Zac Goldsmith loses Richmond Park byelection to Lib Dem

[Denzil_DC]

Sarah Olney 20,510

Zac Goldsmith 18,638

This overturns Goldsmith's 23,000 majority when he stood as a Tory.

The byelection has been widely seen as a straw in the wind about Brexit. Goldsmith thought his opposition to Heathrow's third runway would be enough to win it for him. Apparently not.

Lib Dems win Richmond Park byelection, overturning Zac Goldsmith's 23,000 majority - live

Last I heard, expectations were that Labour's share of the vote would be down - likely a lot of tactical voting.

ETA: Yes, Labour's Christian Wolmar got only 1,515 votes.

In the 2015 general Election, Goldsmith got 34,404 votes, the Lib Dems 11,389 and Labour 7,296.

[Denzil_DC]

1. More background:

Lib Dems unseat Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park byelection

...

One of the more unusual and closely contested byelections of recent years saw the Conservatives, Greens and Ukip step aside entirely, while Labour was marginalised, with voters instead offered choices akin to a referendum on two parallel issues.

Goldsmith, the defeated Conservative candidate this year for London mayor, campaigned entirely on local issues, particularly fears that the planned new runway for Heathrow will bring more plane noise to the south-west London constituency.

Although Goldsmith stood as an independent, the Conservatives decided not to put up anyone to oppose him, while Ukip also threw their weight behind his candidacy.

In contrast, the Liberal Democrat candidate, Sarah Olney, sought to target feelings about Brexit in a seat that voted 72% to remain in the June referendum but was represented by a leave supporter, albeit a low-key one.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/02/lib-dems-unseat-zac-goldsmith-in-richmond-park-byelection

[T_i_B]

2. Brilliant news!

A clear vote against leaving the EU and Zac Goldsmiths political grandstanding.

Zac Goldsmiths demise has been about the only positive thing that's happened to British politics in 2016.

[Bad Dog]

3. I didn't realise the byelection was yesterday.

Wonderful news, the best thing that's happened politically in 2016. Goldsmith's face is a picture, he thought they loved him.

[Dworkin]

4. Good news!

Hi,

This is the first bit of good news for a long time. Not only a vote against the Tories but also a symbolic vote against UKIP.

If the Lib Dems can get over the message that they were royally shafted in the coalition government and will never be walked over like that again, then they have a future IMHO. As a moderate left of centre voter, I would have no qualms with any left leaning coalition against the Tories, who's economic mismanagement is leading us deeper and deeper into the mire.

The tories (mainly Hammond) have already admitted that Brexit will still mean paying dues to the EU for single market access, so maybe, just maybe, the Brexit debacle can be moderated? If only the troublemaker Farage could be disposed of and replaced by a decent MEP.

D.

[Bad Dog]

6. I don't think them being royally shafted in the coalition is why their support has slipped away.

I think it was the ripping up of a solemn pledge on student fees in return for a referendum on voting reform, which they lost because it was seen as a vote for Nick Clegg. Until they 'fess up to what they did they will not repeat this byelection success in the general election.

[T_i_B]

7. I agree with much of this

With the Tories becoming more extremist and unhinged, and Labour retreating up their own behind the Lib Dems are becoming increasingly attractive to me, especially as the only genuinely pro free trade party we have left. It clearly isn't a coincidence that British politics has gone badly wrong since their influence was almost entirely wiped out at the last election.

However, their behaviour over Tuition Fees is a real millstone round their neck, and will continue to be so for decades to come. Destroyed their credibility, and wiped the party out in many areas of the country.

[Bad Dog]

8. What hurts is their inability to own up to this.

And all the bollocks about being noble and acting for the good of the country just made we want to throw up.

[T_i_B]

9. Like I said, it will take years to repair the damage

I suspect that the central party will only be able to admit that they screwed up once Nick Clegg & Co are long gone from politics.

I think that the Lib Dems have started to pick up support, but only very slowly and from an extremely low starting point. Please bear in mind that the coalition had the effect of totally wiping the party out in many places. And if the Tories and Labour were actually doing a good job they might actually still be on the downward slide!

[Bad Dog]

12. I think they're picking up support too, but it is very slow.

Politicians of all colours have a habit of extrapolating a huge amount from one by election result. I don't think this was so much about Brexit or Heathrow as it was a huge rejection of Zac Goldsmith as a person. At the last election he was a rather colourful, affable, hooray henry type with quite a high profile. Since the mayoral election he's shown himself to be a nasty bigot.

[T_i_B]

13. Nasty bigots are currently very fashionable

The trouble is, that shit doesn't play very well in London, even if it gets lapped up in the home counties.

[Bad Dog]

14. Agreed.

Hopefully Goldsmith will retire from politics, but I'm not so sure.

[Denzil_DC]

10. I think pinning this all on the Lib Dems risks missing something more significant.

It's also dangerous to try to read too much into one byelection in pretty unique circumstances, obviously.

But the point I take away from this result is that it was a battle between two coalitions: mainstream Tories and UKIP on the one hand, and the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour voters on the other, along with Remain-supporting Tory voters.

Labour voters no doubt voted tactically in some numbers for the Lib Dems (been there myself a few times, and still bear the scars after the last time!). The Labour candidate, Christian Wolmar, got roasted for what was seen as a graceless concession speech for, among other things, pointing this out, and rather presumptiously saying those voters were on loan and Olney should be sure to take good care of them.

The local Green parties voted not to stand a candidate. Caroline Lucas actually endorsed the Lib Dems in this byelection and actively campaigned for Olney - and took some heat for it from notables in the local party, who called for its members to vote Labour instead.

Lucas has hailed the result in these terms:

Speaking to The Independent Ms Lucas said the Lib Dem victory in Richmond Park shows that when progressive parties are "willing and able to work together then we can win against the so-called regressive alliance".

"It often feels as if the right of the spectrum are more organised at getting themselves together to maximize their chances under what is an incredibly dysfunction electoral system," she added.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/richmond-park-by-election-green-party-cred-lib-dem-victory-zac-goldsmith-caroline-lucas-a7451536.html

There are coalitions there on certain issues in certain constituencies at certain times that can overturn the applecart. How that could be harnessed to make a difference on a UK national level is the million-pound question, but if nothing else, it's pared away at May's majority. Getting Labour on board to make electoral pacts to maximize the anti-Tory vote is likely to be the main challenge.

(I'm pretty sure that Lucas would include the SNP in this progressive alliance in parliamentary terms, but obviously they couldn't play a meaningful part in any such electoral pact at a local level because they only stand in Scotland. Also, the Scottish Green party's a separate entity, and although supportive of the SNP government on a number of issues, isn't large enough to make a significant impact in any constituency where the SNP couldn't compete on its own terms.)

I should also add - not even with hindsight, as I felt this way at the time - that if Clegg had had the guts to go for the messy, unstable "rainbow coalition" that was possible after the 2010 election, rather than throwing his lot in with the Tories then not capitalizing anywhere near enough on the power the Lib Dems held, we'd probably be having very different discussions in a very different country right now.

[T_i_B]

11. The Greens impressed a lot of people in the Remain camp during the referendum

Myself included. And from that it has become apparent that in order to challenge the Tory / UKIP hegemony in British politics we need the different parties and factions on the left to work together, and that furthermore an alliance between the Lib Dems and the Greens is the best place to start. The informal alliance in Richmond Park has clearly paid dividends.

There were also some clear local factors at play. With the proponents of Heathrow expansion not standing, the whole reason for Goldsmith to call the by-election was neutralised, which left leaving the EU, a subject where Goldsmith is clearly not serving the needs of his constituency as the main issue.

It's also worth noting that there are not many places left where the Lib Dems are in 2nd place, and therefore able to make this sort of impact. The 2015 election has left the Lib Dems way adrift in 3rd or 4th place in most constituencies. Quite grim really when I consider that the 3 main candidates in my constituency next time around are all likely to be cheerleaders for leaving the EU.

[Denzil_DC]

15. They're a mixed bag, the Greens, like any party.

If we could siphon some of those Brexitmillions into cloning Caroline Lucas, we'd be a far, far better country.

[LeftishBrit]

5. Good news!

A blow to Brexit; another spoke in Zac Goldsmith's wheel, which I hope will end his political career; and a demonstration, against much evidence to the contrary this year, that one cannot ALWAYS simply buy political success for oneself.

[T_i_B]

16. In further by-election news....

Conservatives hold Sleaford as Labour pushed into fourth

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38258976

Caroline Johnson: (Conservatives) - 17,570

Victoria Ayling: (UKIP) - 4,426

Ross Pepper: (Liberal Democrats) - 3,606

Jim Clarke: (Labour) - 3,363

Marianne Overton: (Lincolnshire Independent) - 2,892

Sarah Stock: (Independent) - 462

The Iconic Arty-Pole: (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 200

Paul Coyne: (Independent) - 186

Mark Suffield: (Independent) - 74

David Bishop: (Bus Pass Elvis Party) - 55

The Tories win confortably, although it's worth mentioning that the only one of the main parties to increase their share of the vote was the Liberal Democrats. Labour is up shit creek without a paddle thanks in no small part to their inability to take a clear, credible stance of the issue of Europe.

[LeftishBrit]

17. Well, it's a super-safe Tory seat and turnout was low

The one bit of good news is that UKIP decreased their vote percentage, which doesn't always happen in low-turnout by-elections.

[T_i_B]

18. The Tories have effectively become UKIP

And that makes it extremely difficult for UKIP to make any headway in Tory areas. However, they have a clear opportunity when up against Labour, especially in areas where the population is aging and overwhelmingly white.