdivisions except for the county seat of Waukesha which is a blue island. But these are mostly educated homeowners, not low information voters. Living in bedroom communities and commuting into Milwaukee. Not surprised DT got fewer votes. I saw hardly any signs for him, but no signs for Hillary either.

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