The way I see Brexit going and we are screwed

[Soph0571]

Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister.
He will push for no deal because he does not have the skills to negotiate any kind of deal, other than the one currently on the table, that is why he is saying we will leave on October 31st. He KNOWS he cannot deliver anything else.
Labour will then, finally, have to come out on the side of a new referendum.
Right thinking Tories will vote for a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister and the government will fall.
A general election will be announced and Labour heartlands in the North will desert the Labour party and vote for the Brexit party, because for them Brexit is all that matters right now.
The Conservatives and the Brexit Party will have enough members to form a coalition as the majority in Parliament.
Boris Johnson will remain Prime Minister
Nigel Farrage will become Deputy Prime Minister
We will go out on a no deal Brexit.
We will be completely screwed for three decades, at least.
The end.

[donkeypoofed]

1. With two dumbasses in charge you certainly would be screwed

Farage is an unindicted criminal and Johnson is an asshole. I'll pray for the UK -.you're going to need it. So sorry.

[rurallib]

2. I am not from the UK, but that is one depressing scenario you paint there

some of which will no doubt spill out to the world.

[Soph0571]

3. Once upon a time I was an optimist and then in about six months in 2016 I got everything wrong

Never thought Brexit would happen.
Never believed people could vote for Trump.

Now, believe the worst and anything better than that is a bonus.

On this I fear the worse and I think I will not be wrong...

And yes there will be a sting in the tail for everyone else. We live in a global community after all.

[rurallib]

4. I was ready to jump out a window in November of 2016

but there is nothing taller than 2 stories around here, so about all I would do is break a leg at the worst.

I understand what you mean. It is like some form of contagious stupidity has overtaken the globe.

[Soph0571]

5. Heh

I stayed up and watched the results through the night. Always take the next day off work so I can watch to the end. I literally turned off all news outlets for 48 hours. I was so fucking angry. Still am every time I see the horrors that he has wrought.

We are about to go down the same rabbit hole.

[BooScout]

6. Ummm...

How is Farage going to be Deputy PM when he isn't a member of Parliament? ...Much less the Brexit Party has ZERO members in the House of Commons currently so I don't see them suddenly gaining a plethora of seats.

I do agree that we're screwed with Boris as pm though.

[Soph0571]

7. I think there will be q general election and the Brexit Party will take between 30 and 40 seats...

[BooScout]

8. Lol...

Now I consider myself pretty jaded these days, but naaaah, I don't see that happening. Still....it's all very depressing and frustrating....and where Boris is concerned, rather revolting.

[Soph0571]

11. I am at my deepest state of pessimism on this issue

Trump
Brexit

Both those things mean anything can happen - I am going to the worse case scenario as I see it. If I am wrong that is a winner!

[Denzil_DC]

9. The polls are all over the shop at the moment.

I've seen projections for the Brexit Party of anything from 1 seat to 90 to 200-odd. First past the post is an unpredictable system.

The recent Euro elections aren't much of an indicator because historically UKIP (now superseded by the Brexit Party) has done well in them, turnout has been low, and few seem to understand the voting system or know who their MEPs are etc. That last election was also weird because the general assumption was that MEPs would barely have time to get their seats warm before the UK Brexited. That won't apply to MPs in a coming general election.

The Peterborough by-election is the only other indicator we've had of actual performance so far under FPTP, and the Brexit Party got squeezed out in a heavily Leave constituency, with most of the candidates saying local issues were more significant on the doorsteps than Brexit, and tactical voting possibly having been a factor.

The 30 or 40 seats total you mention may be feasible if the dice fall favourably for Farage et al., but the party balance and dynamics of a new parliament are likely to be complex. Also, Farage has never won a directly elected seat in all his time on the scene. He's never even come close.

As an MEP, Farage has the luxury of spending the few days he's in the European Parliament as a pure troublemaker, hobnobbing with Holocaust deniers etc., appearing on BBC Question Time, getting pissed and ripping the system off. That wouldn't apply if he did manage to squeak a seat in the UK Parliament - he'd actually have to start delivering something beyond Brexit, and before we even got to that stage, his party would have to thrash out a manifesto, or at least some sort of agreed platform beyond Brexit. Given his stances on many issues and the weird grab-bag of members and candidates the Brexit Party's had so far, not only would that process likely be divisive, the offer to voters would likely not have broad appeal.

Johnson may have support within the Tories (though some polls have seen his standing slipping), but he's not at all a popular choice among the general public. His main advantage is the weakness of the opposition, but it's not clear that will be enough to put him in No. 10.

I'm not trying to hold out faint hope, but doomsaying plays into the bastards' hands.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. While that's possible, I think they'll also hurt the Tories in many constituencies

Since the Peterborough by-election, it's pretty much been a 4 way tie between Con, Lab, Lib Dem and Brexit:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

Looking at the details of the most recent:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qqv5xpbu20/TheTimes_190625_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

we see that the Lib Dems are doing well enough in the South of England to start taking Tory seats when their vote is split by Brexit. Labour still has a lead in the North; they should be able to hold on to any university city there, and while they may lose some seats, they may take some there too thanks to the Tory/Brexit split. The SNP should clean up in Scotland with the opposition fragmented.

If there's either an unofficial pact between Labour and the Lib Dems, by putting their efforts into the regions they are strongest in, or their voters produce the same effect with significant tactical voting, they may do OK. The Tories and Farage have the chance to do the same, but I reckon Farage's ego is too much to organise that, and it's hard for voters to work out what is tactical with one party not having stood in a constituency before.