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Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:03 AM

Andrea Leadsom to stand down...

She will announce her decision to withdraw at 12:15.

She didn't take the heat for very long.

37 replies, 5211 views

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Reply Andrea Leadsom to stand down... (Original post)
BooScout Jul 2016 OP
Denzil_DC Jul 2016 #1
BooScout Jul 2016 #2
Denzil_DC Jul 2016 #9
muriel_volestrangler Jul 2016 #3
BooScout Jul 2016 #4
RogueTrooper Jul 2016 #5
T_i_B Jul 2016 #8
RogueTrooper Jul 2016 #6
non sociopath skin Jul 2016 #7
BooScout Jul 2016 #11
muriel_volestrangler Jul 2016 #12
RogueTrooper Jul 2016 #13
muriel_volestrangler Jul 2016 #15
mwooldri Jul 2016 #23
RogueTrooper Jul 2016 #26
muriel_volestrangler Jul 2016 #28
Denzil_DC Jul 2016 #17
Denzil_DC Jul 2016 #14
non sociopath skin Jul 2016 #18
muriel_volestrangler Jul 2016 #25
RogueTrooper Jul 2016 #27
T_i_B Jul 2016 #32
RogueTrooper Jul 2016 #35
Denzil_DC Jul 2016 #36
T_i_B Jul 2016 #37
LeftishBrit Jul 2016 #16
RogueTrooper Jul 2016 #29
Denzil_DC Jul 2016 #10
non sociopath skin Jul 2016 #19
Denzil_DC Jul 2016 #20
Denzil_DC Jul 2016 #21
BooScout Jul 2016 #22
auntpurl Jul 2016 #24
Denzil_DC Jul 2016 #33
auntpurl Jul 2016 #34
LeftishBrit Jul 2016 #30
muriel_volestrangler Jul 2016 #31

Response to BooScout (Original post)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:05 AM

1. Thanks. Was just about to post this!

Andrea Leadsom to pull out of Tory leadership race, reports suggest - Politics live

Still just a rumour via the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg, but:

Leadsom statement due at 12.15pm

Andrea Leadsom will make a statement at 12.15pm, her team confirm.


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-578378dee4b0d813c3288ca3#block-578378dee4b0d813c3288ca3

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #1)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:09 AM

2. A pretty solid rumour....

...judging by the level of press presence outside her front door, lol

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Response to BooScout (Reply #2)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:56 AM

9. Oh, yeah ...

But I've learned to take anything Kuenssberg says with a pinch of salt till confirmed!

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Response to BooScout (Original post)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:10 AM

3. And that, children, is how you choose a Prime Minister in a democracy

Does May just waltz into the job now, Gove gets back in as 2nd loser, or they re-open nominations?

It's confirmed - she says she backs May now: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-57837efae4b0eebd3158704f#block-57837efae4b0eebd3158704f

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #3)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:18 AM

4. Maybe there will be a write-in candidacy for Boris?

....just to keep things joking along.

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Response to BooScout (Reply #4)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:33 AM

5. Nominative Determinism

Those leavers don't hang around, do they?

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #3)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:53 AM

8. Leadsom strongly endorsed Theresa May

Which leads me to suspect that May will now effectively be elected Tory leader unopposed.

My own thoughts? Whilst Leadsom was very unimpressive I do wonder if people at the top of the Conservatives were concerned about the grassroots electing an IDS/Corbyn type of party leader. Some people may well consider this a stitch up.

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Response to BooScout (Original post)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:34 AM

6. Chances of May calling a general election this year?

I can see her calling one right in the middle of the Labour leadership election.

With the vote on Trident coming up it's clear that the Tories are still up for getting in their tribal kicks.

Edit: Also, how much of today's "orderly change of power" do peeps think was choreographed?

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Response to RogueTrooper (Reply #6)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 07:46 AM

7. I've just said this in Another Place.

I am beginning to feel that a great deal of this has been deliberately choreographed.

It's all fallen into place far, far too neatly.

That's why the Tories will always have the edge over democratic parties.

The Skin

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Response to non sociopath skin (Reply #7)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 08:07 AM

11. Yup...

I've thought that all along. Everything has just slid into place just all too easily.

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Response to RogueTrooper (Reply #6)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 08:16 AM

12. The government can't call a general election without the support of the opposition

With a fixed-term parliament, the government needs two thirds of the Commons votes to call a new general election. Even if the SNP, DUP etc. agreed to it, they'd still need some Labour votes. It would be truly bizarre for some Labour MPs to do that in the middle of their own election.

The Trident vote is, as you say, a way of stirring the Labour hornets' nest.

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #12)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 08:37 AM

13. The just need a vote of no confidence

that only requires a simple majority.

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Response to RogueTrooper (Reply #13)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 08:41 AM

15. The government can't call a vote of no confidence in itself

Only opposition parties can. The fixed term parliament act was designed to make it impossible for a government to call an election just for its own advantage - but with the two thirds rule in case there's widespread agreement that an election really is needed for the country.

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #15)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 11:52 AM

23. Doesn't mean the governing party can't ask another party to propose a no confidence vote.

Plus a snap General Election can be a way to undo the referendum vote.

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Response to mwooldri (Reply #23)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 11:56 AM

26. Whilst I don't think they will undo the referendum result

I can see them asking the Ulster Prods it initiate the vote.

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Response to mwooldri (Reply #23)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 12:04 PM

28. That would be handing a great campaigning point to Labour

It would say "look, we don't care about the law we passed about fixed term parliaments, so we'll pretend the DUP put this forward themselves, and then agree we have no confidence in ourselves, but we don't really mean that, we're just gaming the system to gain an advantage, despite introducing a law that was meant to stop us doing that". It's a good way to call themselves both stupid and slimy at the same time.

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Response to RogueTrooper (Reply #13)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 08:47 AM

17. Just read it up:

Under the FTPA, Parliament’s fixed five-year term can only be truncated in two ways. First, if more than two thirds of the House of Commons vote to call an election – and that means 434 of the 650 MPs, not just two thirds of those in the chamber. The second is more complicated. If a motion of no confidence is passed or there is a failed vote of confidence, there is a 14-day period in which to pass an act of confidence in a new government. If no such vote is passed, a new election must be held, probably a mere 17 working days later.

http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/11067/the-not-so-fixed-term-parliaments-act/

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #12)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 08:41 AM

14. Unless they quickly repeal the fixed-term measure

(very little time left in this sitting of Parliament), wouldn't they have to effectively orchestrate a vote of no confidence in themselves?

I don't believe this was orchestrated, just yer usual cockup, but it does cut out a month or so of scrutiny of May (including some really ugly stuff from the UKIP side) during the leadership campaign.

I don't think there's a precedent for this happening. What happens next is in the hands of the 1922 Committee. The Independent was quick off the mark:

The relevant section of the rules, in schedule 2, say:

“The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board.”

It adds:

“If there is only one candidate at the time laid down for the close of nominations, that candidate shall be declared Leader of the Party.”

1922 Committee chair Graham Brady confirmed shortly after Ms Leadsom's resignation that Ms May would be elected unopposed – subject to formal approval by him and the Conservative Party board.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-party-tory-rules-constitution-rulebook-leadership-election-theresa-may-1922-committee-a7130691.html


So no reopening of nominations, looks like it's a done deal. Wonder if they'll stall, to avoid embarrassing Cameron with calls for him to step down like right now, before the recess?

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #12)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 09:38 AM

18. The "truly bizarre" seems to be the PLP's stock-in-trade at the moment ...

The Skin

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Response to non sociopath skin (Reply #18)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 11:53 AM

25. OK, Labour's election coordinator has now called for a general election

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #25)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 12:02 PM

27. In fairness to the oppostion parties; it is something that they have to say

Although I suspect the Lib Dems would be keener on going to the country than the People's Party right now.

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Response to RogueTrooper (Reply #27)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 12:47 PM

32. Let me put it this way

Last edited Mon Jul 11, 2016, 02:26 PM - Edit history (1)

Looking at the mess that is politics at a national level, I can see a strong case for joining the Liberal Democrats right now.

However, looking at local politics I would have to say the exact opposite! Whilst I may be strongly persuaded by the Lib Dems merits over Tories & Labour right now, they have by their own admission completely died out in my constituency. If I were to join them I would be, as they might say on "Little Britain" the only lib dem in the village. And in the neighbouring town of Chesterfield the entire local party was suspended last year over a bullying scandal. Looking in the other direction, there is a local Lib Dem MP, but that's Nick Clegg, who is not my favourite Liberal Democrat to put it mildly.

Plus my local Labour MP only has a slim majority and will be hard pressed to prevent the nightmare scenario of the Tories taking the seat at the next election.

If only Labour would stop being such a complete basket case of a party.

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Response to T_i_B (Reply #32)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 02:31 PM

35. The British Left have turned into the Nottingham Forrest of politics

Once champions of Europe; now we are in constant relegation dog-fights punctuated be comedy changes of manager

Zinger, aside: Those are salient points TiB.

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Response to RogueTrooper (Reply #35)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 03:06 PM

36. The British left are in surprisingly good health at the moment.

Really.

They're just not represented by those in Labour PLP who think, for some unknown reason, they have proprietary rights on the term.

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #36)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 03:16 PM

37. "Lions lead by donkeys"

That's the description I would use. And it's not just the PLP either.

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Response to RogueTrooper (Reply #6)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 08:41 AM

16. Dunno about a general election. If Labour are still in turmoil, she might, though

Just because if Labour weren't in turmoil, they'd beat the Tories without making any effort at all; so May might strike quickly while the Labour circular firing squad is still on.

Also not sure how much was choreographed - but certainly they put more planning into this than in anything to do with making sure that the UK and its citizens would survive after we followed Boris et al over a cliff!!!

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Response to LeftishBrit (Reply #16)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 12:05 PM

29. On the choreography

My thinking is that the planning probably started Sunday afternoon. I don't see any big conspiracy here: She probably just realised how out of her depth she was and called it off. The rest is just good political instincts on behalf of the Tory Party - calling the announcement at the same time as Eagle's leadership announcement. Then eating up the rest of the day's news-cycle with news about the coronation.

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Response to BooScout (Original post)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 08:01 AM

10. This is NOT going down well among Leadsom's UKIP support!

Lots of griping about a "fix" and the need for "feet on the ground" and "Sharia May" (they've been going BIG on that line on Facebook etc.).

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #10)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 09:41 AM

19. Stand by for the Dropping of the Brexiteers ...

... and negotiations to ensure that the bits of the EU links which benefit the 1% stay, while the bits that don't go.

Which, I guess, was pretty much the game plan all along ...

The Skin

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Response to non sociopath skin (Reply #19)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 10:03 AM

20. I think there were a few game plans,

none of which were thought out at all because nobody beyond the fringe thought Leave would win - in fact, Leave winning was a worst-case scenario for many of the leading Brexiteers!

Quitter ex-MP and vociferous online expat loon Louise Mensch may not be a reliable bellwether despite a large following, but she was heavily in the Leadsom camp till this morning, and May had done, and could do, absolutely no right.

Within an hour, Mensch overcame her cognitive dissonance and went from "OH NOOOES MAY!!!1!" to "Well, she's not so bad," to "The EEA's not so bad, and May'll be able to pull the Art. 50 trigger all the sooner because she doesn't have to wait till September!"

I think there may be a lot of that about at the moment. There may be even more "HELLTHEFUCKNO!!! TO THE BARRICADES!!!!", but there's only so long I can spend reading round the drivel pools.

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Response to BooScout (Original post)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 11:36 AM

21. Cameron's just announced that May will take over as PM

"by Wednesday."

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #21)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 11:49 AM

22. He wants to take his summer holiday asap I guess.

I'm no fan of May....but good riddance to Cameron.

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #21)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 11:52 AM

24. With a real skip in his step.

He looks genuinely pleased. Wanker.

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Response to auntpurl (Reply #24)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 12:59 PM

33. Off to the back benches to watch the chaos unfold in comfort.

"Dave's not here."

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Response to Denzil_DC (Reply #33)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 01:02 PM

34. That last "Right" as he entered number 10

sounded like it was followed up with "where are my swimmers and who saw the passports last?"

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Response to BooScout (Original post)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 12:07 PM

30. I'm increasingly reminded of Hilaire Belloc's 'Lord Lucky'

Lord Lucky, by a curious fluke,
Became a most important duke.
From living in a vile Hotel
A long way east of Camberwell,
He rose, in less than half an hour,
To riches, dignity and power.

It happened in the following way:
The Real Duke went out one day
To shoot with several people, one
Of whom had never used a gun.
This gentleman (a Mr. Meyer
Of Rabley Abbey, Rutlandshire),
As he was scrambling through the brake,
Discharged his weapon by mistake,
And plugged about an ounce of lead
Piff-bang into his Grace's Head——
Who naturally fell down dead.

His heir, Lord Ugly, roared, "You Brute!
Take that to teach you how to shoot!"
Whereat he volleyed, left and right;
But being somewhat short of sight,
His right-hand Barrel only got
The second heir, Lord Poddleplot;
The while the left-hand charge (or choke)
Accounted for another bloke,
Who stood with an astounded air
Bewildered by the whole affair
—And was the third remaining heir.

After the Execution (which
Is something rare among the Rich)
Lord Lucky, while of course he needed
Some help to prove their claim, succeeded.
But after his succession, though
All this was over years ago,
He only once indulged the whim
Of asking Meyer to lunch with him.



Modern version:

Theresa, by a curious fluke,
Became a sort of modern duke.
From being loved not one small bit,
And mostly called: 'That ghastly twit!'
She rose in what seemed just an hour
To be the obvious one in power.

It happened in the following way:
The Real P.M. went out one day
To chat with all his cronies, one
Of whom was keen to jump the gun.
This fellow, Boris of the Johnsons,
Who loved to talk a lot of nonsense,
Tried to lead us all off a cliff.
He thought we'd not all jump - but if
Enough folks followed him, with them
He'd stage a coup - and be PM.
A glorious defeat might make
Him ruler - but quite by mistake,
He won! - and off the cliff we fell
And David Cameron fell as well.


His heir, George Osborne, cried, "I guess
I'd rather NOT clear up this mess!"
And ran and hid quite out of sight.
Boris exclaimed 'I'm now all right!
Knives in their backs have won! - Alack!
I feel Gove's knife now in MY back!'

Gove thought he'd be the last one standing,
But others with knives were now commanding.
He stood with an astounded air,
Bewildered by the whole affair -
Was there now one remaining heir?


The Tories found someone so awful
That even May looked almost lawful:
'Prime Ministers? We need to get some.
At least she's not that dreadful Leadsom!'
Theresa, though she hadn't needed
To win the people's vote, succeeded.
But even a genius or a saint
(Two things which our Theresa ain't!)
Would find it very hard, I guess,
To clear up This Almighty Mess!!!

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Response to LeftishBrit (Reply #30)

Mon Jul 11, 2016, 12:13 PM

31. Bravo!

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