Predictions thread for the soon-to-be-coming Labour leadership campaign

[Ken Burch]

Looks like Miliband will have to stand down after tonight's disaster.

Who is most likely to succeed him, and which wing of the party is that person likely to be associated with?

[Warpy]

1. It would be nice if Labour got back to its roots

and completely repudiated all the Third Way nonsense. They didn't, so they lost.

However, they, like the Democrats, won't do that until and unless there is a compelling reason to do so.

ETA: friends in the UK say they're just grateful not to be living under a UKIP landslide and government.

[Ken Burch]

2. I'v heard reports that Nigel Farage is behind in the constituency he's standing in(Thanet South)

A Farage defeat would be the only possible good news of this evening.

[LeftishBrit]

5. Yes, he lost. As did Mark Reckless.

[Ironing Man]

3. Dan Jarvis

there's plenty of shiny young things in the labour party, but they are either contaminated by the last 10 years of failure of the Labour party, or are just the never-had-a-proper-job lobby fodder the public holds in utter contempt.

Dan Jarvis however is a fairly new MP, but before that he was a Major (Company Cammander) on the Parachute Regiment. fought in Iraq and Afghanistan. he's a deeply hard, scary man with the 'gravitas' that the PPE generation avoid completely. thoughtful, clever bloke, comes across well.

[T_i_B]

4. NOOOOOOOO!

Too much of a Blairite, and lacks experience. Jarvis would be a singularly bad choice.

Ed Balls is too associated with the failings of Brown and Miliband. The British media would have a field day attacking him and he wouldn't be able to turn things around.

Chukka Umuna doesn't stand out for me, and the less said about Tristan Hunt and Rachel Reeves the better.

The name that stands out for me is Andy Burnham. He's been an effective opposition spokesman. The trouble is, his Blairite record in office has to count against him.

[LeftishBrit]

6. I do like Ed Balls, but there is the minor matter that he has just lost his seat

And you are right about the media attacking him!

Burnham might be the best of the likely possibilities; at least he is associated with the fight for the NHS.

[Ken Burch]

9. Balls probably destroyed Labour's chances by insisting the party stand

on a program of "fewer cuts" rather than no cuts, in the social wage.

Blurring the differences was never going to work, and it essentially killed Labour in Scotland.

[LeftishBrit]

7. Jarvis is not really in the running; he hasn't even served one full term yet

Only elected in 2011. And most people don't even know who he is.

[T_i_B]

19. Jarvis has ruled himself out

Which I believe to be the wisest course of action for him under the circumstances.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11596303/Dan-Jarvis-rules-himself-out-of-Labour-leadership-race.html

Dan Jarvis, the former Parachute Regiment officer who was urged to run for the leadership of the Labour Party, has ruled himself out of the contest.

Mr Jarvis, the MP for Barnsley who was hailed as a potential “clean skin” candidate untainted by the New Labour era, said he wanted to put his family first.

The former Major has three children, and recently remarried following the death of his first wife from cancer in 2011.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. Can they co-opt Caroline Lucas?

Last edited Fri May 8, 2015, 07:58 AM - Edit history (1)

No? Damn.

Well before the election, the bookies had Yvette Cooper as the favourite to be the next leader; which makes as good sense as anything. Andy Burnham, already mentioned, is a reasonable choice - I think he was quite good in the latter half of the last parliament; I guess Alan Johnson would say he's gone past the point of it being feasible. Umunna would have the idea of 'you can trust me with the economy', I suppose.

Looking at the odds now, it's Ummuna and Burnham neck and neck, with Cooper not far behind. Jarvis is next, but I literally have not heard of him from the by-election until now, and I don't think that is really a recommendation.

[Ken Burch]

10. Aren't Umunna, Burnham and Cooper all basically Blairites?

Why on earth would Labour stay with what just failed?

[T_i_B]

11. About the only possible non-Blairite is John Cruddas

But I don't see him becoming leader

[The King of Prussia]

18. Very much this

otherwise I look round in despair for someone suitable. Which I suppose is partly why we lost.

[LeftishBrit]

12. Oh, fuck it all, invite Nicola Sturgeon to be Labour leader

She'd fight harder for the basic principles than any leader in decades; and it might be the one way to prevent the UK from splitting up altogether.

(I am very sleep deprived and depressed and my brain is working in strange ways.)

[non sociopath skin]

13. It will probably be Andy Burnham

... though I'd much prefer Alan Johnson myself.

Watch out for an "orange book"-type movement from some of the younger right-wingers.

The Skin

[Ironing Man]

14. andy burnham?

really?

every time he stands up the tories can just chant the word 'Stafford' at him and he'll be utterly dead in the water.

Andy Burnham firstly has all the blairite, PFI implementing hisytory and in-office incompetance you could hope for, and then as shadow health secretary he repeatedly displays a lack of grasp of detail that would make Kaiser Willhem II look attentive.

it seems a bit odd to praise Burnham for not being Blairite when he was signing PFI deals and gagging clauses while Jarvis was killing the Taliban in the desert.

its also a bit odd to castigate Blairism when Blairism won three elections straight out, while not-blairisms' election winning record is rather less stellar. or catastrophic.

[T_i_B]

15. Blairism also gave us Jim Murphy

Who's Blairite campaign in Scotland was just a teeny bit disastrous.

Labour doesn't just have problems in Middle England. A new approach is clearly required. The best way they can start is by giving more power to the grassroots party instead of dictating so much from central office.

[Denzil_DC]

16. Yup on all counts.

If I could be bothered replying to the post above yours, I'd also ask how many elections Labour's won since Blair "transformed" the party (well, completed in spades the process begun by Kinnock) and left office.

That's his legacy right there.

[Ken Burch]

17. I'm thinking they should allow regional and national Labour parties

(Scotland, Wales, Northern England, the Midlands, London, The Southeast and Southwest, perhaps even Cornwall)to create their own region- or country-specific electoral programs and reconstitute the party itself as a coalition of Labour parties.

This could at least have minimized the disaster in Scotland, which was caused almost entirely by mistakes made(with obedience to those mistakes imposed on Scottish Labour imposed)by the Westminster-based party leadership.

The FIRST step, though, is for Westminster Labour to apologize for campaigning alongside the Tories against Scottish independence. I understand that Labour needed to take a "vote No" position, but they had an obligation to do so by campaigning in Labour terms-that is, by making a left-of-center, positive case against Scottish independence, not just by saying "keep things as they are". It will be decades before Scottish voters forgive Labour for having its leading figures share a podium with Thatcherites in the independence referendum-if they ever forgive Labour for that at all. Celts are known for holding a grudge.

[T_i_B]

20. Liz Kendall to punch UK's last coal miner

Satire, but not that far off the way that the Labour leadership contest seems to be progressing.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/liz-kendall-to-punch-uks-last-coal-miner-2015052298524

LABOUR leadership hopeful Liz Kendall has promised to punch the last surviving British coal miner hard in the face.

The punch, which will take place in front of the media at the site of Woolley Colliery in Barnsley later today, is Kendall’s attempt to outflank her rivals on the right.

Kendall said: “This miner, who lives in a terraced home on benefits and doesn’t even own a car, represents everything that Labour needs to leave behind. It will be my pleasure to deck him.”

Hobbs said: “She’s Labour, so I’m sure it’s for the best.”

[LeftishBrit]

21. Unfortunately that seems to be only a slight exaggeration

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/05/21/liz-kendall-andy-burnham-_n_7352034.html

I had never heard of Liz Kendall until this leadership contest; and I rather wish I had remained in such blissful ignorance.

[T_i_B]

22. That's pretty much my own opinion

Her leadership credentials appear to consist mostly of the media telling us about her leadership credentials which are that other people in the media think she’s a credible candidate for leader.

When I first heard of her I thought she might be a possible future Shadow Health Secretary but no more then that. Now I don't think she's even suitable for that role.

It just go to show how far backward Labour has gone when a Blairite careerist like Andy Burnham is regarded as being too left wing. Being more "Blairite-then-thou" destroyed the Scottish Labour party and it won't work for the rest of the UK.

[T_i_B]

23. Jeremy Corbyn makes it onto the ballot

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33127323

Veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn has won himself a place in the Labour leadership contest after securing enough nominations to get on the ballot. Nominations closed at midday and it was not until the final minutes that the Islington North MP met the threshold.

Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall are all in the running, having passed the threshold some days ago.

Mary Creagh, Labour's shadow environment secretary, who had fewer nominations than any of the other candidates, pulled out of the leadership race on Friday.

[Ken Burch]

24. Good. Always respected him (that's "respect" with a SMALL 'r', Mr. Galloway)

Probably won't win, but at least there will be someone challenging the "We deviated from the truth of BlairJuche Thought" narrative.

[T_i_B]

25. Probably won't win, but could still do well

Mainly due to the other candidates being so poor if I'm honest.