NC District 8 is flippable

[IndivisibleCLT]

Scott Huffman - Navy Veteran, Community Activist Grassroots Organizer of Indivisible Charlotte and small business owner is running for North Carolina Congressional District 8. We can #FlipDistrict8 and we need financial help to do so. Special Interests groups are flooding the district to keep it in their hands. Koch Brothers, NRA, Big Oil.

We can do this. Thank you so much for your support.

http://bit.ly/Flipthe8th

[FBaggins]

1. Are the lines for the 8th being redrawn?

I thought that the incumbent won the 8th by almost 18 points last year.

[Tiggeroshii]

3. Trump won AL by 30 points last year

Somehow that didn't quite matter

[FBaggins]

4. The non-incumbent Republican candidate appeared to be a molester

That doesn't appear to be the case in the mentioned house race, does it?

I can't find the 8th on a "competitive races" list. The NC 2nd, 3rd, 9th, and 13th are all listed as "Likely R" on at least one list (Cook, Sabato, etc.)... but nothing in NC was anywhere closer to toss-up than that.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. It doesnt need to be

The constituents are what make it competitive, not cook or sabato

[FBaggins]

9. Cook/Sabato/InsideElections/etc... are the experts at reading the constituents.

They all have the race rated at Safe/Solid R. We can't just declare the race to be "flappable" without some evidence

[Tiggeroshii]

11. Cook and sabato are broad. The minute and relevant details require more analysis and understanding

Of the districts. There is a reason why there were dozens of "Solid R" seats that flipped or came within a percent for dems in 2008 and 2006 and dozens of "solid D " seats that flipped for republicans in 2012. Because given a wave election, seats like what the OP is talking about do get flipped if the right investment was made to it before the election. And you don't want to be those democrats that see a race with no commercial investment put into it, come within .5% of winning a seat that had absolutely no effort put into it. The reality is given the right environment every single seat is flippable if the ground game is put in place, and often it is the ground game and investment that folks like sabato and cook use to decide if it is flippable or not.

[FBaggins]

10. My apologies.

I just realized that this thread was you throwing your hat in the ring.

I wish you the best of luck. We absolutely should have candidates in all of these races in case things move further our way.

Go get 'em!

[IndivisibleCLT]

7. 2016 Election

Thomas Mills who ran against Hudson only lost by 8Pt's. This is an off election year. Anti-Trump sentiment is fueling a blue wave.

[FBaggins]

8. Mills lost by 59-41, not eight points.

This is an off election year

Which doesn't help, it adds to the difficulty (because turnout is much lower and that tends to favor red candidates). In 2014, he won by almost 30 points.

[Tiggeroshii]

13. In off year elections, low turnout actually favors the opposition party

Since the presidents party's voters are in power already and dont see a need to turn out as much as the opposing party.

Check out turnout in 2010 and 2006. The turnout is super low because the president's party is not turning out.

[Tiggeroshii]

12. Exactly.

Its absurd to say we shouldnt try tobcompete in every every district in a year we know will likely be favorable to us.

[saidsimplesimon]

2. CLT, thank you

Yes, we Can do this. Thank you and all those activists who work tirelessly for our Republic. Nothing would please me more than to send a resounding Alabama FU to the Koch Brothers, et al (may their words bite them from behind).

[IndivisibleCLT]

6. Gerrymandering

District 8 is gerrymandered down to the street level. My home town of Spencer is split down my old neighborhood. My old street is District 13 Ted Budd.