BTRTN Election Prediction: When a Split Verdict in VA and NJ (Bad Enough) is Really a Double Loss
"This is an “off off year” election, meaning, as in all odd-numbered years, there are no congressional elections (apart, perhaps, from special elections caused by death or resignation) and no presidential election. But there are gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey that are critical on many levels.
There has been a decade-plus-long trend toward the nationalization of local elections, amply evidenced by the decline of “ticket splitting,” that is, voting for different parties in different races in the same election cycle. That means that off-cycle elections such as these two can serve as barometers of national trends. And certainly these two elections will serve as a referendum on Joe Biden’s brief presidency, no matter how hard the Democrats try to lash their Republican challengers to Donald Trump.
As such, political observers will be watching two sets of numbers – not only who wins, but also how the margin compares to Biden’s margin of victory in the two states in last year’s election. The expected decline will give a rough gauge of how far the country has shifted from blue to red, given Biden’s well-documented troubles."
Read on....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/11/btrtn-election-prediction-when-split.html
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