Peterborough by-election: Labour beats Brexit Party to hold seat

[Denzil_DC]

The Labour Party has seen off a challenge from the Brexit Party and held on to its seat in the Peterborough by-election.

Nigel Farage's candidate Mike Greene had been tipped to win the contest, but union activist Lisa Forbes managed to retain the seat for Labour.

Paul Bristow for the Conservatives came in third place.

...

A total of 15 candidates stood in the by-election, including Beki Selleck for the Lib Dems, and John Whitby for UKIP.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48532869

The by-election, triggered after the previous Labour MP was sent to prison earlier in the year, lost her Labour Party membership and was subject to a recall petition, was widely trailed as a coup in waiting for the Brexit Party after its success in the European elections (Peterborough voted 60% Leave in the EU Referendum).

In the end, the Tory vote held up well enough to let Labour retain the seat with a slightly increased majority (683, compared to 607 in 2017, when Labour took the seat from the Tories), though it looks like it'll be a three-way marginal in the next general election.

Main parties' results (apologies for the Andrew Neil pic):



2017 results for comparison:

Fiona Onasanya (Labour) 22,950
Stewart Jackson (Conservatives) 22,343
Beki Sellick (Liberal Democrats) 1,597
Fiona Radić (Greens) 848

Turnout 67.5%

ETA: Changes in vote share since the 2017 GE:

[Celerity]

1. So glad to see the Tories failed to take advantage of Fiona Onasanya's utter stupidity.

What a cock-up that was.

[Denzil_DC]

2. I'm mainly relieved the Brexit Party didn't manage to capitalize on the situation.

If they'd won their first MP, we'd never have heard about anything else over the summer, even before they bother drawing up a manifesto.

As it is, they're having to console themselves with a good showing for a new party. But if they can't win at Westminster in fertile ground for them like Peterborough with the previous MP being disgraced, then it looks like they still have quite a hill to climb. And the longer it is before their next crack at electoral success, the more chance people will have to take a good look at them and what their candidates actually stand for and the more time for the inevitable infighting and scandals to break out.

I'm not overjoyed with a Labour win given the party's indecipherable stance on Brexit, but it seems the Tories have plenty to worry about as they wage their leadership election.

[Celerity]

3. +1

[Denzil_DC]

4. Some of the Brexit Party reactions on Twitter are fantastic:

Link to tweet

Warwick Brexit Party @WarwickLeaveEU

The people of Peterborough were clearly too thick to know what they were voting for! We need to have second By-Election where the facts are clearly laid out and we can a reasoned debate based on evidence. The politics of Hate and Anti-Semitism must be driven out of #Peterborough

Piers deMerclesden @deMerclesden
Replying to @WarwickLeaveEU

No, no, no - the people of Peterborough have spoken. There need never be an election in Peterborough ever again. Ever! To do so would be to go against the will of the people. #PeterboroughByElection

Link to tweet

17.4 Million ➡️
? @17point4million

If you add up all the other parties in the Peterborough by-election, you'll see that Labour actually LOST.

[LeftishBrit]

5. Thank goodness. Anyone But Brexit!

[T_i_B]

6. Pretty much my own thoughts

The OAP block vote appears to have gone en mass to the Brexit pity party, and Labour appear to have benefited from anti-Farage tactical voting.

[Denzil_DC]

7. In the flurry of opinion today, not many pundits have mentioned tactical voting.

Last edited Fri Jun 7, 2019, 09:07 AM - Edit history (1)

It struck me that it was likely a factor, but I guess it's hard to prove.

It's no doubt one reason for Farage and UKIP never doing well at Westminster, it's something Farage & Co. are going to have to contend with in any Westminster election, and isn't likely to be reflected in opinion polls.

If Peterborough's new MP weathers the storm following her election and puts up a decent showing on local issues (which she says is what she campaigned on - she's a pretty ardent Leaver AFAIK), having one party as the clear main opponent to the Brexit Party may help tactical voting in that constituency in a future general election.

[T_i_B]

8. Looks like Lisa Forbes is already in trouble over the usual Corbynite flaw

Link to tweet

?s=19

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/lisa-forbes-apologises-anti-semitism-peterborough_uk_5cfa2564e4b006ad194f50ce

Newly-elected Peterborough MP Lisa Forbes has apologised for liking an anti-Semitic post on Facebook, saying: “I don’t have a bad bone in my body towards any race of people.”

The Labour politician came under fire during the by-election campaign after it emerged she had liked a post saying Theresa May had a “Zionist slave masters agenda”.

But Forbes’ election – which saw Labour beat the Brexit Party by just 683 votes – has not been universally welcomed by Labour MPs.
Influential backbencher Jess Phillips said that while she was glad Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party had lost the seat, she could not be “gleeful or proud” because “it shows that anti-Semitism is becoming normal in the party”.

[Denzil_DC]

9. If Jess Phillips didn't exist, Farage, the Tories and the media would have to club together

and invent her. (I did mention Forbes having to weather "the storm".) Phillips lives in a very fragile glass house herself, but she's a typical useful rent-a-gob.

In the grand scheme of things, if we could have looked forward 20 years ago and seen a situation where liking a Facebook post was a disqualifying transgression for any politician, I suspect we'd have been bewildered. The Tories in the EU are in league with anti-Semites and Holocaust deniers, and as for the Brexit party .... I look forward to all that receiving some serious attention sometime.