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Tue May 28, 2019, 07:30 AM

Remainers won these elections - and they'd win a second Brexit referendum

What happens next is outlandish. About 100,000 of an ageing tribe, whose party scraped a derisory 9% in the European elections, are about to choose the next prime minister for all the rest of the UK’s 46 million voters. The Conservative party, which likes to call itself “the most successful party in the western world”, is now funded more lavishly by the legacies of its dead members than by its living ones. The keys to Downing Street have been handed on before in this high-handed monarchical manner without an election, but that doesn’t make it any less disgracefully undemocratic, as with so much of our failing constitution. Avoiding the legitimacy of election did Gordon Brown no good at all, giving him the hunted air of an insecure Richard the Third-ish usurper. The success of both the Brexit party and the Liberal Democrats’ “Bollocks to Brexit” riposte has obliterated the illusions of middle-ground, fence-sitting compromisers. Tory fears of the Nigel Farage surge will make it all the more likely that the crown falls into Boris Johnson’s incapable hands. The new prime minister’s lack of legitimacy will be a serious weakness, after the party scored its lowest vote since 1832.

That abysmal result will see the Tories move heaven and earth not to call a self-immolating general election, which would let the Farage hordes on to their Westminster turf. But with the same cast of MPs, the new prime minister inherits the same parliamentary maze, an Escher drawing of impossible hyperbolic geometry where each staircase leads back to an infinite beginning. Extraordinary that a Tory chancellor of the exchequer says he may bring down his own government with a vote of no confidence if any step is taken towards the no-deal Brexit stair. Yet the new leader will have been chosen on a promise to take exactly that stairway to hell... Trapped in the same paralysis as Theresa May, what happens next? The new leader will reach an impasse where going back to the people is the only escape parliament can agree: a referendum will look less alarming than a general election to both main parties. Instead of a mauling by Farage, the Tories would share his hard Brexit platform in a final conflict in this long culture war.

This is the only way to cauterise the gaping national split and confront once and for all the many dark issues that lurk beneath the nativist Brexit idea. By now, escaping from Brexit altogether offers a better long-term chance of recovery for the Tory party than being for ever branded with the dire consequences of a no-deal economic disaster.

In these elections remain was the winner, not Farage. What mattered beyond the number of seats won was the sum of remain votes. Lib Dem, Green, Scottish National party, Plaid Cymru and Change UK outpolled Brexit and Ukip by 40.4% remain to 34.9% hard Brexit. Now add in Labour and Conservative votes, divided – as pollsters Britain Thinks and YouGov suggest – by allocating 80% of Tory votes to leave, and 60% of Labour votes to remain. That suggests a remain win in a referendum by 50% to 47%. Certain? Of course not – it’s close – but this three-point remain majority certainly makes it a democratic outrage to press ahead with any kind of Brexit without giving voters the final say. And what is not in doubt is that there’s a clear majority against a no-deal Brexit...


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Reply Remainers won these elections - and they'd win a second Brexit referendum (Original post)
Ghost Dog May 2019 OP
zipplewrath May 2019 #1
Eyeball_Kid May 2019 #2
zipplewrath May 2019 #3
Eyeball_Kid May 2019 #4

Response to Ghost Dog (Original post)

Tue May 28, 2019, 08:54 AM

1. Put the plan on the referendum

I suspect that if they put a very specific plan on the referendum, in essence opposite a "remain" choice, the remain would win by large margins. Because as soon as you specify some details like a hard Irish Border, any specific plan won't enjoy large support. Right now it appears that various Brexit supporters have different ideas on exactly what the means and what the details will be. And they all don't really agree. It's why May couldn't get a deal because no matter what she offered, some group or another wouldn't agree, even if they were relatively favorable to leaving the EU.

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Response to zipplewrath (Reply #1)

Tue May 28, 2019, 09:05 AM

2. For the Britons who love the pain

of economic collapse in lieu of EU stability, a hard Brexit is an exciting opportunity.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Reply #2)

Tue May 28, 2019, 09:11 AM

3. But the other 80%

I suspect that is a small slice of the population.

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Response to zipplewrath (Reply #3)

Tue May 28, 2019, 10:31 AM

4. Rural Brits were captivated by:

Tribalism, egged on by Cambridge Analytical/Russian bots, disregard for their own economic plight, anti-immigration sentiments, and a terrible PR effort by those wishing to remain in the EU. Overall, an exit from the EU will invariably mean economic collapse in the UK. Right now, Corporations are fleeing the UK ahead of trade complications. They'll lose money if they stay. IOW, capital is leaving the UK and not coming back. But the Brexiteers don't care. They see political advantages in leaving, certainly not economic ones. It's as if the UK is holding a gun to its head and a mosquito is pushing in on the trigger finger.

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