United Kingdom
Related: About this forumStephen Crabb: No snap election if I am new Tory leader
The Preseli Pembrokeshire MP and work and pensions secretary said stability was his aim and such polls would simply create more uncertainty.
Mr Crabb rejected claims he was prejudiced against gay people, after his opposition to same-sex marriage.
...
His supporters will make much of his relatively modest background - comprehensive school rather than Eton. Welsh, although born in Scotland, he'll argue he is the man to keep the UK together.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36659421
Another hat in the ring.
So, that's Johnson sure to run by the look of it, and May may.
Ironing Man
(164 posts)the odious Liam Fox has been hawking himself about the tv studios, but i don't think he's had any bites - he may actually be deluded enough to think he stands a snowballs chance in hell, but he's probably just looking for a job. he doesn't stand a chance though - firstly no one likes him, secondly everyone laughs in his face about his 'friend' who he let attend TS MOD meetings, and thirdly he'll be forever associated with the appalling 2010 SDSR, which the rest of the government spent the next 6 years regretting and undoing...
Nicky Morgan is, apparrently, thinking about it but by no means sure, and Andrea Leadsom is also thinking about it.
some will, some won't...
i don't know what the mechanism is - can't remember if its vote, lose the bottom 1 or 2, vote again, lose the bottom 1 or 2, and continue until you arrive at just two, or if its a straight vote with the top two hived off to be voted on by the membership.
slightly surprised Justine Greening isn't having a go - well regarded as a minister at DFID, socially popular in the PCP...
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)Fox, an avowed Brexit supporter, told LBC radio he wanted to paint an optimistic picture of our country, arguing that as a former minister he would bring expertise to the role.
Asked what he would bring as leader that Johnson would not, Fox said: Its a question, I think, of nuance, of experience, of background, which of course matter in politics. Its a matter of setting out a very clear stall. I think we cant allow the Conservative leadership campaign to be totally dominated by the issues of the referendum there are many other issues I care passionately about.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/stephen-crabb-conservatives-defends-opposition-to-gay-marriage
Plus he'll bring a close friend who stands to benefit financially from getting to have his ear. I bet the other candidates won't be bringing that.
I really hoped we'd seen the last of Fox. He's very like a slimy Republican - dubious financial ties, and links to 'think tanks' that keep him supplied with easy money while he plots a return to government.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)Sarah Vine, Michael Gove's wife, accidentally copied an email to "a member of the public", and they passed it to Sky News. Andrew Sparrow on the Guardian blog dissects it:
Very important that we focus on the individual obstacles and thoroughly overcome them before moving to the next. I really think Michael needs to have a Henry or a Beth with him for this mornings crucial meetings.
Analysis: That we is very telling. There is nothing unusual about a wife, or husband, offering their spouse support but that we suggests that the Gove/Vine operation is something of a duopoly. It is very House of Cards. Or, as Skys Kay Burley has said slightly less charitably, it makes Sarah Vine sound rather like Lady Macbeth.
The references to Henry and Beth are to Goves special advisers, Henry Cook, Henry Newman and Beth Armstrong. It is normal for cabinet ministers to take their advisers with them into meetings but there is a suggestion here that Gove needs to have someone sitting alongside him to strengthen his resolve. (This is surprising. Of the many complaints about Gove as a minister, lack of steel is not one. It is not spelt who the meetings are with, but they may well be Boris Johnson, and perhaps Gove finds it harder saying no to Johnson than he did to government colleagues.)
One simple message: You MUST have SPECIFIC assurances from Boris OTHERWISE you cannot guarantee your support. The details can be worked out later on, but without that you have no leverage.
Analysis: This is where Vine sets out the Gove/Vine negotiation red line. Sadly, the email does not say what those specific assurances are. A job? A policy commitment? Or perhaps both? But the key point is that Vine is describing this as a transaction. And she is also implying that Johnson cannot be trusted; the assurances have to be specific otherwise Johnson will not be bound by them. (Students of Boris Johnson would point out that even if Johnson has made a specific promise, that is no guarantee that he will keep it, but thats another story.) And those capital letters are worth noting too. It is the epistolary equivalent of a rant. (At the risk of sounding like Kay Burley, Lady Macbeth would have typed her messages in caps if they had had email in 11th-century Scotland.)
Crucially, the membership will not have the necessary reassurance to back Boris, neither will Dacre/Murdoch, who instinctively dislike Boris but trust your ability enough to support a Boris Gove ticket.
Analysis: This reinforces the point about Johnson being untrustworthy. Vines claim that the party membership will need reassurance to back Johnson is surprising, because the regular ConservativeHome survey shows that members do support Johnson. But Vine is surely right when she talks about Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre (the editor of the Daily Mail). Vine used to work at the Times, and now works for the Mail, and therefore surely knows the internal politics of both media groups extremely well. Murdoch is known to be a strong supporter of Goves, and it is thought that Dacre rates him highly too (although the Mail may have its doubts about Goves liberal prisons agenda). The crucial claim is that Murdoch and Dacre instinctively dislike Johnson. If this is true, in Dacres case it may be because of Johnsons womanising, and in Murdochs case it may be because of Johnsons core liberalism. Vine says Goves key value to Johnson is his ability to win over Britains two most powerful press barons. Who said the power of the press was waning?
Do not concede any ground. Be your stubborn best.
Analysis: Or, as Lady M put it, Screw your courage to the sticking place. Kay Burleys comparison seems more and more apt.
Ouch.
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)Also, inexperienced.
truebrit71
(20,805 posts)....
LeftishBrit
(41,210 posts)LeftishBrit
(41,210 posts)Apparently being poor, welsh and having a beard...
I wouldn't be surprised if his youth and lack of baggage appealed to both MP's and the membership in principle, but I think they'll baulk at giving him the job after just 6 months in cabinet - particularly given the new PM's in-tray.
They may also distrust the cheesy nature of the 'dream team' guff he cooked up with Javid, and the idea of going for a religious nut - if that's what he turns out to be - is likely to be less than attractive.
Aware as I am that Tory leadership elections tend to spring surprises, I think they'll go for Theresa May.
Response to Ironing Man (Reply #7)
Ken Burch This message was self-deleted by its author.
Response to Ken Burch (Reply #9)
Ironing Man This message was self-deleted by its author.
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)BBC on Mr. Crabb's story: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-36656052
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Did not realize how it might be interpreted and I should have. Deeply sorry.
Denzil_DC
(7,257 posts)The opposite of Crabb, if you like.
I don't know if that gives me a right to an opinion that's any more valid than anyone else's, but I didn't find your comment offensive. It seems some didn't like it, but nobody's been able to explain to me why, and I've asked twice now.
Nevertheless, I'm happy we have a mod team to take those decisions, I support them in whatever they've done behind the scenes, and I'm glad you're unblocked.