How is the Jo Cox assassination likely to affect the referendum?

[Ken Burch]

Last edited Sat Jun 18, 2016, 08:47 PM - Edit history (1)

Before she was killed, it was looking as though the Leave side was surging in support...is this likely to change that in any way? I know that campaigning is suspended by both sides until Monday, so this is more about the effects on public consciousness.

[4139]

1. Her murder was unrelated to the referendum,

[Ken Burch]

2. The man who killed her was shouting anti-EU slogans as he shot and stabbed her.

And here's how he identified himself at his arraignment today:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jo-cox-murder-suspect_us_57653d70e4b015db1bc98d1e?section=

[4139]

3. She tried to breakup a fight between two guys and it turned horridly bad

[LeftishBrit]

4. Seems to have been the other way round according to witnesses

Bernard Kenny, a man of 77, tried to intervene when Mair attacked the MP; Kenny tackled Mair, and Mair stabbed Kenny. Kenny is still in hospital, but is expected to recover. As it turns out, he is a retired miner, who acted heroically in a colliery disaster rescue 40 years ago, so obviously a man of courage in many ways.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/retired-miner-who-tried-to-tackle-jo-cox-was-also-hero-of-collie/

[Denzil_DC]

7. Plain wrong, from all accounts.

A hero pensioner was stabbed in the liver – the blow narrowly missing his heart – as he tried to save Jo Cox.

Bernard Kenny, 77, was meeting his wife, parked outside the library, when he saw the MP being attacked.

He immediately ran to her aid, risking his own life to tackle the maniac gunman.

But as Jo lay bleeding to death, Mr Kenny was set upon, bundled to the ground and stabbed in the stomach as he tried to defend her.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hero-pensioner-77-stabbed-liver-8222043#rlabs=2%20rt$sitewide%20p$6

[Ken Burch]

10. Then why was the guy who killed her still stabbing her

WHILE she was lying helpless on the ground?

And while shouting xenophobic and anti-EU slogans?

It seems to be important to you to try to disassociate the Leave side with this assassination. Why is that? I know that some people are planning to vote Leave because they think a Leave win will hurt the political establishment, but clearly it won't. The only people who gain from a Leave victory are racists and those who want the bonfire of the protections of working people and the right to a fair trial that breaking with the EU will inevitably and permanently cause.

There is no chance of a Leave victory ever leading to a socialist or even social democratic UK. It can only produce a far-right government dominated forever by the racist-fascist-imperialist "values" of Nigel Farage.

To paraphrase Orwell "picture a yellow coat smothering a human face-forever".

[LeftishBrit]

5. It certainly seems to have been related to xenophobia

The suspect has links with the far right, and shouted 'Britain first' or 'Put Britain first' when he attacked Jo Cox, and, when charged with the murder, gave his name(!) as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain".

It is not quite clear whether this referred mainly to the referendum, or to Cox's staunch defence of Syrian refugees; but I think the timing is unlikely to be pure coincidence.

[Denzil_DC]

8. On what do you base such a categoric statement?

Her attacker was heard saying “Britain first, Keep Britain independent, Britain always comes first,” Cawthorne said. When he was arrested by police he told them “I’m a political activist,” the prosecutor told the court.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jo-cox-murder-suspect_us_57653d70e4b015db1bc98d1e?section=

Seems like a lot more than an ugly coincidence.

[4139]

9. "It’s believed she was trying to intervene in a dispute between two men when she was brutally attack

http://www.thesun.ie/irishsol/homepage/news/7201051/British-MP-Jo-Cox-has-DIED-after-being-shot-three-times-and-stabbed-with-a-foot-long-knife.html

Likely the initial report

[Denzil_DC]

11. (a) That's the Sun.

Nevertheless, maybe you didn't read as far as this quote from an eyewitness:

Asked if he thought Ms Cox had intervened in a dispute he said he understood the altercation was “always between the guy carrying the gun and the lady that got shot”.

(b) Numerous reports now give the timeline Leftishbrit and I have pointed out to you. Here's another, with an account from a CPS official:

David Cawthorne, from the counter-terrorism division of the Crown Prosecution Service, told the court that Cox had visited a primary school and care home on Thursday morning, before heading to the library with colleagues for a surgery with her constituents. She was stabbed and fell to the ground, where she was shot and stabbed again.

Mair is alleged to have said “Britain first”, “this is for Britain”, “Britain always comes first” and “keep Britain independent” as he attacked the MP, prosecutors said.

Bernard Kenny, 77, was waiting for his wife in his car outside the library at the time of the attack, Cawthorne said. Kenny recognised Cox and saw a man approach and stab her. He intervened and was himself stabbed in the abdomen, forcing him to retreat into a nearby shop, the court heard.

Mair told police he was a “political activist” as he was arrested a mile from the scene, the prosecution said. Officers said the accused said “it’s me” when he was confronted; he was then tackled to the ground, handcuffed and searched. During the arrest, Mair also confirmed his name.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/18/jo-cox-murder-suspect-thomas-mair-told-police-he-was-political-activist?CMP=share_btn_tw

From the same article:

A written summary of the prosecution’s case revealed the findings of a search of the defendant’s house. Newspaper articles relating to Cox and ideological material relating to extreme rightwing and white-supremacist organisations and individuals were recovered from the property.

Still want to claim it had nothing to do with the referendum and Cox was the unfortunate victim of trying to break up a fight?

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. So far, there has been one poll from a regular pollster after the killing, and it shows

a small swing to Remain - but so has a poll taken immediately before her death:

Opinium’s weekly poll for the Observer has topline figures of REMAIN 44%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), so split right down the middle. The fieldwork was conducted between Tuesday and Friday, but the majority was before the murder of Jo Cox. Full tabs are here.
...
UPDATE: There is also new Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday. In this case the fieldwork was conducted on Friday and Saturday, so took place wholly after the death of Jo Cox. Topline figures, with changes since Survation’s midweek poll, are REMAIN 45%(+3), LEAVE 42%(-3) – so Remain are back in the lead after dropping behind in the week. Interesting, but it is as yet only one poll…

UPDATE2: There is a new YouGov poll (one of two tonight) for ITV. Topline figures are REMAIN 42%(+3), LEAVE 44%(-2). Like Survation the poll shows a swing back towards Remain, but unlike Survation this poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, wholly before the attack on Jo Cox, suggesting that there may have been a swing back towards Remain anyway. There is a second YouGov poll out later tonight for the Sunday Times, with fieldwork conducted on Thursday and Friday…

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9717

There was also a poll by a firm that normally does corporate brand polls via phone apps, which seemed to show a huge swing to Leave, but I don't think that's reliable. My guess is that there might be a small swing in the polls for a day or two towards Remain, but it's unlikely to last until the vote on Thursday. All it would take is one new major news story, unrelated to the referendum, to get her death out of people's first thought about 'the state of the world'.

My Update: Since that blog post, the 2nd YouGov poll has come out. It shows Remain 44%, Leave 43%.