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Fri Apr 29, 2016, 10:58 AM

Indiana Primary and History

Clinton did win Indiana 38-34 in 2008. The reason why I expect(ed) Indiana to go Sanders is because we have an open primary. But, Hillary has won more open primaries than Sanders.

Recent poll from 538 shows average of 48.8 - 41 favoring Clinton.

Indiana's polling hours are 6am to 6pm. That might be a factor too.


ANOTHER bit of information. Indiana only had 72 delegates in 2008. But because of the formula that the DNC uses to determine delegate allocation Indiana will have 83 delegates this year. In 2012 they had 96 delegates. The reason for the fluctuation is due to voter turnout for a Democratic candidate over a 3 election cycle.

Below shows the allocation of delegates in this election and the past 3. Allocation of delegates by Democratic voter turnout during those years is also at the congressional district level. This reflects how a weighting factor may give a state with comparable population a different delegate count.

Obama won Indiana in the 2008 general election which is the reason for the jump in delegates in 2012.

District * 2004 * 2008 * 2012 * 2016
CD1 -- - -- 6 -- -- 6 -- -- 10 -- -- 8
CD2 -- - -- 5 -- -- 6 -- --- 7 -- -- 6
CD3 -- - -- 4 -- -- 4 -- --- 6 -- -- 5
CD4 -- - -- 4 -- -- 4 -- --- 6 -- -- 5
CD5 -- - -- 4 -- -- 4 -- --- 6 -- -- 7
CD6 -- - -- 5 -- -- 5 -- --- 6 -- -- 5
CD7 -- - -- 5 -- -- 6 -- --- 8 -- -- 8
CD8 -- - -- 5 -- -- 6 -- --- 7 -- -- 6
CD9 -- - -- 5 -- -- 6 -- --- 7 -- -- 6
AtLarge -- 15 --- 16 ----- 11 -- -- 9
PLEO --- -- 9 -- -- 9 -- -- 22 -- - 18
Delegates -67 --- 72 -- -- 96 -- - 83

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply Indiana Primary and History (Original post)
LiberalFighter Apr 2016 OP
Renew Deal Apr 2016 #1
DemonGoddess Apr 2016 #2
LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #3
DemonGoddess Apr 2016 #4
LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #5
DemonGoddess Apr 2016 #6
radical noodle Apr 2016 #7
DemonGoddess Apr 2016 #8
radical noodle Apr 2016 #10
LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #11
sufrommich Apr 2016 #9
LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #12
LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #13
sufrommich Apr 2016 #14

Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 11:04 AM

1. After 6pm is Hillary and Trump's best hours.

So I wonder if it will cut down their vote.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 11:05 AM

2. sooo

if I'm reading it right, the split will be proportional in the Congressional Districts too? Or are those winner take all?

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Response to DemonGoddess (Reply #2)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 11:24 AM

3. ALL Democratic Primaries are all proportional at each level.

The At Large and PLEO are determined separately using state results.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #3)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 11:53 AM

4. that's what I thought

wanted to be sure

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Response to DemonGoddess (Reply #4)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:12 PM

5. The Republicans divy up the delegates in different ways.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #5)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:13 PM

6. yep they do

some states though, even though it's proportional, it sure does get confusing!

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Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:35 PM

7. I lived all my life in Indiana until 2012

so I know a lot of people there, Democrats and Republicans. Of my Democratic friends and relatives, many will do strategic voting. Most assume now that Hillary has the nomination locked up so they're deciding which of the Republicans to vote for (or against, actually). Some would have voted for Hillary, some for Sanders, so it could really mess things up if a lot of folks do this.



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Response to radical noodle (Reply #7)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:43 PM

8. I'm trying to convert R women that I know to vote for Hillary

and a couple of the more moderate men as well

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Response to DemonGoddess (Reply #8)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 01:02 PM

10. So am I

with moderate success!

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Response to radical noodle (Reply #7)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 01:17 PM

11. I noticed that happening with some voters in the 2012 election

With strong D's voting in the Republican Primary. That was the Murdock election for Senate on the Republican side. It possibly helped get Donnelly elected in the Senate.

I wasn't even aware of any campaign to do that.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:50 PM

9. 538 has an interesting article about Indiana's "weirdness".

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/indiana-is-weird/



It's got some idiosyncrasies that make it hard to predict,it's not your typical Midwestern state,it's got a strong southern influences.

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Response to sufrommich (Reply #9)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 01:35 PM

12. Yes, that is predominantly down in southern Indiana.

Really anything just south of Indy.

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Response to sufrommich (Reply #9)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 01:41 PM

13. Indiana's first state capital was in Corydon down in southern Indiana.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #13)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 01:48 PM

14. There's huge sections of my home state of Michigan

that are what this article calls "southern settled".Specifically the towns in the western suburbs the grew around auto factories where I grew up.They were originally peopled by workers coming up from the south to work in the relatively high paying factories . It sounds like Indiana may be the same but on a bigger scale.

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