Is Cameron in serious trouble over his taxes, or will this blow over ?

[steve2470]

Sincere question by an Anglophile Yank. Thank you kindly in advance.

Steve

[oldandhappy]

1. He came out so quickly with the information.

No denial. I am betting he will be OK. AND I do not know! We have to wait and see. I have been wondering about it. He seemed honest in his statements. Putin claims the whole thing is an American plot against Russia. So there we are!

[T_i_B]

2. In all honesty

Win or lose in the EU referendum (and I desperately hope that we do vote to remain in) I don't see Cameron lasting too long after that.

[non sociopath skin]

3. I think the current political situation here is so very volatile that it's hard to predict ...

... what will finally bring Cameron down.

The fact that most of the Media is Right-Wing often makes it difficult to see the wood for the trees.

The Skin

[LeftishBrit]

4. My feeling is that it could make the difference if there were an election right now, but probably

won't cause him to resign.

I doubt that he did anything illegal. Immoral, no doubt; but from my point of view most of the Tory platform is immoral anyway. As someone was saying on Radio 4, there are two aspects to the Panama Papers: tax avoidance, and money- laundering. Do the very rich avoid taxes where possible? - do those of the ursine species excrete superfluous waste in arboreal environments?! When Cameron et al are squeezing poor people and public services and going ferociously after real and imagined benefit cheats, there is something revolting about his trying to withhold as much as possible from his own government. Though it may well also be that he's just as lazy and inattentive in his own personal life as he is in government, and allowed his father and then his accountants to do everything, without his really checking. But all probably within the law.

The money-laundering is much more serious from a legal point of view, but Cameron does not seem to be linked to that. Interesting that there do seem to be trails leading to many of dear Putin's pals...

I think that the outcome and handling of the referendum will probably have more influence on whether Cameron goes soon (he had already indicated, long before this, that he will not lead the party into the 2020 election). Internal Tory fighting over Europe helped to bring Major down, and could well do the same for Cameron. Also, there is an increasing number of party rebellions over various government policies, and with a parliamentary majority of 12, such divisions matter. And domestic policy is mostly being run by Osborne, and Osborne is STUPID. If Labour could stop their own internal squabbling for long enough to take political advantage of the Tory internal squabbling, they could possibly even bring the Tories down before the next election: alas, I don't think that's extremely likely to happen.

Cameron, who is not very fond of the actual hard work of leadership as opposed to its more glamorous side, could quite possibly decide to resign early, even if not pushed, if the internal problems of his party become too much of a headache.

[Denzil_DC]

5. It didn't cause that much of a fuss when it was first reported in 2012:

David Cameron's inherited family wealth 'based in foreign tax havens'

The Prime Minister’s father, Ian Cameron, profited from a legal network of offshore investment funds based in countries including Panama and Switzerland, it was claimed.

Ian Cameron died in 2010 and left £2.7 million in his will. David Cameron inherited £300,000.

The report, published in the Guardian, comes amid growing political attacks on methods of tax avoidance.

Ministers including George Osborne, the Chancellor, have suggested that some means of tax avoidance, while legal, are morally dubious.

Politicians including Mr Cameron have also suggested that they are willing to disclose information about their own financial affairs.

However, none have said they are willing to publish information about their wider family wealth.

...

No 10 sources suggested that the Guardian newspaper had set out to prove that the Prime Minister had personally benefited from offshore wealth but had failed to do so.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/9218119/David-Camerons-inherited-family-wealth-based-in-foreign-tax-havens.html

That last comment from No. 10 was tempting fate, obviously. Here's that Guardian report mentioned above:

Cameron family fortune made in tax havens

David Cameron's father ran a network of offshore investment funds to help build the family fortune that paid for the prime minister's inheritance, the Guardian can reveal.

Though entirely legal, the funds were set up in tax havens such as Panama City and Geneva, and explicitly boasted of their ability to remain outside UK tax jurisdiction.

At the time of his death in late 2010, Ian Cameron left a fortune of £2.74m in his will, from which David Cameron received the sum of £300,000.

...

Ian Cameron took advantage of a new climate of investment after all capital controls were abolished in 1979, making it legal to take any sum of money out of the country without it being taxed or controlled by the UK government.

Not long after the change, brought in by Margaret Thatcher after her first month in power, Ian Cameron began setting up and directing investment funds in tax havens around the world.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/apr/20/cameron-family-tax-havens

So thanks again, Maggie.

A friend of mine who worked very high up in HMRC at the time said there was an enormous whooshing sound after that first month of Thatcher's reign as capital fled abroad.

[mwooldri]

6. It'll blow over.

It'll cement the opinion that people have of him in one way or another, and those who have no real opinion will see him as a politician and take his actions as being the same as all politicians in general.

Besides when Bill Clinton was saying "I did not have sexual relations with that woman..." the Tories were actually having all kinds of sexual relations with one another that would make Bill look more like Pope Francis in comparison. Every so often the tabloids exposed some sex scandal, and that Tory minister would resign. It only came out a fews years after Tony Blair came into office that John Major was having a long term affair during his time as Prime Minister. Unlike Bill, he didn't get caught.

[Ironing Man]

7. ...

I think it will blow over - two reasons, firstly that there are much bigger issues going on, EU referendum, trident replacement etc.. and secondly that if Cameron paid all the relevant taxes on the money when he repatriated the money - before he became PM - then he's done nothing wrong either legally or morally.

It's also, in truth, not that much money - its £30k - to pretty much anyone who owns their own home, or has a pension 30k is peanuts. Had it been ten times that then it would play into the whole disconnect thing, but 30k is almost a bit embarrassingly naff when it comes to the idea of great wedges of tax free cash stuffed in dodgy banks...

[Bad Dog]

8. He's damaged but will definitely remain in power until the referendum.

There may will be a challenge after that, but his challenger, most likely Boris, will be as much a tax dodger as him.