Democrats need to gain as many US Senate seats this year in order to offset losses in 2024.

[nkpolitics1212]

2022- There are no Trump state Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022. There are 2 Biden state Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022. PA(OPEN Toomey-R) and WI(Johnson-R) Democrats are likely to pick up PA(Fetterman-D) and WI(Barnes-D). Democrats will end up with 52 seats allowing us to ignore Sinema-AZ and Manchin-WV.
2024- There are 3 Trump state Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024. MT(Tester-D),OH(Brown-D) and WV(Manchin-D). Tester and Brown will be saved by high turnout with the Democratic base. If Democrats want to replace Sinema with a Democrat, They have better chance with Kate Gallego-D. The current mayor of Phoenix and Ruben’s ex-wife. AZ will still have a female Democratic US Senator. Democratic will lose 1 seat.
2026- The battleground US Senate seats are going to be in
GA-Ossoff-D if Kemp gets re-elected in 2022 and runs for the US Senate in 2026.
ME-Collins-R if Collins retires and/or Golden is the Democratic nominee.
NC-Tillis-R if Jeff Jackson runs.

[TwilightZone]

1. You think Manchin will lose in 2024?

There's not a lot of evidence of that. As of late April, his approval rating was 57% overall and 69% with Republicans. It's up significantly this year.

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/25/joe-manchins-approach-paying-off/