Ughh, Barnes (D) was neck-and-neck a few days ago (U.S. Senate, WI, running against Ron Johnson)

[progree]

Barnes was neck and neck a few days ago in 538, but now it is 56-44 in simulations favoring Johnson, 3 most recent polls are for Johnson, 9/18 920 AM ET visit,
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/wisconsin/

Edit: I'm no 538 methodology expert, but this isn't the same as the odds of winning ... the most recent polls (all favoring Johnson unfortunately) are Johnson +4, Johnson +1, Johnson +1. Following a string of polls favoring Barnes ( +2, +7, +4, +2)

========================================


538 Still shows this the closest of the Senate races.
Scroll half way down the page to the table
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo


There's a DU link to contribute:   https://secure.actblue.com/donate/duforbarnes22

[GreenWave]

1. Sounds like cherrypicking after negative ad bombardment

[progree]

3. I think 538 uses the same model for all the races, and it's been one of the two closest Senate races

since I've been following it at 538 (just 3 weeks), what am I missing? Thanks

[jimfields33]

5. Incumbents are hard as hell to get rid of.

It happens but not as much as we’d like. Hopefully this will be a win for us.I’m not 100 percent sure of Wisconsin voting habits.

[Lovie777]

2. Nope . . ...

majority of the polling outfits are run by Republicans.

Now if Barnes wins, Johnson will claim voter fraud.

[Raven123]

4. That's a huge lead. Don't get demoralized Wisconsin. VOTE!

[padfun]

6. That's a one point lead.

The 56-44 is percentage of winning, not how many are voting for him. This is a normal percentage when a lead is one point, say 51-49.

In sports, a 56-44 percentage is almost a toss-up.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. It's still neck and neck- 56/44 are the odds, not the polling average. Nt

[mucifer]

8. I think we are naive when we believe they can't

Win independents and moderate republicans with hate.
The immigration issue now is soooo ugly and the “criminal city violence “ crap they are spewing also works. I wish it didn’t.

[LakeArenal]

10. Marc Pocan and Tammy Baldwin are gay, Barnes is a black Lt Gov.

Yes indeed we can. Thanks.

[PortTack]

11. Thx LakeArenal....

The polling is a mystery..why he would start out so strong and suffer this reversal. Didn’t the same happen when Russ Feingold ran?

[LakeArenal]

12. Russia interfered in Feingold election.

Ron Johnson is a Russian asshat.

Koch boys started buying WI government before any other State.

We warned the US that they would come for them too but lots of people liked to claim, “WI got what it voted for.” Did we?

When we tried the recall against Walker the DNC gave us nothing. While Walker was highly funded.

The hatred of Hillary was a major goal of Republicans. It worked.

[PortTack]

13. Again ...thx for the informed post about WI politics!