What head-to-head election polls tell us about November

[BlueMTexpat]

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/#more-15484

Extremely wonky post from Sam Wang, complete with graphs.

The November outcome should be within 1 SD of current polls approximately two-thirds of the time. Hillary Clinton’s polling margin over Donald Trump is currently +8% (median of 19 pollsters since mid-March) – twice the standard deviation. Based on past years, how likely is it that Trump can catch up? It is possible to convert Clinton’s lead to a probability using the t-distribution*, which can account for outlier events like 1964 and 1980. Using this approach, the probability that Trump can catch up by November is 9%, and the probability that Clinton will remain ahead of Trump is 91%**. This probability doesn’t take into account Electoral College mechanisms. But since the bias of the Electoral College is quite small, it does not make a difference in the calculation.

I should note that the polls have been telling us this information for some time. In the first half of March, Clinton led Trump by a median of 9 percentage points. Using an SD of 4.5 percentage points, her win probability would come out as 93%. So today’s estimate has been knowable for several months.

This is a result that may excite Democrats. However, it is subject to change. For example, the SD increases to about 7% in June, which combined with a lead of Clinton +8% corresponds to an 83% win probability, less certain than today. And of course the polls could change. I don’t know why polls would be less predictive in summer. Maybe general election campaign events drive polls away from where they would naturally go otherwise. Post-convention bounces would be examples of such events.

This estimate is also independent of other factors, such as the state of the economy and Clinton and Trump’s net favorability/unfavorability. Most such factors should already be partially baked into the polls, and therefore might not add much information. Now that polls are predictive, they give us a more direct measure of what will happen in November

These predictions are nothing to be complacent about. But there is also no reason to panic. Slow and steady as has been the rule all along should lead Hillary to the prize.

But oh, there is SUCH a long way still to go, especially when a disgruntled primary candidate threatens a "contested convention." That simply is not going to happen, despite Bernie's threats. He is winning no new friends with these tactics and may even be losing some he had.

[IamMab]

1. Donald and the GOP still have to put together a platform and attempt to run on it.

Already, there are articles out about how the new GOP Congress is on track for the fewest days in session in 60 years.

50 blue states on 11/7, calling it now.

[BlueMTexpat]

2. From your prediction to the

GE election outcome! I LIKE it!