Closed primaries are hurting Bernie Sanders. But they're not why he's losing.

[Cha]

Bernie Sanders is right: Closed primaries, which exclude independent voters, are hurting him at the voting booth, according to a new analysis.

But just how much better would Bernie be doing if every state primary let independents vote? Luckily, Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz agreed to run the numbers for us using a model he's built for Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Controlling for other variables, Abramowitz found that closed primaries did penalize Sanders — by roughly 4.7 points. (The flip side of this, naturally, is that Hillary Clinton does about 4.7 better in closed primaries than in open ones, according to Abramowitz.)

How Abramowitz calculated Bernie Sanders's closed primary penalty

So far this year, self-described independents make up 7.5 percentage points more of the primary electorate in open primaries than they do in closed primaries. Abramowitz then multiplied that number by what his model found as the effect of the partisan composition of the electorate — giving him the 4.7 point figure.

So what does this mean for the Democratic primary?

But it wouldn't meaningfully change the outcome of the race. Only six states — New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and Florida — have held closed primaries since the race began.

Add those up, and Sanders would have won 41 more delegates than he currently has. Clinton is currently leading Sanders by 293 delegates (without even counting the superdelegates).

MOre @ the link.. http://www.vox.com/2016/4/28/11528764/closed-primaries-bernie-sanders

https://theobamadiary.com/2016/04/29/chat-away-816/#comments

Jane Sanders is wrong A-gain..

Edward-Isaac Dovere
✔ ??@IsaacDovere
Jane Sanders thinks the Dem primary "would be very different" if independents could vote in it. This is true. Also wouldn't a Dem primary.
12:33 PM - 28 Apr 2016
55 55 Retweets 83 83 likes

Question on The Obama Diary..

amk for obama
April 29, 2016 at 12:49 am

"Q to sanders inc. what made you run on a dem ticket? if the “indies” mattered to you sooooo much... "

https://theobamadiary.com/2016/04/28/president-barack-obama-dont-give-away-your-power/

So BS and the surrogates can stop whining about this, right? Rofl

Oh, and why is sanders "losing"? Let me count the ways..


Donna NoShock ??@NoShock
Boom Shakalaka!!! #MDforHRC
6:47 AM - 26 Apr 2016
45 45 Retweets 42 42 likes

https://theobamadiary.com/2016/04/26/chat-away-814/

Hillary's Group!



​

[applegrove]

1. Rock On Cha!

[Cha]

11. Back@cha, apple!

[Agnosticsherbet]

2. According to Sanders, he ran as a Democrat for the Media Coverage and money

Sanders says he ran as a Democrat for 'media coverage'
Bernie Sanders on Monday told NBC’s Chuck Todd that he ran as a Democrat to get more media coverage.
During a town hall-style event in Columbus, Ohio, the independent Vermont senator said, “In terms of media coverage, you have to run within the Democratic Party.” He then took a dig at MNSBC, telling Todd, the network “would not have me on his program” if he ran as an independent.
Money also played a role in his decision to run as a Democrat, Sanders added.

I hope that cleared that question.

[BootinUp]

3. Crystal.

[2naSalit]

5. Which means he's a party crasher.

And he expected us to just roll over and adore him?

Sorry Bernie, not gonna happen.

[Cha]

14. That's right, Asherbet.. so he can't whine about the Indies now. He'd still be losing anyway.

[SunSeeker]

4. Sanders keeps complaining about the "rigged" Dem delegate system...

...but his Campaign manager, Tad Devine, helped create that system.

[Cha]

17. They don't care how hypocritical they are.. they know their base won't care.. but I want

them to be held accountable for everything they tried to disingenuously push on the American People when this is over.

[DesertRat]

6. Good post. Thanks, Cha!

[Cha]

21. Mahalo DesertRat~

[DesertFlower]

7. he announced in may 2015 that he was running.

his supporters had more than enough time to register to vote.

i personally don't feel sorry for independents. the parties are so different in their idealogy. you choose the one you feel comfortable with and you register with that party.

[Cha]

22. Yes, they just needed to know the rules.. And Hillary would still be winning!

Mahalo, DesertFlower~

[DesertFlower]

27. Mahalo cha.

[Cha]

32. You're Welcome, DF!

[Tommy2Tone]

8. Bernie's Real Problem?

Democrats prefer Hillary.

[Cha]

23. And, they perfer Hillary because she's exponentially a better candidate than BS could ever be.

Mahalo~Tommy

[Tommy2Tone]

26. Yay Cha

You are always right.

[Cha]

33. ..

I wish!

Tommy~

[Surya Gayatri]

9. Keep hammering home this truth, Cha. Your posts help, at least a little,

to counter the prevailing BS narrative of "establishment" rigging against the Bern.

He's losing. Get over it.

[Cha]

24. Mahalo, Surya.. Important Tweet on BS..

Propane Jane ?@docrocktex26 · 55m55 minutes ago

The truly disgusting part about Bernie's contested convention aspirations is how he thinks he's entitled to override the will of POC/women.

https://twitter.com/theonlyadult

[Koinos]

10. Given the weak field of candidates on the Republican side,

... maybe he would have had better luck running as a Republican. He would have gotten media attention and even more support from independents. His anger at the "establishment," of which he has been a part for many years, would have offset some of his more unrealistic goals.

He doesn't seem to be as hostile to Republicans as he is to Democrats. He criticizes the Clintons and Obama more often than he criticizes Bush. He claims he can work with "the other side of the aisle," but he would like to replace sitting Democrats with more progressive candidates. One of his best friends in the Senate is Jim Inhofe: That I simply do not understand.

If he wishes to act like a Democrat, he has to stop attacking Democrats and start attacking Republicans. Otherwise, he looks like a Libertarian or a Naderite.

[Cha]

25. You make good points.. oh well too late again, BS.. DT has the gop all wrapped up.

[Koinos]

42. He could still sign up as VP for Jill Stein and run as a Green.

Nah, his ego wouldn't allow him to do that.

[stonecutter357]

12. K&R!

[Cha]

31. Mahalo, stonecutter!

[Thinkingabout]

13. It is hard to negate the over three million votes, big red huh.

[Cha]

34. It's impossible, Thinking.. and all those delegates and Super dels! poor bernie didn't want

to lose and he's not taking it very well.

No worries.. he'd have made terrible potus.

[Thinkingabout]

37. Yes he is showing his leadership ability.

[Her Sister]

15. Really like the BS Chapter to be over!

and then soon after that will probably like the Trump chapter to be over too!

AHhhhh!

[Cha]

39. Yeah, the anointed ones who want to subvert the will of the People can't be over

soon enough.

And, all the crap he's said against Hillary will not be forgotten.

[ismnotwasm]

16. K&R

[Cha]

40. Mahalo, ism~

[mcar]

18. Not enough votes

Simple and true!

[Cha]

41. Not enough votes and now trying to subvert the Will of the People by annointed bernie

the nominee..

Propane Jane ?@docrocktex26 · 55m55 minutes ago

The truly disgusting part about Bernie's contested convention aspirations is how he thinks he's entitled to override the will of POC/women.

https://twitter.com/theonlyadult

Mahalo, mcar~

[workinclasszero]

19. Good info!

Lets face the facts, eh? Bernie is a LOSER anyway you look at it!

[NurseJackie]

20. I think it will take a little longer for the facts to sink in...

... they've been living in a fantasy world for so long, it's going to be difficult for them to face reality.

I guess the best we can do is to continue to point out the facts and hope that they catch on. Having said that, I'd like to take this opportunity to say once again: Bernie will NOT be the nominee. There will not be a contested convention. There will not be a brokered convention. Hillary will become our party's nominee on the first and only ballot.

[NastyRiffraff]

28. They've just about run out of excuses

Well, maybe the entrails of the wildebeast showed a bad omen.

Hey, Cha, may I steal that last graphic? "Not enough votes"

[BlueMTexpat]

29. Grrreat OP, Cha!!!!

[Jamaal510]

30. K&R

[ucrdem]

35. Bernie might have taken it if Obama hadn't worked a Clinton miracle.

Unfortunately for Bernie, Obama turned the economy around and the Great Depression he was counting on never happened. And once the TPP goes online things will really start to heat up which is why I suspect he ran against TPP.

[ucrdem]

36. p.s. forgot this

and this!



great OP!

[Cha]

38. President Obama's revolution was just too good for bernie.. Obama has a very successful

legacy and his pols have been strong over 50%.. not really helpful for sanders.

Can you imagine someone running on the Dem ticket and against the popular African American President? Well, that's what BS is doing.

I don't get what you're saying about the TPP? It's a good thing, afaic.. I trust the President on this.. he wanted it and I'm glad he got it. sanders has already gotten Pinocchios for fabricating about it.

I never trusted BS in the first place.. a shame so many did.

Thank you, ucr!

[William769]

43. He's losing because he's a loser. nt

[Cha]

45. He's the annointed loser..

Propane Jane ?@docrocktex26 · 55m55 minutes ago

The truly disgusting part about Bernie's contested convention aspirations is how he thinks he's entitled to override the will of POC/women.

https://twitter.com/theonlyadult

[DemonGoddess]

44. OOOOOOO

A reporter is pointing out that he's disenfranchising the millions of voters who've already voted for Hillary, by wanting to impose his will on the SDs

[Cha]

46. Really, on tv, DG?! Wow.. the annointed one is getting called out on his slipperyness?

Propane Jane ?@docrocktex26 · 55m55 minutes ago

The truly disgusting part about Bernie's contested convention aspirations is how he thinks he's entitled to override the will of POC/women.

https://twitter.com/theonlyadult

A reporter is pointing out that he's disenfranchising the millions of voters who've already voted for Hillary, by wanting to impose his will on the SDs

Thank you!

[DemonGoddess]

47. Yep, was Chris whateverhernameis (I don't remember it)

He was NOT happy she was asking him those questions, and brushed her off.

[Cha]

48. Of course he wasn't .. BS doesn't like to be called on his shite..

gawd he's everywhere 24/fucking/7.. will he ever just go and **** ***!?!!!

Chris Jansing? Good on her.. that door is open!

Thank you!

[DemonGoddess]

49. mini and I are now going to vote!

[Cha]

50. Have an historically fun time, D!

[DemonGoddess]

51. Since hubs is a Repubbie?

Guess what? ALL the candidates, no matter when they dropped were still on the ballot. He did not vote for ANY ONE of the 3 active Rs and in fact, had he thought of it, he would've voted for Fiorina just to make a point to the three nutjobs.