A question about the Election (Trump Alert)

[PeterGM]

Hello DU,

I wanted to ask all of you if you've seen articles or have any knowledge on the following topic:

Leaving aside the Hill vs Bern debate for now, i'd like to talk general election numbers and Trump's odds against any democrat.
The most common wisdom is that Trump can't win because of Dems. but has anyone seen any figures on how many Trump supporters are new voters?
I ask this because looking at the 2012 election, the turnout wa 54.9 %.
Now let's get to a series of questions that popped up in my mind:
1) Would people who voted for Romney also vote for Trump?
2) How many new voters can he turn out?
3) How many that voted for Obama would vote for a Democrat again?
4) How many new voters can the Dems turn out?

Looking at the Demographics of the US:
pulled from Wikipedia

308745538 (100%) Total
223553265 (72.41%) White alone (Non-Hispanic White 196,817,552 63.7 %)
38929319 (12.61%) Black alone
28116441 (9.11%) Mixed and/or Some Other Race
14674252 (4.75%) Asian alone
2932248 (0.95%) Either American Indian or Alaska Native
540013 (0.17%) Either Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander

Here's a look at the Dems from 2012 election:

RACE
White
72 % Tot
39 % (D)
59 % (R)
African-American
13 % Tot
93 % (D)
6 % (R)
Hispanic
10 % Tot
71 % (D)
27 % (R)
Asian
3 % Tot
73 % (D)
26 % (R)
Other
2 % Tot
58 % (D)
38 % (R)
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

In general I would say that Whites are slightly over represented at the 2012 election (which should be no surprise since they're the only ethnicity with 2 parties that represent them)

but this is what scares the pants off me.
The white male vote... It is wide spread acknowledged that this Dem cannot win an election, let's do some math:
Assuming the exact same turnout for the other ethnicities as in 2012, what % of the White male population do you have to get to win an election ? (I know it's not realistic that anyone gets 100% of a dem to turnout and MUCH LESS get all of their votes, but it would be unrealistic to assume that Trump would only get the WMV (White Male Vote))

U.S. WMV = 63.7 % / 2 = 31.85 %
(I forgot to count the WMV Obama got so i'll subtract those) 39% * 45% (percentage of males who voted for Obama, I know it's not precise since it's of all groups, but I'm assuming it's close enough in each Dem... I can't see why the gender ratio should be much different between demographics) * 51% (Obama's vote share) * 54.9% (Turnout) = 4.91%

That means the WMV left that didn't vote for Obama = 31.85 - 4.91 = 26.94 % (of total population)
I'll assume both with Trump getting the same non white votes and the white female vote as Romney and without him getting any non white votes nor women:
With non whites:
Democrats (Just what Obama got) = 51% * 54.9 % = 28% (So we can already see that Trump can't Win with just the WMV that didn't vote for Obama)
Republican non white vote and female = (1 - 52 % * 59% (The WMV that Romney got)) * 47% (Romney vote) * 54.9% = 17.9 % of total population.

What % of the WMV does it take to win then?

(28 - 17.9) / 26.944 = 37.5 % of the REMAINING WMV... This is what made me crap my pants, because I couldn't see much reason why Trump won't get the same non male white vote that Romney got... And in case he does lose some, there's definitely a LOT of leg stretching room to win with the WMV...

Any thoughts?

P.S. I want to add in how many extra WMV Trump needs to win compared to Romney:
WMV that didn't participate in 2012: 31.85 - 54.9% * 47% * 52 % * 59% (The WMV that Romney got)) - 4.91% (WMV Obama) = 19 % of tot population.
WMV that didn't vote that need to Turn out for Trump to win: 54.9 % * (51-47) % / 19 % = 11.6 % of the WMV that didn't vote in 2012.... just 1 out of 9 is necessary....

[PeterGM]

1. Sorry for the rush...

I apologize for any mistakes or sloppy assumptions, but I was in a rush to write it and might have made a few errors...

[JustAnotherGen]

2. Don't know the answers to all of the questions

But I had 3 white male Republicans in my home on Sunday and they are switching from Romney to voting against Trump.

Their spouses - 2 Democratic women and one Republican woman. The Republican woman is switching too.

We are heavily involved in local and state politics in NJ. This is an extremely red district.

All five Republicans will be voting for David Larsen in an attempt to oust Leonard Lance from his R-House Seat next month.

I'm not sure of what someone say - in Sunbright TN would do. They most likely have a different set of values than white guys in Horse Country NJ. I would think if they were Ron Paul supporters they will be voting for Trump.

[PeterGM]

3. Thanks for the input :)

And you're definitely right that it isn't realistic to assume that all of Romney's supporters would vote for Trump (Which I guess is also true for the Obama voters for democrats...)

[blm]

4. Why do you assume that? Obama's voters still love him for the most part.

Not the same thing, at all. Wonder why YOU think it will be.

[PeterGM]

5. Two parts:

Last edited Wed May 18, 2016, 03:33 PM - Edit history (1)

Firstly, I'd agree that probably more republicans would jump ship than dems, but "for the most part." kinda answers that I didn't say how many of those who voted for Obama in 2012 wouldn't vote for democrats in 2016, there are some, the question is just how many (probably very few),
secondly: I don't doubt they like Obama but they also might not vote for the new democratic candidate (Either Clinton or Sanders) because they don't like that candidate (I know these numbers are most likely to be very small, but I have not seen any polls, so I can't say anything with certainty, other than anecdotes* i've heard...

[blm]

6. The number of Romney voters hating Trump would be significantly higher.

Obama's voters will follow his lead and see the urgency of preserving gains made, especially after the disastrous reign of Bush.

I don't think much of what you offered as a reason. I think you sound more wistful than thoughtful.

[PeterGM]

7. let's hope... I've probably just lost too much hope in humanity.... nt

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. White men and women are the issue. Neither group has voted in plurality for the Democratic

presidential nominee since 1992.

We need to encourage more single and progressive white women, especially, to join the coalition of blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Jewish and Arab Americans and other groups. Married white women appear to vote as their husbands do, but that changed somewhat in 2008; went back to where it was in 2012. With HRC on the ticket, I think we can get both single and married white women into the fold.

Democrats win when they form these cross-racial and ethnic coalitions.

[PeterGM]

9. That would be great :) let's hope /nt

[DemonGoddess]

11. I know a fair few

white men and women who WON'T vote for Trump that are R, and have actually told me they will vote for Clinton.

Me, being a Democrat anyway, my vote is a no-brainer!

[Yonnie3]

12. Have you seen this?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

It starts with the 2012 demographic data and you can change turnout and R vs. D ratios

In fiddling with this it seems relatively small changes in a demographic's turnout can make big changes in outcome.

It isn't really what you asked for, but it's all I've got.

[pnwmom]

13. Why would you assume the same turnout as in 2012? n/t