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Fri Apr 29, 2016, 11:11 AM

 

A Sanders Comeback Would Be Unprecedented ~ 538 (HRC GROUP)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-sanders-comeback-would-be-unprecedented/

Dear democratic socialists, political revolutionaries, Bern-feelers at large: We need to have a talk.

Let me begin by saying that I bear no ill will towards Mr. Sanders. Nothing that follows should be misconstrued as an attack on his policies, his track record, his electability in November or his character. Iím not a corporate media crony, or a plant from a pro-Hillary Clinton super PAC. Iím just a guy who believes in the predictive power of cold, hard data.

And the unsexy truth is that, barring some catastrophic news event, Sanders will not win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. In fact, most past candidates in Sandersís position dropped out long before this point in the race, and those who stayed in made little pretense of winning. (The Sanders campaign, which announced Wednesday it was laying off a ton of staff, may be recognizing this.)

Historically speaking, Democratic primary races do not have many twists and turns. Rather, the eventual winner tends to take an early lead ó on or before Super Tuesday ó and stay there. Runner-ups can kick for a while, but they tend to concede the race by February or early March.

As it stands, Sanders is firmly in runner-up territory. He is losing 9 million to 12 million among those who have already voted, and polls show him lagging by an average of 8.8 percentage points in the states yet to vote1. Sanders has gained substantially in national polls but is still the less popular candidate (outside of the Bernietopia that is social media2).



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Reply A Sanders Comeback Would Be Unprecedented ~ 538 (HRC GROUP) (Original post)
Her Sister Apr 2016 OP
DemonGoddess Apr 2016 #1
Her Sister Apr 2016 #2
sharp_stick Apr 2016 #3
workinclasszero Apr 2016 #4
fleabiscuit Apr 2016 #5
Tarheel_Dem Apr 2016 #6

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 11:14 AM

1. I read that

yesterday!

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Response to DemonGoddess (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 11:16 AM

2. cool! I missed it!

 

Hey there!!

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 11:24 AM

3. That's exactly why they

now post bullshit from Brietbart, Newsmax and every other nutjob site on Earth praying for an indictment. It's the only thing still floating on their ocean of tears.

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Response to sharp_stick (Reply #3)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:04 PM

4. Thats right

 

Hillary won so now the bros decend into right wing fever swamps for their anti Hillary ammo

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Response to sharp_stick (Reply #3)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:16 PM

5. Some might say displaying "the emotional stability of a bag of rats in a burning meth lab." eom

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Fri Apr 29, 2016, 12:52 PM

6. Milo might want to be careful. Some are threatening to cut out the tongues of elected officials.

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