BREAKING: BBC exit poll...BoJo 368 majority. GE OPEN THREAD

[Soph0571]

Labour 191 seats
Con 368
SNP 55
LibDem 13

FUCKING HELL

We are screwed if this is right...
Brexit in 3...2...1..

EDIT: Headline for Open Thread

[OnDoutside]

1. I concur, that's shocking.

[Soph0571]

3. Sooo getting my Irish passport!

Even if it tightens slightly he has definitely got a big majority.

[OnDoutside]

9. My sister works for the Irish passport service and they were flooded with enquiries after

the 2016 vote.... tomorrow will be as busy !

[Soph0571]

12. Seriously, I come from a traditional Unionist family

And I know that myself, my twin and her husband were waiting to see what was about to happen. This has made up many minds I think North of the border, especially with the wet border that is about to happen.

[OnDoutside]

19. No harm to have both, as you are entitled to.

[Turbineguy]

2. Let's hope they got the same pollsters

as the ones who assured us that Hillary Clinton won.

[Soph0571]

4. BBC are normally reasonably accurate

The Tory's have won and Labours arse has been kicked.. unless something has gone drastically wrong.

[Turbineguy]

10. I understand they have promised

the food ration books will have a blue cover. Very attractive.

[Soph0571]

13. Heh

[VarryOn]

54. Polls seem to be losing accuracy with each big election...

It wouldnt surprise me at all that coming next November we find there's a Democratic tsunami come election day.

I've been called twice in last 6 weeks by pollsters. I didnt give my true choice in either case. Ithink I'm far from the only one being coy with pollsters.

[RandySF]

5. And Corbyn ran on health care

Just sayin’...

[Soph0571]

6. Yeah he did. But this was a Brexit Eelection....

IMO - the same type in America in the rust belt that switched from Trump to Clinton are the same ones who have switched from Corbyn to Johnson.

[OnDoutside]

22. Yes, those decades of dumbing down education and news has

Got millions of people voting against their best interests.

[2naSalit]

7. How secure is the voting system?

If this is for real, my condolences.

[Soph0571]

8. This is for real

They are predicting an 86 seat majority. The only good thing is that with such a large majority he can block the real brexit nutters that want a no deal.
Of course this might change and drop a bit. But based on this exit poll, Labour is locked out for a decade at least and Brexit is happening. I am too old for this shit.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. Pretty secure - this is paper ballot voting

and the exit polls are for people who voted in person (if there is insecurity in the British system, it's in how people obtain postal votes - this has been used to rig one or two local votes, where people who have access to a block of flats have managed to register fake people there, or people have handled others' postal votes (I have a vague feeling a rule change has made that last one harder to do) - but doing that on a scale to change a whole constituency, let alone a national result, without getting caught, doesn't look possible).

[2naSalit]

16. Thanks.

I admit that I have little knowledge beyond rudimentary understanding of the governing system there.

[Denzil_DC]

11. If it does pan out as predicted, it's a poison chalice.

No more excuses, nobody else to blame. Johnson has to make it work. The unravelling of Brexit over the next year and beyond are all his to own.

Meanwhile, the threats to the Human Rights Act and all sorts of other concerns worry me even more.

[Soph0571]

15. The only comfort is that he could block of the ERG no brexit bollocks

With that level of a majority
We are screwed Denzil

[Denzil_DC]

20. I'm still going to wait for the actual results.

More out of principle than false hope, but otherwise we might as well shutter the polling places at 10pm, never bother counting, and the tellers could have an early night!

If the exits are right, it would mean the much-vaunted MRP poll prediction models will have been a load of old bollocks. In recent decades, the exits are rarely far out, but this was shaping up to be an exceptional election on the ground, so we'll see.

Yes, your suggestion could be a crumb of comfort. It depends, I guess, on whether no deal is actually Johnson's preferred outcome (or what his handlers' aims are). That's if he's even been paying enough attention to form a clear preference.

[Soph0571]

23. Andrew Marr just made a good point...

If he has broken the red wall as suggested then he may have to go softer into the New Year, because those seats expect a different kind of politics.

Seeing it through the night...

[Denzil_DC]

31. Well, if all this is true, the majority in those seats have bought into Johnson's nonsense,

so I can't see why he couldn't spin them along for as long as he wanted.

I'll be in and out through the night. I'm still hoping for a few Portillo moments to make things a bit more bearable. It would be a hoot if Johnson lost his seat ...

[Soph0571]

33. It looks like Jo might be losing hers...

[Denzil_DC]

36. That wouldn't surprise me at all.

She didn't attend hustings, had to ship in an English MP to run her campaign because the local Lib Dems were short of feet on the ground, and the assumption seemed to be that she didn't need to campaign locally because of all the national exposure she'd get. That worked out well ...

[BooScout]

17. I hate to say this...

But Labour brought this on themselves if this poll is correct. They should have dumped Corbyn when they had the chance.

Labour has blown every single chance they've had to do anything about Brexit. It hasn't helped that Russia has trod all over god knows what and it's estimated that what? 88% of Tory political adverts were bald-faced lies. At this point, there is no point.

[VarryOn]

55. I agree...they turned their leadership election..

To their nutjobs, who certainly dont think anything about appealing to the wider electorate. Hopefully, today wakes the grownups up.

[geardaddy]

18. Ugh.

So sorry to hear this.

[muriel_volestrangler]

21. I wonder if Jo Swinson will lose her seat

55 out of 59 seats for the SNP in Scotland leaves only the safest seats for other parties - probably (in depth analysis from the Sun of all places - https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5058213/general-election-scotland-predictions-seats-snp-tories-labour-lib-dem/

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Con hold (odds were 1/6)
Edinburgh South (Lab hold 1/6)
Orkney and Shetland (Lib Dem hold 1/16)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Con hold 1/3)

Now marginal:
Dumfries and Galloway Con hold (2/5)
Swinson in East Dunbartonshire (Lib Dem hold 2/5)
Edinburgh West (Lib Dem hold 2/5)
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Lab hold 4/9)

[Soph0571]

24. That will be one of the more interesting calls of the night

Also in the coming months how Nicola Sturgeon will take on Boris...

[muriel_volestrangler]

28. The Guardian is catching up with us

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/12/general-election-2019-uk-live-labour-tories-corbyn-boris-johnson-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-5df2c1458f08b5e670043029#block-5df2c1458f08b5e670043029

[Soph0571]

30. Bloody hell

If only the same was predicted to happen to Boris!

[Denzil_DC]

35. Of that lot, I'd particularly love Dumfries and Galloway to go SNP (or anyone else).

Last edited Fri Dec 13, 2019, 12:20 AM - Edit history (1)

Alistair Jack has been a horror as Scottish Secretary (not that they don't have a full bench of reserves of horrors, of course).

[Denzil_DC]

78. Ugh. Alistair Jack holds Dumfries & Galloway.

Currently Scottish Secretary, a very wealthy landowner, and a stereotypical posh Tory thug.

[Mike 03]

25. I'm really sorry. This is incredibly disastrous.

[Soph0571]

26. I actually am sitting here with a knot in my stomach on this.

I cannot fathom how bad this is about to get.

[Soph0571]

27. They are predicting that Corbym will have a worse defeat than Micheal Foot.

Labour could not have got this more wrong

[AlexSFCA]

29. this is a preview of our 2020 election

just like brexit vote in 2016 was a clear trend. It would not surprise me if not only dt wins but we lose the house and they retain gop senate majority. Think for a moment how many judges they’ll be able to replace. USA will become the Federalist Society. We see what’s happening with impeachement, house will impeach but mcturtle will swiftly move to acquit in record time, clearing dt of all charges. We should expect 4x the interference compared to 2016. True dark times are ahead.

[hedda_foil]

44. I wish I didn't agree with you, Alex. But I do.

[mwooldri]

50. It is a warning sign, that's for sure.

The UK and the USA are drifting leftwards. Boris's Tories have figured this out and have gone somewhat to the left (running on Blairite policies except Brexit of course), though I don't trust them. Since this is the UK group and not DU Primaries all I'll say is that a hard shift left needs to be viewed with extreme caution.

[StrictlyRockers]

32. Doh!

But my man, Corbyn! He byn shanked by the RW Brit media.

[Afromania]

34. Good lord, what the hell is going on?

[RelativelyJones]

37. People do not like Corbyn and don't trust him. So much so that many voted for a buffoon.

[Soph0571]

38. Nick Cohen on Jess Phillips...

Link to tweet

Oh please let this be a thing.
It wont be though. Momentum would never allow it

[Mike 03]

39. Jess Phillips is extremely impressive.

Link to tweet

Is Owen Smith well liked? I thought he made a marvelous shadow secretary.

[Soph0571]

41. She kicks arse

It could happen, the one story of this election is that Labour went to far left and Jess is Centre Left. Also it is about time Labour had a female leader of the party. Corbyn will have to go after this.

[Denzil_DC]

40. I've no idea why Cohen thinks Phillips might be a winner.

She's practically pre-demonized.

[Soph0571]

42. Maybe they will see the light... move back to centre Left and vote in a woman

One could hope

[Denzil_DC]

43. There are a few others in and around the Labour front bench I could see

as better options with potentially wider appeal, and Phillips is too abrasive to be an effective party leader in what will be an even more riven party, IMO.

Whoever it is, they'll be demonized. See Miliband, see Brown ... Stuff that appears not to stick to Tory bigwigs sticks to Labour politicians for some reason.

[Soph0571]

45. Maybe abrasive is what they need right now

They have 5 years to turn this shit around. Of course she will be demonised. It is what our right wing media does, but I am personally not enamoured with any of the front bench options. Also, they sat there and nodded as this disaster was unfolding and either fully embraced it or did not stand up and say no it. Heh

[Mike 03]

48. Do you like Alison McGovern at all?

She's another MP that often blows me away. Just curious. (I don't know UK politics that well, just love to watch Parliament)

[Denzil_DC]

51. Maybe. I've always found her too scattershot, and she has a bad reputation as a team player,

even with other female MPs.

Anyway, it won't be my battle to fight. It looks like we're going to have our hands quite full enough full north of the border ...

First actual results being declared.

Chi Onwurah holds her seat in Newcastle upon Tyne Central.

Bridget Phillipson holds Houghton and Sunderland South.

Two Labour holds.

[Soph0571]

60. Blythe Valley to the Tory's

Might as well go to bed now... it is all over for Labour

[Denzil_DC]

61. I'll be staying up for the bulk of the Scottish results.

The exit polls are actually extrapolated from about 120 UK-wide seats. Relatively few of them are in Scotland, so John Curtice is warning the Scottish projections may not be reliable (cue cries of "Failure!" if the SNP only net in the 40s).

I'd say there's still scope for upsets to the current bleak UK national picture, but then I've a tendency to remain doggedly optimistic until the results drive reality home.

[Soph0571]

63. Workington went Tory

Bloody hell

[Denzil_DC]

66. ...

Link to tweet

Nigel Farage ✔
@Nigel_Farage

A personal congratulations to Mark Jenkinson for winning Workington tonight. He was an excellent UKIP candidate in 2015.

[Soph0571]

67. Fucking hell

Just that.

[Polybius]

76. Many here complained about Tony Blair being too conservative

I was one of them, but I was wrong. Moderates like Bill Clinton win elections. Corbyn was too far to the left to win.

[Mike 03]

46. Puke Alert: BBC World Service interviewing Farage.

He's saying the next phase of Brexit will be "even more difficult than the one before."

Johnson will be emboldened by this victory.

I really want to cry for the Brits tonight. This really and truly sucks.

[Soph0571]

49. Now brexit is gone he is going to start the 'reform' party

He is a shyster

[mwooldri]

47. Unhappy but not surprised.

Michael Foot clone or somewhat likable buffoon with Thatcherite qualities.

Goodbye EU, goodbye NHS... It's been nice knowing ya...

[Soph0571]

52. I wrote an article about this being 1983 all over again

[Soph0571]

53. The Tory's have taken Blythe Valley

This whole world is topsy turvey

Held by Labour since 1950

[lunasun]

57. They say whole areas have turned . Sunderland reduced

I was looking at Al Jazeera reporting updates

Kevin Craig is a Labour Party activist and donor. "I'm flabbergasted," he told Al Jazeera.

"Earlier today the feedback I was getting was that we had done surprisingly well - we'd rallied in the Midlands, we'd rallied in the east, the Labour party was running out of the campaign balls used to go door-knocking in several regions... But anything like the numbers in the exit poll are hugely bad news, and it does go back to Brexit for me."

Northern Ireland has been thrown into uncertainty, while the Labour vote appears to have collapsed in the Midlands and the north," Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, has told Al Jazeera.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/191212204233994.html
Scotland vote alone is something 😳

[Kitchari]

56. These results are terrible

Just terrible

[cilla4progress]

58. People tend towards authoritarianism

in uncertain times.

See Germany 1930s.

[kimbutgar]

59. I'm glad I went to GB when it was sane

[Soph0571]

62. This is the 2nd referendum and we have lost

[T_i_B]

83. I think a major part of this....

.... Is dislike of Labour in general and Corbyn in particular.

Labour has failed to engage with voters at a time when people are feeling less and less associated with the Labour tribe. Round where I live the party reverted to nostalgia for the coal mining era at a time when the pits have been shut for decades and people have moved on from the Miners Strike.

The results in South Yorkshire and North Midlands are horrendous and the main feature of that is a collapse in the Labour vote.

[BigmanPigman]

64. Oh shit!

I hope this isn't an omen of things to come in the US.

[Soph0571]

65. The democrats need to learn the lessons from this

Look at what Corbyn did and do the opposite... heh

[Soph0571]

68. Nigel Dodds has been given the boot in North Belfast

Hehe

[Denzil_DC]

69. Zac Goldsmith loses to the Lib Dems in Richmond Park.

Some consolation for them on a disastrous night.

[Soph0571]

70. Caroline Flint out in Don Valley

Tory's have never held this seat

[T_i_B]

80. By the end she was a hardcore Brexiteer

Fat lot of good that did her.

Labour's issues round here go much deeper than the project to leave the EU. Starting with a failure to engage.

[Denzil_DC]

71. Jo Swinson loses her seat.

That's 27 out of 30 wins for the SNP on the results declared so far, with increased majorities in the holds, even what were close marginals. The Tory vote's sort of holding up, but swamped by turnout (and perhaps some ex-Labour tactical voting). So far, the Tories have held two seats (Moray, and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk), the Lib Dems have gained one from the SNP (East Fife, where the previous majority was 2).

(I think I'll use this as a Scottish results sub-thread as it's probably of marginal interest versus the carnage elsewhere UK-wide tonight. Some of our further-flung/island constituencies won't declare till tomorrow anyway.)

[Soph0571]

73. posted at the same time on this

shit or good from your point of view

[Denzil_DC]

75. SNP partisanship aside, I think it's no secret I never rated Swinson.

I also think the Lib Dems have a better chance of regrouping under new leadership (if she'd held her seat, I suspect she'd have tried to hang on.)

Amy Callaghan, who won, has an interesting back story and I think she'll be a good MP. And at least it's another young woman in parliament.

[Denzil_DC]

77. SNP now up to 35 seats out of 38 declared, so 50+ doesn't seem to be out of the question.

Joanna Cherry, so influential in the Brexit court cases is one of those who held her seat.

Neale Hanvey won Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, defeating Labour's Shadow Scottish Secretary Leslie Laird (who's no great loss to anybody). Hanvey was actually suspended by the SNP a couple of weeks before the election after allegations of retweeting an antisemitic tweet some time ago and had no official party support or backing, so the situation was rather confusing. He was on the ballot as an SNP candidate because it was too late for officialdom to make any changes. Some in the opposing parties in that seat tried to claim on the doorstep that this meant he couldn't be elected. We'll have to wait and see how the SNP's disciplinary proceedings pan out once the dust's settled.

[T_i_B]

82. I think she would have been forced out if she held her seat

Although I thought a lot of the criticism of her was unfair she clearly didn't come over well at all to a lot of voters.

[Denzil_DC]

84. Maybe. I heard noises before she lost her seat that they might stick with her for the long haul.

She was certainly polarizing.

Her main downfall was strategy, I think, with a high degree of hubris. She came in on the Lib Dem Euro election surge and a by-election win, and took that as a sign she herself was a winner.

And her worst personal strategic failing was being an absentee MP in her own constituency. Amy Callaghan worked really, really hard for that seat. Swinson couldn't even be bothered to turn up for hustings - daft, as she could have made a UK national media splash of that and killed two birds with one stone.

[T_i_B]

87. No point in just saying "we are the party of remain"

You have to explain why supporting membership of the EU is the right thing to do.

[Denzil_DC]

88. Considering this has been billed as "The Brexit Election", the level of debate has been appalling.

The result would be a teeny bit more palatable if it felt like the electorate as a mass - and even many of the politicians - now understood the issues better.

As it is, "Get Brexit Done" - the single most blatant lie of a promise of all the campaigns - prevailed.

But as I said earlier elsewhere, Johnson now owns this and all the failures that result from it, all the promised anti-austerity measures that will no doubt evaporate, and the ill feeling that will no doubt grow among those who voted Tory anew as his project unravels over the next few years.

Now, having guzzled a quarter bottle of port, I think it's finally time for bed.

[T_i_B]

89. Very true

Lack of understanding of the issues was a major problem in the 2016 referendum. And that starts with the politicians themselves.

The Conservatives have been elected on a false platform, as they aren't going to be able to resolve this issue. But they were able to tap into the public's fatigue on the issue of the disastrous project to leave the EU.

I just want politicians on all sides to forget about all the willy waving rubbish and concentrate on getting the basics right.

[Ghost Dog]

94. It's not about debate, it's all about propaganda.

It is therefore not even representative democracy any more.

[Denzil_DC]

79. Unsurprising Labour hold in Edinburgh South by Ian Murray.

If he ends up being Scotland's only Labour MP, it'll be for the second time in his career. He managed to attract a coalition of voters from other parties, and that's held up tonight.

He's staunchly anti-Corbyn and anti-Brexit.

[Denzil_DC]

86. Final tally in Scotland:

SNP 48
Tories 6
Lib Dems 4
Labour 1

[Soph0571]

72. Jo Swinson is out by a whisker

By 149 votes
Shit

[MarcA]

74. Apparently Scotland and much of Northern Ireland is sending the UK

a message: You leave EU, then we leave you.

[Ghost Dog]

95. Already I hear Scottish separatist voices advocating

use of violence, á la irlandaise, should the UK government deny the right to hold a proper, binding independence referendum.

Please note that there are few grounds for direct comparison with the Catalan case. Catalonia has for a thousand years been a region of the Spanish and precursor kingdoms. The Kingdom of Scotland entered into a voluntary union by Treaty with England and Wales, not so long ago.

Ireland was for many hundreds of years an occupied, exploited and oppressed colony. She set herself free.

[T_i_B]

81. I now have a Tory MP again

Labour ran a poor campaign locally and their vote has collapsed.

I don't think much to the incoming MP Miriam Cates, although I did note some people referring to her as "Boris's girlfriend" or even worse still mistaking her for Jennifer Accuri!

[T_i_B]

85. Labour retain Sheffield Hallam

Hugely disappointing. Labour absolutely did not deserve to retain the seat after Jared O'Mara.

It says something though that Labour targeted Sheffield Hallam heavily and chose not to put any significant effort into seats locally where they were up against the Tories. It's as though they are more interested in opposing the Liberal Democrats than the Tories.

[T_i_B]

90. The Beast of Bolsover is no more

Dennis Skinner has lost his seat.

[Denzil_DC]

91. I heard he was too ill to campaign, which won't have helped.

He insisted on running, though. His stance on Brexit can't have been much of a factor in his defeat, I'd have thought.

[T_i_B]

92. It's not the only issue

I've been saying for some time that Labour has major problems in areas like Bolsover. Not just strong anti EU sentiment but also demographic changes (Bolsover itself is becoming something of a retirement town) and a few issues with Labour themselves.

[Pachamama]

93. Sadly, the harbinger of much bad coming Britain's way

[muriel_volestrangler]

96. Tories held Winchester - majority down from 10,000 to 1,000

The Greens stood down to help the Lib Dems, but it wasn't quite enough. With 27,445 votes, the losing Lib Dem, Paula Ferguson, probably got more votes than anyone else who lost in the country (turnout 77.9%).

[Soph0571]

97. Full list of all the MPs who have lost their seats

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_who_lost_their_seat_in_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

[Soph0571]

98. No way back for defecting MPs as all 11 fail in bid to win re-election

Each of the MPs who defected from Labour or the Conservatives this year has failed to be re-elected.

Most of the 11 politicians - all ardent Remainers - who quit the two main parties in 2019 were beaten by substantial margins.

The closest any came to re-entering the House of Commons under a different banner was Chuka Umunna, one of the original six Labour MPs who quit to form The Independent Group in February.

Standing for the Liberal Democrats, he came second in Cities of London and Westminster - having previously represented Streatham - 3,953 behind the Conservative victor.

[link:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/13/no-way-back-defecting-mps-11-fail-bid-win-re-election/|]

Not surprising...