Tonight’s Win Is Not Likely To Help Sanders

[savalez]

The Democratic race remains fundamentally unchanged after tonight’s win by Sanders. Yes, his victory was somewhat surprising, given that all of the polls had Clinton winning and by an average of 7 percentage points. And yes, Sanders has promised to fight on in the primary until perhaps the convention. The problem for the Sanders campaign remains delegate math and demographics.

Right now, Sanders looks like he’ll earn about five to 10 more delegates than Clinton in Indiana. That means Clinton will have an elected delegate lead by the end of the evening of around 280 to 285 delegates. In order to catch Clinton in the elected delegate count, Sanders would need to win over 65 percent of the remaining elected delegates. That’s actually higher than it was before Indiana voted.

Perhaps as importantly, there’s not anything in the Indiana result that should make one think that Sanders has dramatically changed the result.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/indiana-primary-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-20975187

[Cha]

1. Higher than it was before Indiana.. how does that work, savalez?

Right now, Sanders looks like he’ll earn about five to 10 more delegates than Clinton in Indiana. That means Clinton will have an elected delegate lead by the end of the evening of around 280 to 285 delegates. In order to catch Clinton in the elected delegate count, Sanders would need to win over 65 percent of the remaining elected delegates. That’s actually higher than it was before Indiana voted.

Thank you

[savalez]

3. Good question.

I think it's because they both won delegates and there is a finite number left to win. Hopefully one of our resident math whizzes will chime in.

[Cha]

5. Thanks.. yeah, one of those numbers guys!

Yours sounds pretty good though.

[Treant]

15. Savalez is right!

Consider--you and I are in a really simple race with 100 delegates available.

You have 40, I have 30. 30 remain, so to tie, I need 20 (66%) and you only need 10 (33%).

We're in a state race with 10 delegates. I get 6 and you get 4--so I won and I'm closer!

Er, no I'm not. Now only 20 delegates remain, I have 36 and need 14 of them--70%! You only need 6 of the 20, or 30%.

Basically, if you aren't meeting the percentage of what you need on the total remaining in a given contest, you fall further behind.

Since Indiana was fairly large compared to the remaining delegates, it had the potential to shift the race a bit. But since it was close, it didn't.

[Cha]

16. Mahalo for that thoughtful Math lesson, Treant..

So happy Hillary got so close in Indiana even though it's an Open Primary and she spent 0 on Ads.

[Treant]

17. Open Primary,

very white state, no Clinton spending, and he still didn't even meet what demographics would indicate his vote share would be (+7, he got +5).

Guam's coming up on Saturday. Clinton might even earn most of those back from yesterday given that Sanders' operatives have insulted Guam voters on stage.

West Virginia next Tuesday? Demographically, I give Sanders +10 in the state--another technical win, and another case where he slips even further behind in his delegate targets.

And it doesn't get better from there, either.

[Cha]

18. I do hope Guam got wind of BS' surrogate, Tim Robbins, dissing and dismissing them..

Who does that.. to make a stupid, disingenuous point? Somebody with delegates to bern?!

The Trouble with berny is he's set himself up to be so pure and perfect and Hillary to be so evil.. Speeches!

It's all going to come crashing down one day when he finally learns America doesn't believe him.

Yay.

[Iliyah]

2. Oh snap

[SunSeeker]

4. Sanders only has a 5 percentage point win to show for his $1.8+ million ad buy in IN.

Sanders poured money into a state Hillary didn't spend a penny on ads in, and he wins by just 5 points with an overwhelmingly white electorate open primary tailor-made for him.

Even after Sanders nets +5 delegates vs. Hillary tonight, in order to go into the convention with more pledged delegates (ignoring that Clinton will already have more total delegates to lock the nomination on the first ballot), Sanders would need to win the following contests by the margins indicated:

Guam: Sanders +43
West Virginia: Sanders +52
Kentucky: Sanders +35
Oregon: Sanders +57
Virgin Islands: Sanders +43
Puerto Rico: Sanders +17
California: Sanders +31
Montana: Sanders +62
New Jersey: Sanders +13
New Mexico: Sanders +18
South Dakota: Sanders +40
North Dakota: Sanders +67
District of Columbia: Tie

Sanders' IN win still puts him further behind pace than he was yesterday.

[Cha]

6. Poor BS.. he just got too far behind to ever catch up.. now who's faut is that?

Donna NoShock ??@NoShock
Boom Shakalaka!!! #MDforHRC
6:47 AM - 26 Apr 2016
45 45 Retweets 42 42 likes

https://theobamadiary.com/2016/04/26/chat-away-814/

Thank you for the stats on those states, SunSeeker~

[SunSeeker]

10. Yup, it's about the votes, and Sanders will never get enough to catch up.

Those spreads I list are the numbers Nate Silver et al. calculated that Sanders would have to win the vote by in order to get the necessary number of delegates to be on track for a majority. Since the delegates aren't awarded strictly proportionately but by precinct or district, if the vote is even moderately close, then the delegate count will be nearly tied.

Indiana is overwhelmingly white. Sanders won, but barely. Given the former, the latter was, at this point in the race, absolutely predicable. Right on the regression line.

Moreover, because Sanders needed to do better than a near-tie, he would now need to get 70% rather than 66% of the remaining votes, to tie — not win, tie — in the pledged delegate races. I emphasize: Sanders is in worse shape than he was in yesterday.

And CA is 39% white. Sanders is not going to get 70% of the remaining votes.

[Cha]

11. I really appreciate you explaining this to me/us, SunSeeker.. Also, I hear Hillary didn't

spend any ad money in Indiana.. that's amazingly close factoring that in.

I'm thinking the Super Dels take all that in account.. also the simple fact that Hillary's being efficient with her money.. with the GE uppermost in her mind.

That's what excellent candidates do.. Winners don't Whine..

[sarae]

13. haha <3 the graphic!

This graphic is so easy to understand, I'm not sure why some people are having a hard time with it.

[Kablooie]

7. But if it is a harbinger of California the nomination could be up for grabs.

[Cha]

8. You don't understand the Math.. you have to #FeeltheMath..

Hillary already has the numbers .. she's too far ahead of sanders for him to catch up... no way BS passes her.

BS came away with less delegates tonight than he had yesterday. He's still losing.

[RBInMaine]

9. Not at all. VERY different demographics, size, etc. Bernie is too far behind.

[Thinkingabout]

12. Hillary only has the need for 168 delegates, the more the merrier.

[Her Sister]

14. 538 on Sander's Math

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/indiana-primary-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17291359

HARRY ENTEN 9:44 PM
Tonight’s Win Is Not Likely To Help Sanders

According to a demographic model published last week by Nate, Sanders was expected to win the state of Indiana by 7 percentage points. That’s about the size of his lead right now. Indeed, you can look at the exit polls and see that Clinton is holding onto the demographic groups she usually wins. For instance, she is beating Sanders among black voters by 52 percentage points. That’s actually slightly better than she did among black voters in New York.

I know that some people will think tonight’s polling error in favor of Sanders could be predictive of errors to come. As I pointed out in a different post, it’s actually par for the course so far in this primary. It’s nothing like the Michigan polling error we saw earlier in the campaign. Sanders will need far larger polling errors going forward to have a shot at the nomination.

As I said at the top, Sanders will continue to fight on, and he will win votes. He looks like the favorite in the West Virginia primary, for example, which is coming up next. He’ll also do well in the remaining states in the middle of the country. Still, it looks like Clinton and Trump are going to be the nominees of their party.

DATE STATE OR TERRITORY NO. ELECTED DELEGATES SANDERS’S PATH-TO-2,026 PROJECTION POPULAR VOTE MARGIN NEEDED TO REACH TARGET
May 3 Indiana 83 53 Sanders +28
May 7 Guam 7 4 Sanders +14
May 10 West Virginia 29 21 Sanders +45
May 17 Oregon 61 49 Sanders +61
Kentucky 55 36 Sanders +31
June 4 Virgin Islands 7 4 Sanders +14
June 5 Puerto Rico 60 36 Sanders +20
June 7 California 475 299 Sanders +26
New Jersey 126 73 Sanders +16
New Mexico 34 20 Sanders +18
Montana 21 18 Sanders +71
South Dakota 20 15 Sanders +50
North Dakota 18 15 Sanders +67
June 14 D.C. 20 10 Tie

What Sanders’s path to 2,026 will look like if Tuesday polls are right


[div class="excerpt"]Based on these estimates, Sanders would need to beat Clinton by 26 percentage points in California, 28 points in Indiana and 16 points in New Jersey, all states where he trails Clinton in polling averages. He’d also need to win Western states like Oregon and Montana by 50 or more percentage points. No matter how much creative, mind-bending math they might be tempted to apply, Sanders and his campaign might have to “re-evaluate” his position in the race.

True, even an unexpectedly good day today wouldn’t help Sanders in the delegate count all that much. Suppose he splits pledged delegates with Clinton 192-192, perhaps as the result of upset wins in Pennsylvania and Connecticut. He’d still have to win 61.6 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to claim the majority.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/today-is-clintons-chance-to-end-the-groundhog-day-campaign/