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Sun May 1, 2016, 11:40 AM

Based on the most recent Indiana poll. (50-46)

Using proportional application of delegates at each level it would be HC: 45 - BS: 38.
--
Using proportional application on total delegates it would be HC: 43 - BS: 40.
The 50 - 46 poll equates to a 52% - 48% equivalence.

Hillary will get between 43 and 45 delegates out of 83.
Sanders will get between 38 and 40 delegates.

Including only Pledged Delegates [Majority is 2,026]:
Hillary -: [1,665 + 45] 1,710 - - Need: 316 -- Advantage: 302 Delegates
Sanders: [1,370 + 38] 1,408 - - Need: 618

Pledged Delegates remaining: 933

Including Automatic Delegates [Majority is 2,383]:
Hillary -: [PD 1,710 + AD 489] 2,199 - - Need: 184 -- Advantage: 750 Delegates
Sanders: [PD 1,408 + AD 41 ] 1,449 - - Need: 934

Total Delegates remaining: PD 933 + AD 183 = 1,116
Percent Needed:
-- Hillary -: 16.5%
-- Sanders: 83.7%

Using Convoluted Majority Method *
Percent of Pledged Delegates needed to reach the Convoluted Majority:
-- Hillary -: 72.1%
-- Sanders: 104.5%


* Convoluted Majority Method involves using the majority of both Pledged Delegates (4,051) and Automatic Delegates (714) which totals 4,765. But requiring only Pledged Delegates to reach that majority.


Indiana has 9 congressional districts. There are two with 8 delegates, one with 7 delegate, three with 6 delegates, and three with 5 delegates.

Unless there is a 12.5% spread in the votes for districts with 8 delegates it is likely to split 4-4. CD1 is in the Lake County area (near Chicago) and CD7 is in Indianapolis. I think at least one of them will split in Hillary's favor. But instead of a 2 delegate advantage as it was in 2008 it will be a 3 delegate advantage.

The spread in the votes for districts with 6 delegates would need to be 16.6% otherwise the split would be 3-3. The districts are the 2nd, 8th, and 9th. The 8th and 9th would likely be the best for Sanders. But Clinton won the popular vote in all three of the districts in 2008 with the 8th and 9th by wide margins enough to get a two delegate advantage in both of them.

Districts with only 5 delegates will likely split 3-2. Clinton won CD4 and CD 6 in 2008 with Obama winning CD3. If Sanders has a chance of winning one it would be in the 3rd. Basing that only on Fort Wayne as a major city and with IPFW. But I don't think IPFW has the same draw as other universities for Sanders.

CD5 with 7 delegates has a chance of going Sanders with UAW members. But retirees could possibly pull it out for Clinton. Retirees outnumber actives by a considerable margin.

Obama won the following counties: Allen, Boone, Elkhart, Hamilton, Lake, Marion, Monroe, St Joseph, Tippecanoe. There are 92 counties in Indiana.

2008 Primary Recap
Clinton's advantage by districts were CD6 3-2, CD8 4-2, CD9 4-2.
Obama's advantage by districts were CD7 4-2.
The At Large delegates split 8-8 and the PLEO delegates split 5-4 for Clinton.

Total results were Clinton: 38 - Obama: 34
Popular votes were Clinton: 646,282 - Obama: 632,073


7 replies, 1508 views

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Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply Based on the most recent Indiana poll. (50-46) (Original post)
LiberalFighter May 2016 OP
IamMab May 2016 #1
DemonGoddess May 2016 #2
Jitter65 May 2016 #3
LiberalFighter May 2016 #4
bluestateguy May 2016 #5
LiberalFighter May 2016 #7
DemonGoddess May 2016 #6

Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:46 AM

1. LOL, I love the application of the *Convoluted Majority. By his own supporters' rules BS needs 104%!

 

That's gotta bern!

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Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 12:13 PM

2. convoluted majority! bwahahahaha

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Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 12:32 PM

3. Thanks for this. But the pundits already gave IN to Bernie. what did i miss? nt

 

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Response to Jitter65 (Reply #3)

Sun May 1, 2016, 12:57 PM

4. Which pundits?

538 has Clinton 92 probability of winning.

538 Indiana

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Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 03:08 PM

5. This coming week is finals week at IU

Could that depress turnout in Bloomington? That would be bad for Bernie. College kids aren't so good at multitasking.

http://enrollmentbulletin.indiana.edu/pages/finexpol.php?Term=2

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #5)

Sun May 1, 2016, 03:47 PM

7. It appears that Purdue, IPFW and IUPUI all have exams during the week.

There will be plenty of them packing to leave, drinking, as well as studying and taking exams.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 03:11 PM

6. This is finals week for many of 'em

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