Covid deaths in England and Wales are 70% higher than the "in hospital with positive test" count

[muriel_volestrangler]

The ONS statistics for registered deaths are now available up to the week ending 27th March, from here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales (latest spreasheet - "Covid-19 E&W Comparisons" sheet)

Of those who had died by 27th March (and had been registered by the 1st April), the figure announced daily, of those in hospital who had tested positive, was 964; the total for all deaths for which Covid-19 is cited by the certifying doctor (which will often be in conjunction with something else was 1639. A logarithmic plot:



The vaguely good news is that the red curve shows it's not quite going up truly exponentially, but it's still going up fast.

The bad news is that this means the estimate from Public Health England for week 14, ending 3rd April, is about 5000 excess deaths in the week - see https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/878916/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_15_2020_report.pdf , and the figure 1 graph near the bottom.

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. And once the data is processed, it was 6,000 extra deaths

Coronavirus has pushed the death toll in England and Wales to its highest level since official weekly statistics began 15 years ago, with fatalities running at almost 40% above the average.

The Office for National Statistics said that in the week to 3 April, 16,387 people died in England and Wales, an increase of 5,246 deaths compared with the previous week and 6,082 more than the five-year average.

“The deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005,” said Nick Stripe, head of health analysis and life events at the ONS.

The figures also showed the increasing impact of Covid-19 on mortality in England and Wales, with 22% of all deaths relating to the disease in the week ending 3 April compared with 5% in the week ending 27 March.

In London, nearly half of deaths registered involved Covid-19 and the West Midlands also recorded one of the highest proportions of Covid-19 deaths, accounting for 22.1% of all deaths in the region.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-pushes-england-death-rate-to-highest-level-ever

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Week ending 10th April: 8,000 excess deaths

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020

Total deaths registered by place of occurrence between Week 11 (when first COVID-19 deaths were registered) and Week 15, the number of deaths in care homes has doubled by 2,456 deaths (99.4% increase); whilst we have seen a 72.4% increase (3,603 deaths) in hospitals, and 51.1% increase in private homes (1,392 deaths).

Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 15, 83.9% (8,673 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in care homes, private homes and hospices.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. Week ending 17th April: estimated 14000 excess deaths

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/880812/Weekly_report_mortality_w17.pdf

graph at bottom of page. Exact figures should be available next Tuesday.

That's about 29,000 excess deaths in all, up to 17th April.