Snap election speculation mounts as No 10 calls emergency cabinet

[Eugene]

Source: The Guardian

Snap election speculation mounts as No 10 calls emergency cabinet

No 10 says vote on bill to delay Brexit will be treated as ‘expression of confidence’

Peter Walker and Jessica Elgot
Mon 2 Sep 2019 15.09 BST First published on Mon 2 Sep 2019 12.51 BST

Speculation is mounting that Boris Johnson could call a snap general election if backbench rebels succeed in passing a bill to delay Brexit, with a Downing Street source saying the issue would be treated as “an expression of confidence” in the government.

Johnson’s cabinet ministers are being summoned for an emergency cabinet meeting on Monday afternoon, before the prime minister addresses Conservative MPs at a No 10 drinks reception.

Senior sources among the cross-party group of rebels say they believe Johnson could seek a snap general election as early as Wednesday, asking for the two-thirds majority needed in the Commons under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

The sources suggested the vote would come with a commitment that polling day would be before 31 October, though the date would ultimately be in the control of the government.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/02/brexit-no-10-boris-johnson-ignore-legislation-block-no-deal

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Related:
• Election speculation mounts in Britain on eve of 'last chance' Brexit battle (Reuters)
• Get rid of PM's 'populist cabal', Labour's Corbyn backs new UK election (Reuters)
• Tony Blair warns UK Labour: Don't fall into election 'elephant trap' (Reuters)

[3Hotdogs]

1. All-in-all, what a shit-show.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Johnson plans 14 October general election, according to government source

The prime minister will ask MPs to back a general election for 14 October should a cross-party rebel alliance vote to take control of parliament tomorrow, according to a government source.

Boris Johnson is set to treat a vote by opposition MPs to take control of the legislative agenda as an effective confidence vote.

A government motion is set to be tabled by the government for a snap general election if rebels are successful in passing a motion to take control of the order paper.

There would then be a vote on Wednesday on a new general election under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which requires a two-thirds majority.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/02/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-threatening-to-deselect-tory-rebels-to-provoke-early-election-claims-gauke-live-news?page=with:block-5d6d5be78f08b61c80d95805#block-5d6d5be78f08b61c80d95805

This would be 3 days before the last EU leaders' meeting - whether a coalition could be formed in that time is unclear - you'd have to hope the EU leaders would be willing to give extra time if needed. See https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/02/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-threatening-to-deselect-tory-rebels-to-provoke-early-election-claims-gauke-live-news?page=with:block-5d6d62dd8f0812d9e0267ae6#block-5d6d62dd8f0812d9e0267ae6

[Denzil_DC]

3. It would be quite ironic if Johnson failed to win his seat.

From 18 August 2018:

Why have Boris Johnson's constituents changed their minds on Brexit?

In February 2016, the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip infamously typed out two newspaper columns, one declaring support for remaining in the European Union, one for leaving. A truth that MP is keen to perpetuate and the public vaguely content to indulge is that the moment the Leave column and not the Remain one was copied, pasted and emailed in to his editors at the Daily Telegraph comment desk was the moment that changed history.

Whether the great question Boris Johnson toyed with from above his laptop screen that day concerned the nation’s best interests or his own is a matter of some disagreement. But at the premature end of a stint as the worst foreign secretary in the country’s history, it would nevertheless still appear that Brexit has turned out to be in Mr Johnson’s interests. He remains favourite to succeed Theresa May as prime minister, after all.

But curiously, his constituents, having allied their interests with his own on the 23 June 2016 appear to have had a change of heart. Uxbridge and South Ruislip is one of 112 constituencies that, according to new research, has changed its mind on Brexit. Having backed Leave on 23 June 2016 by a narrow margin, it has now swung back in favour of Remain, albeit not by much. According to focaldata, Mr Johnson’s constituency was once 57.9 per cent in favour of leaving the European Union. Now is it 51.3 per cent in favour of remaining.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-ruislip-a8495926.html

From 20 July:

Boris Johnson Could Become The First PM To Lose His Seat. This Is How.

When Boris Johnson was looking for a constituency to be parachuted into at the end of his tenure as London mayor, the west London seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip suited him very nicely.

The well-to-do town at the end of the Metropolitan line was widely regarded as true blue territory and it wasn’t too far from either Westminster or Islington where he lived at the time. But as Johnson prepares to become prime minister, concerns are mounting in the party that he might not actually be a shoo-in to hold the seat at the next general election.
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That poll could come sooner than anticipated if he presses ahead with a no-deal Brexit against the wishes of most MPs. Speculation is swirling in Westminster of a no confidence motion being tabled within weeks of him taking office, or Johnson calling an election himself in the autumn amid deadlock in parliament.

Meanwhile rival parties in Uxbridge are circling. Momentum, the pro-Jeremy Corbyn campaign group, is holding an “Unseat Boris” event in the town on Sunday, where hundreds of activists are expected to knock on doors for the Labour candidate, Ali Milani. Labour is confident it can win over enough disgruntled voters to wrestle the seat away from Johnson, not least because his majority was halved at the last snap election in 2017.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/boris-johnson-uxbridge

From 24 July:

“We’ll just see even less of him here”: Could Boris Johnson lose his seat?
In Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the new Tory leader has the smallest constituency majority of any prime minister since 1924.

...

In 2017, Johnson’s majority more than halved to 5,034. He is now the prime minister with the lowest local majority since 1924, when Labour PM Ramsay MacDonald held Aberavon by 2,100 votes.

The Tory think tank Onward identified Uxbridge & South Ruislip as a “vulnerable” seat in an April report because of the young to old ratio tipping ever further from the Conservatives’ favour.

Now in Tory/Labour marginal territory, it’s a target seat for London Labour. Johnson’s Labour rival in the seat, a 25-year-old called Ali Milani (who I’ve interviewed in this week’s issue of the New Statesman), shows me the latest polling on his phone.

It’s a national ComRes poll from May extrapolated to show the Tories coming third in the seat, behind the Brexit Party.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/we-ll-just-see-even-less-him-here-could-boris-johnson-lose-his-seat

[Gumboot]

4. That would be the sweetest irony ever...

I think we could all get behind Ali Milani for that seat.

Go Ali! Dump the chump!