If Jeremy Corbyn is forced out, the Labour Party will go back to standing for nothing.

[Ken Burch]

Last edited Mon Jun 27, 2016, 12:25 AM - Edit history (1)

And remain a party in which internal democracy does not exist.

And lose badly whenever the next election is held.

There will be no policies that challenge austerity or neoliberalism, and no passionate Labour supporters at all...only those who think Labour should reduce itself to being the second party of the status quo.

This will drive away everyone who joined to support Jeremy, and no one at all will come in to replace them.

Leave won because of the Tories and the Blairites. There is nothing Jeremy could have done to prevent it. What the Blairites are really angry about is that he acknowledged that voters in the North have a right to be angry about the austerity the EU's spending constraints imposed on Westminster, and the economic restructuring the EU imposed that left the economy of the North to slowly die. New Labour should never have accepted those EU policies, should have challenged them at every turn, because the European project never depended on forcing every EU country to cut its social wage down to nothing.

There is nothing any possible Labour leader to Corbyn's right could have done or said in Corbyn's place that would have made and difference. Andy Burnham is a Northerner, and yet the overwhelming majority of Northern towns he campaigned voted Leave.

It is probable the the plotters will get there way and Corbyn will be deposed. But the soul of the party will be deposed with him.

This can only lead to mass demoralization of grassroots Labour supporters and certain defeat in a snap election if it come.

[truebrit71]

1. It will be a return to centrist Blairism and the death of the Labour party.

It has very similar echoes of the Bernie/Hillary fight with Corbyn looking to save the soul of the party.

[Denzil_DC]

3. Scotland's vote has only decided a UK election 2 or 3 times since 1945,

so that's a myth.

If Labour wants to govern in the UK, it has to win in England and Wales. With very few exceptions, that's always been the case.

In any case, I don't think there's a potential UK Labour leader on earth who could undo what Labour's done to itself in Scotland.

[Denzil_DC]

5. Then you'll be able to point me to the times

Scotland's vote's been decisive like that. I didn't just make it up.

I live in Scotland, BTW, so we've had reason to pay attention to this in the past.

[Ken Burch]

6. Here's a list of Scottish seat distribution in every UK election since 1830:

(that is, since the era when the Whigs were one of the two largest parties):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Scotland

To narrow it down to post-1900 elections:

The Scottish results decided the outcome in both 1910 elections(keeping the Liberals in power by the thinnest of pluralities, gave Labour its narrow overall majority in 1950, gave just enough seats to return to power in 1964, and narrowly put Labour over the top again in both 1974 elections.

So in a close contests, Scotland has often cast the deciding votes.

[Denzil_DC]

7. I said since 1945.

And what you've posted bears out what I said. It's rare, not "often", even in the timescale you've chosen.

See here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11552991/The-general-elections-where-Scotland-decided-who-ran-the-UK.html

The Telegraph puts it at three or four times in 70 years.

Labour won't regroup in Scotland anyway, so it's not worth arguing about. Those days are gone.

If independence does happen, the electoral map will inevitably be redrawn anyhow. It was due to be redrawn in this parliament, no doubt to reduce the number of Scottish MPs, though who knows if that'll happen now?

People keep telling me Labour has to court the non-Labour-voting electorate, be pragmatic, not too lefty, all that. OK. Go ahead. Looks like you may have no choice.

ETA: This sets it all out pretty clearly: http://wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-doesnt-need-scotland/

Even of those four occasions, the effect has been marginal in a couple, adding to Labour's tally, but not giving it government. Hence not being decisive. Which is what I said.