New PA Polls show Clinton leading by +15(NBCnews/WSJ/Marist) and +8(CBSnews)

[SaschaHM]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-clinton-hold-strong-leads-pennsylvania-new-poll-shows-n560606



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-party-front-runners-lead-in-pennsylvania-indiana/


PA better get ready to move to the Deep South!

[IamMab]

1. Anyone know which polling company was most accurate in NY? nt

[SaschaHM]

3. Just going off of RCP...

Emerson and the NBC/WSJ/Marist were the closest to the 16 point spread at 15 and 17 respectively.

[Cha]

2. Hope the Dem Party in PA "Disappoints" Exponentially!

Mahalo, Sascha~

[CrowCityDem]

4. Tuesday has five more reasons Bernie needs to drop out of the race.

[SaschaHM]

5. And 5 more reasons why his super delegate strategy is bunk.

He is running out of diverse states where he can improve his margin among African Americans enough to have any cover if he tries to throw out their votes. You can't go into the convention having lost the AA vote by 30-50% in each state and expect to get the democratic nomination by throwing that vote out.

[pandr32]

6. After Tuesday Sanders will fail to be relevant

The press is already moving on the the Republican debacle--more interesting. At this point Sanders is hurting his own legacy--best to bow out with grace, but it is already too late for that--he doubled down on his BS attacks. If he continues he will not be able to hold his head up very high in his return to the Senate. Those who did not endorse him will know they were right about him all along, so he won't have gained any support out of his failed bid. He will be richer, though.

[stopbush]

7. Hillary has trailed only once in this race, and by only 4 delegates: after NH.

Since NV, she has had the lead and has never looked back.

That fact doesn't get mentioned often enough.

[SaschaHM]

10. The media needs their horse race for ratings ...

and the Sander's campaign needs it for money.

Notice how neither the Sanders campaign or the media has parroted their BS about "momentum" this week.

[stopbush]

11. And notice how the MSM hasn't talked in terms

of Hillary having momentum.

Still shilling for Sanders.

[BlueMTexpat]

8. My fingers are staying

VERY crossed until Tuesday is over. I very much want this to be true.

[stopbush]

9. Compared to the uncertainty of many of these earlier contests

you've gotta feel good about the polling for Tuesday.

Sanders needs a miracle to happen across the board or he's even toastier than he was after NY.

[FrenchieCat]

12. As long as Hillary voters show up...

All Will be fine! However if they are lulled into believing Hillary's got this, and decide not to show up because it isn't necessary, then we have a problem! Hopefully instead, Hillary voters will want to put more Sanders' bid to bed.

[book_worm]

13. Some stats from the NBC poll:

Clinton leads among African Americans (67 percent to 29 percent), those ages 45 and older (66 percent to 28 percent), women (62 percent to 34 percent), self-identified Democrats (60 percent to 36 percent) and those strongly supporting a candidate (59 percent to 41 percent).

Sanders holds the edge among those who are under 45 (60 percent to 37 percent), those who are "very liberal" (58 percent to 41 percent), independents (55 percent to 39 percent) and men (49 percent to 45 percent).

And per the CBS Poll:

This points to a closer race than in neighboring New York, where Clinton won by 16 points, but her underlying strengths with certain groups remain. While Sanders wins “very liberal” voters by 25 points, Clinton wins other liberals and moderates, who make up the majority of the state’s likely Democratic voters. Clinton also maintains a 30-point edge among non-white voters and significant advantages among key groups like older voters and women. Like the New York primary, Pennsylvania is a "closed primary", meaning only voters registered with the Democratic Party can participate in the Democratic primary election. This benefits Clinton, who does poorly with independent voters.

[SharonClark]

14. Good information. Thanks for sharing.

[SaschaHM]

15. Hillary is holding a rally on Tuesday Night in PA!

That must mean they are expecting some good results from their internal polls! Bernie, on the other hand, will be in WV.

[Treant]

16. Usually for PA

Take NY and subtract 5 points for something like this.

So I'd expect, off the cuff, Clinton +10.8% to be five points under the +15.8 result in NY.

That...actually doesn't feel right. There's very little energy on the Sanders side in this particular area, although I expect he does well in some parts of Philly and State College.

PA might surprise on Tuesday with better than expected results, but I'd idly be looking at the +10 or so as normal right now.